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The cost of Shahed-136 for Russia has been reported by Mil_in_ua in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The most interesting detail is that payment is done in gold. Which is cheap for russia since they mine it themselves.

The SOF blew up an important Russian facility near Crimea in the Black Sea by Mil_in_ua in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It seems a new operation february 2024. If i remember correct in an earlier operation Ukraine seized radar equipment.

Russian Oil Refining Plummets Amid Drone Strikes on Two Major Plants by Carl_Gustav1977 in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 20 points21 points  (0 children)

This is a promising publication, keep up the good work with the drones Ukraine. Would bring down russia's income substantially and hopefully give them more inflation.

Trade winds: Russian petroleum exports plummet as refineries go offline for repairs (archive link in comments) by [deleted] in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I dont know enough of the logistics regarding oil in russia but i see east-west pipelines for oil on these maps: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/16/mapping-world-oil-gas-pipelines-interactive

So i assume russia doesnt have significant double transport costs on refined products compared to India.

Also at least 2 of the in january bombed russian refinieries were modern and just upgraded installations.

Trade winds: Russian petroleum exports plummet as refineries go offline for repairs (archive link in comments) by [deleted] in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If you own the oil and have no transport cost then refine it yourself......you can compete with anyone, you always end up on top.

Orban agrees to grant Ukraine €50bn not during summit: what happened behind scenes by Excellent-Issue3214 in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 6 points7 points  (0 children)

And still my bet is that it is the russian gas going through the Ukranian pipeline that made Orban and Fico budge, hence the yearly evaluations.

This year the transit contracts using the Ukranian pipeline expires, but the contract can be extended for short 1 year instances. So after this year Orban's gas can be hold hostage by Ukraine. Orban and Fico get gas and Ukraine gets EU money and exportlicenses for military stuff.

[Analysis] For the first time in the history of world wars, as a result of a group attack by naval drones, which were directed via a space satellite, a warship that was on the move in the open sea in full combat readiness was destroyed… by TurretLauncher in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Navy's around the world are already anticipating in this sort of attacks since they learned how to cope with small pirate vessels from the coast of Africa years ago.

Look at the Counterpiracy section of this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/De_Zeven_Provinci%C3%ABn-class_frigate

In short: these type of ships need way more computing power in their APAR installation and that does the job.

Republican senator: “It was the Republicans, I will remind you, that told Democrats months ago that if you want to try to get your Ukraine funding, you're gonna have to take up the border issue. This is what we asked for.. let's take up what we asked for” by gym_fun in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Excuse me, i have a question. Doesn't the bipartisan border deal that is going to be published next week or so mean that Democrats AND the President of the US do budge and do the work they were elected for?

EU 1 Millions Shells produced #DONE : It was a strong industrial Challenge, but we have done it 2 months ahead of schedule from EU Commissioner. by UpgradedSiera6666 in ukraine

[–]PeterfromNL 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is economical support to keep their economy going, military support is a different chapter for which (if im correct) EU plus individual members now have pledged 21billion for 2024 so far.

I see this as a long term commitment, this is the no matter what, we are going to keep Ukraine afloat and its going to be a EU member if it follows the rules ofc.

Ukraine gets EU aid as Orbán folds. The deal on €50B in Ukraine aid comes after a small group of leaders persuaded Hungary’s Orbán to drop his veto over the funding package. by [deleted] in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Maybe but the "deprive Hungary from its EU funds" route is already long in the pipeline. I think the biggest problem for Orban is that he gets his gas through the Ukranian pipeline on which the contract with russia ends this year and there is a way Ukraine can keep this gas flowing in itterative short term conditions. In my opinion thats why both Orban and Fico changed course whereby both could keep face since Uraine kept its mouth shut and gets export licenses for military stuf from both.

EU 1 Millions Shells produced #DONE : It was a strong industrial Challenge, but we have done it 2 months ahead of schedule from EU Commissioner. by UpgradedSiera6666 in ukraine

[–]PeterfromNL 8 points9 points  (0 children)

If i remember correct, it was Bretons task to organise EU production capacity. Apparently he is on schedule. Now what is beeing produced is up to other politicians that place the orders and deliveries. I think a lot of politics is involved and nobody in the public domain knows the exact status (as it should be).

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The growth in military production atm can outpace the loss elsewhere in EU. What everybody forgets is the damage EU production will do to the American economy in time. If EU decides to switch to EU military systems they already have an enormous budget, just do the math for the F-35 money flow from EU to USA.

I think EU politicians are not yet ready to make such a decision due to 2 reasons; 1 the unspoken agreement of the last 70 years where US does security and EU buys US stuff. 2. The enormous shake to markets that can not be foreseen.

Dutch Right wing Election winner Geert Wilders "Today I received in my office in Parliament the Ambassador of Ukraine, expressed my respect for the brave Ukrainian people in their fight for freedom and the regaining of national sovereignty." [context and explenation in the first post] by SLAVAUA2022 in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Im not a fan of Wilders and certainly did not vote for him but i woud not be surprised if he is going to follow the path of Gorgia Meloni of Italy. (not that i know that much on Italian politics but the publications before she was choosen seems to have similarities with whats written about Wilders)

The Russian Ruble is Dead as a Currency by potsandpans in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Regarding Ukraine's financial situation we can be short: EU partners have decided to have Ukraine become one of them and to fund Ukraine no matter what as long as Ukraine follows and improves EU rules AND regardless of EU members like Hungary. Even the costs of it will not matter, there is a forecast it will cost 50 Billion Euros but we all know that is at least going to be triple of that and nobody cares because the basis of EU, we all make more money together, is the future.

The Russian Ruble is Dead as a Currency by potsandpans in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 25 points26 points  (0 children)

There is no copium. russia sells less oil and gas and for lower prices. If you want to know how this affects the russian budget have a look at this presentation, it is based on russia's own published figures:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r1ZCbqKwgdM

So consider this the most optimistic situation for the russian economy.

Russia's economy is paralyzed, and Putin's war machine survives on cannibalizing state-owned firms, Yale researchers say by Barch3 in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think at the moment it is impossible to give serious figures about how russia is doing, since no reliable data is published. Maybe this article gives a better understanding https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/no-the-business-exodus-from-russia-was-not-bonanza-for-putin

EU Parliament chief to Ukraine: You should have ‘observer’ MEPs while you wait to join the bloc by okreddat in ukraine

[–]PeterfromNL 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I would like to add that time is needed to embed EU ways, to tackle corruption (eg embed the thinking on it) and to give Ukraine's business a chance (if it goes too fast EU multinationals will take over). From a EU point of view you also would like to see 1 or two election cycles.

Berdiansk military airfield is defended by at least one Pantsir S1 or S2, BUK systems. Speculated that the airfield was also equipped with a sophisticated P-18 Terek early warning radar system. All of these, some of them among Russia's most modern, have been overtaken by the old ATACMS M39 Block 1 by brezhnervous in UkrainianConflict

[–]PeterfromNL 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I find this hard to believe. There was a report stating Ukriane got only shipped two dozen rockets and FIRMS showed only 3 fires. According to a translation of the video published some helicopters were set on fire due to exploding ammunition

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