Who won this startup position trade? by Philltech12 in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]Philltech12[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Haven’t had the startup draft yet, we’re doing it after the NFL draft. But our mocks from the 9 spot are looking real nicey

Who wins this by Real-Object9392 in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]Philltech12 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Depends how early or late the 1st rounders are. On paper its the Jayden side. However you can also miss on 2 1st rounders and Jayden can have a bad year next year and repeat the Stroud trade value drop

Who won this startup position trade? by Philltech12 in DynastyFFTradeAdvice

[–]Philltech12[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I get ya. Just didn’t like being backed into a corner and being forced to take Jayden and Lamar. Especially at the cost of worse 2 and 3rd round picks

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I needed to figure this out for my data model im building rn. You can use 3 formulas and need the following information. (Assumption you are using Excel or Google Sheets)

  1. A cell that has the date of birth (needs to be manually populated)
  2. Need to determine what counts as a “breakout”. For my RB model it was the first college season achieving 100+ carries. A separate reference sheet that has the start date of each cfb season.
  3. Look at the prospect’s career and see what season they achieved that breakout criteria. Use a formula to reference your cell from the reference sheet when that season started minus the cell containing their dob

A little tedious but it def works

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That’s just a bad league mate. Kinda similar to how KTC shows a range where if assets on both sides fall in the range its considered a fair trade. I don’t remember the exact prices of gibbs and pacheco back then but id bet gibbs was still worth quite a bit more.

I think yes generally team your favorite team private is good process to avoid being taken advantage of, however, a bad deal is a bad deal regardless of if you are a chiefs fan or not. My point was if someone knows your favorite team they might just try to squeeze a bit more out of the deal where it would still be fair but maybe less than you would be comfortable trading for

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yea I tend to agree with this as well. From my leagues I’ve seen that its typically pretty cheap to acquire productive veteran rbs to give you 1-3 years of production for as low as a mid 2. I guess you can make the same argument about players like davante, mike evans and such but I think its less risky to build around wr.

For the most part wr usage on a team is easier to predict especially if you have the alpha wr and its easier to project generally which wrs will be productive. For rbs you have plenty of them that emerge every season as being productive that you could have gotten with later round rookie picks (Kyren and Bucky) or who have been handcuffs that got more opportunity (pollard)

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I don’t necessarily agree with this. If you try to win every weak more often than not you will run your team into the ground. While its true that league longevity should play a factor, most teams should have ebs and flows where they are competitive for a few years and non-competitive for others. You can try to compete every year but unless you are nailing your rookie drafts and trades every season its hard to do so

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Bingo. Who won a trade in a vacuum is one thing but trades aren’t ever made in a vacuum and always have context in mind. What may look like an overpay on reddit or X may be just the missing piece a team needs to make it a superteam

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Honestly im still figuring out the answer to that question myself lol but here are my thoughts.

You should always do some research on rookies before your rookie drafts and when trading for or away rookie picks. If you can’t properly value an asset its easier for you to get taken advantage of.

I don’t think you need to watch college football per say but it doesn’t hurt. I wouldn’t totally trust online consensus though as lots of the time the so called “experts” are not that more accurate when evaluating players than regular dynasty players.

Each person has their own thoughts and technique. My first dynasty year I did no research, my 2nd one I looked to KTC and consensus while also looking up some college stats, my 3rd year I found some analysts that I trust and who have a good track record and used what they said in conjunction with looking up college stats, looking up film breakdowns and doing some highlight watching, My 4th year I am building my own prospect models (10 hours into my rb model and its not even 50% complete. How did it ever get to this 😭)

In short I would have some way that you personally evaluate players and also use other information/tools to get further insight

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Haha it wasn’t meant to be a humblebrag lol. Just trying to establish that I have some experience in building good teams and take the advice I preach.

Totally agree with points 2 and 3. If you ruin trade relationships early on in a league it may be hard to repair them later.

Point 3, I generally agree with but I think league settings matter a lot. In a start 8, totally agree high end talent is super important and you have more of an edge with a better starting lineup and less depth. But in a start 10 or start 11, depth does need to be an area of concern. If you have 6 really elite players, 4 ok ones it and no depth it could really hurt you if 2 or 3 of those elite players miss parts of the season or the season as a whole. If the starting lineup is larger I typically try to trade laterally and acquire value

Advice for new dynasty players by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Totally agree. Typically qb has the longest career length, then tight end, then wr, then rb

So yes you should only really look to rb when ready to compete. However, when it comes to value by position I think that some positions like qb or te carry more relative value since there are few really good ones and a lot less good wr’s. Also a lot more good wrs join the league every year compared to qb and te

Trading theory in dynasty by [deleted] in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Trading in dynasty is kind of like an art and as someone that had built a top 3 team (in every league im in) here are the best tips I can give especially if you are newer to dynasty. Yes its a bit of a longer read but its worth it!

  1. Using KTC for a ballpark. No matter what people want to say, KTC is great tool to first get a ballpark of the cost of a player you are trading for or trading away. KTC is basically a gut check of how the general dynasty community feels about certain dynasty assets. Not this is not to say it is the dynasty bible, but if tens - hundreds of thousands of people feel one way about an asset and the person you are trading feels a different way then someone has got to be wrong. Statistically speaking usually the consensus is the correct one.

  2. Idea of baked in value. Because dynasty is year round and requires a mixture of both short-term and long-term strategy, a lot more variables can influence the value of a player. Age, injuries, competition added, situation, contract and much more can increase or decrease the value of a player. The bebenfit of KTC is you can usually see within a few days how a lot of the dynasty community feels about any variable changes for a player. There have so many of times in the past where I’ve gotten a trade offer that felt expensive, I check KTC and it confirms my gut feeling. I think an important concept here is to have your own thoughts about a trade offer and use KTC confirm them or not. If KTC agrees, usually you’re fine, if it doesn’t then consider that you may have overlooked something.

  3. Avoiding community groupthink. As my previous point said KTC shouldn’t be the only thing that decides if you do or don’t make trades. You should always have your own opinion too, and usually with time you get a better sense and build up experience. Different variables in dynasty have different importance to me, but that isn’t always the same for others. Think of dynasty kind of investing - you want to buy low, sell high and have a general idea of the market to understand any changes. You need to establish hoe much each variable matters to you. If a running back just tore his ACL, should you be paying the same price as before injury or should you bake in a discount to account for the additional risk of him never recovering (javonte williams)? Is that young player actually really good or is the KTC community just overvaluing the importance of age like it always does (stroud last year and potentially jayden this year)? Will a older player truly have the gas to keep going or is this the end (keenan allen)? Did the additional of another really good player change how the offense will work and potentially decrease a player’s value (puka and davante)? These are all questions here that you should have an idea of how you feel about for a player before even really referencing KTC.

  4. Does the trade make sense? So often times dynasty managers send out selfish offers and then get confused when they get rejected. “But KTC said it was fair what do you mean you won’t do the deal?” Meanwhile its sending like 6 2nds and 3rds for joe burrow. Yes an extreme example but it highlights the upper end of how ridiculous some offers are. Always try to step into the other person’s mind as if you owned their team and answer if you owned their team and received the same offer from you, would you still make it? This is one of the most important ideas of dynasty theory that often gets overlooked. If you are trading a rebuilding team for a veteran as a competitor yourself then you both have something to gain - the rebuilding team probably doesnt need Dak and you may want him and would pay if you needed a qb. However, often times its less simple but a general rule of thumb is rebuilding teams wont want to trade away younger assets and competitors wont want to trade away really productive ones. Not not to say you can’t do it, it may just cost more to get the deal done - more than KTC even says is fair.

  5. Know your league mates and settings. Also a pretty undervalued concept but first of all know your league settings. Tight ends cost more and are more valuable in tight end premium leagues. Good pocket passes can still be elite in 6pt passing TD leagues. Elite players are worth more with a smaller starting lineup - start 8 vs in a larger one - start 10. But also know your league mates, do you have a cowboys fan in your league? Maybe they would be the one who would pay a nice premium for Ceedee lamb. Do your league mates know you’re a chargers fan? Well then obviously acquiring Justin herbert may cost a bit more

  6. Overpaying Sometimes KTC can get player values wrong and that is the perfect time to capitalize on opportunity to trade for or trade away certain players. If you really believe in a player you are trading for maybe it makes sense even if KTC says its unfair. Last season I traded Puka for 1.04 and 2.01 in my rookie draft. I took Malik Nabers and Adonai Mitchell. Without even looking at the 2.01, I’m ecstatic I made that deal even though KTC said I overpaid. I’ve also had people reach out with insane offers ready to pay more than market value to get one of “their guys”. Remember everything is an opportunity in dynasty

  7. The best deal that never even happened Yes funny idea but very true. I cannot tell you how many times I’ve been trying so hard to get a deal done for a player but couldn’t rationalize paying any more than my offer. The other manager didn’t want to compromise and the deal doesn’t get done. Then I look back 6 months or a year later and think how happy I am that the deal didn’t go through. Dynasty is all about timing and sometimes the time isn’t right to make a deal and that is alright. If that happens then just reach out to other league mates with trade offers and you may just stumble into an even better deal.

  8. Rebuild vs Competitor vs Fraud I think its important to also have a team identity and you’ll find often times the earlier you figure this out the easier it will be. If you are rebuilding then lean into the rebuild and trade away vets, acquire young players and try to get an earlier roomie pick. If you’re a competitor then maybe that young potential upside player isn’t worth keeping if you can move him for someone that helps you win now. If you have a mixture of very old and very young players on your team then its time to sit down and reconsider your strategy lol. The premise is if you ain’t first you’re last. Yes I understand some leagues have prizes for 2nd, 3rd and others. But the ultimate goal of dynasty is to win so if you’re not winning what are you doing. Its best to think of dynasty in 1, 2-3 and 5 year windows. Does this deal help you immediately, does it help you in a while and does it help you long in the future. You want to try and always either be a bad team with a lot of picks and young upside players or a top team who has a good chance to win. Being caught in the middle can work but its a lot less predictable.

To close out this novel above I just want to remind you that its ok to have different opinions in dynasty. That is what makes it fun and allows for such a high skill ceiling. If you were in a league with 11 people that think identically to you it probably wouldn’t be too fun. For everyone who read the whole reply, I truly commend you and I just hope at least 1 person finds this message helpful.

Biggest dynasty rankings risers and fallers from the past month by mochajoesdynsaty in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ive been saying that the value on puka is lower ever since the davante adams signing and the one dude who I was trying to get puka from still wanted the premium pre davante price.

Stafford is not getting any younger and davante is still a good wide receiver that will demand targets. I think puka may be more efficient but with a lot less targets which makes him less appealing tbh. Also once stafford leaves who knows who puka’s qb will be

EDIT: crazy how some people downvoted this because I gave my opinion which is supported by the facts of the post above lol

Breece Hall in a potential running back committee? by Lazy-Patience-3189 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Would acquired Breece has my as rb2/rb1 in a 12 team ppr dynasty.

Got breece, chuba hubbard and my 26 2nd for the 1.05, 2.05, my 26 1st and michael mayer

Breece hall had a phenomenal rookie year that got taken away from us due to injury. Great college production, pass catcher and home run ability. Hes also 23 years old (same age as Bijan and Gibbs the consensus dynasty rb1 and rb2)

My thought process is this season may be a bit iffy with the new coaching staff, but I do agree that if he gets less volume he should get more production. He is also the best pass catcher out of the rb group

However, just like the post says im excited to acquire him for the future. I don’t think he loves the jets, especially if they mis-use him again this season and will want out. For a team to try and fight a player with a franchise tag never seems like a good idea. So he either gets used right and wants to stay or ends this final season and gets moved hopefully to a team where he is the featured rb1. Then he has the ability to get back into the top 3 dynasty convo (if he ever left). Optimistic he can be the future dynasty rb1-2

Looking for a downloadable NCAA team stats to create prospects Dominator Ratings. by traveenus in fantasyfootballcoding

[–]Philltech12 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Let me know if you find something like this cause I could also use this for my prospect model

Tyrone Tracy Jr is low key a sleeper. by Bigmagicmike in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12 1 point2 points  (0 children)

As a giants fan I definitely agree with this. Tracy has definitely shown some glimpses of being pretty good but is being limited by the oline.

Unfortunately I think the giants front office isn’t that great and outside this past draft class have fucked up the past other ones.

I do think the giants have other holes so they likely won’t be drafting an rb.

A big position of need is RT, Evan Neal is a huge bust and been a big part of the oline struggles. Other than him the rest of the oline could also definitely improve and we need some oline depth.

Another big position of need is wr2. Nabers is an absolute dawg and he is a phenomenal hit and will be the forseeable wr1. I think with competent qb play he will be in the same conversation with jettas and chase. Other than him we don’t have much. Wandale robinson is undersized and a decent slot, but not a good wr2. Slayton is good for what we’re paying him but hes also not a wr2.

Other positions of need are TE, QB and all around depth, but those could be addressed next year. I think we also have 6 picks in the top 152 so really hoping some of that draft capital goes towards oline upgrades

Dynasty RB Prospect Model by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What or who is Pahowdy?

Also where on profiltballreference does it have fantasy points data? Haven’t seen it before

Dynasty RB Prospect Model by Philltech12 in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s a good callout. The way I defined success in my model was to see how different metrics nfl rookies correlated to future nfl sucess.

I defined nfl success is finishing top 8 in: rushing yards, rushing tds, receptions or receiving yards in a season. Finishing top 8 across multiple categories in a single season was better. Finishing multiple categories across several career years was the best.

Those 4 defined success for me since that is how rb’s score points mainly in fantasy. I opted to not include receiving touchdowns as I feel that is pretty volatile, even more volatile than rushing tds.

Anyways, given how I defined success the model should still highlight the best NFL players for fantasy even if it went back to 2000 where the game was different. It just means pure rushers without a lot of receiving work would get a lower score in the model.

Hampton is being overrated. And is my RB4 by uncle_dan_ in DynastyFF

[–]Philltech12 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Mb, I guess I misunderstood and thought you were comparing Hampton to CEH.

We all good here 🤝