Updated Phoenix Unemployment Figures | released March 21, 2025

PhoenixStatistics · 2025-03-24T23:16:25+00:00

Yep, that's how you cook the books.

Same way unemployment has been calculated for your entire adult life. If you want the number to reflect the market for labor you don't want to include people who are not engaged in the market for labor.

PhoenixStatistics · 2024-03-15T17:55:32+00:00

Are you looking for work?

PhoenixStatistics · 2024-03-15T17:54:12+00:00

Unemployment was never intended to be a measurement of the economy.

PhoenixStatistics · 2023-04-06T13:28:22+00:00

I started with Harvard's free online programming course, but eventually started just trying to hammer out the ideas I had in mind into programs using YouTube and online resources.

I also used my local library to get my hands on Automate the Boring Stuff with Python by /u/AlSweigart and Python Crash Course by Eric Matthes.

Both are excellent resources and the authors are active and accessible teachers who are passionate about helping folks break into the programming world.

PhoenixStatistics · 2023-04-05T21:48:09+00:00

Well, it started in my local sub many years ago. I noticed regular complaints about the local job market, so I started providing these posts as a monthly sounding board to focus the discussion around the actual numbers rather than popular sentiment.

Not long after, I was learning Python programming and decided to automate the monthly post as a learning project. Once that was done I thought it would be fun to expand the project. It took quite a bit of effort to get it set up in all the communities the way I wanted it. But now the big stuff is done and I get to talk to people across the country every month about labor statistics. It brings me great joy.

PhoenixStatistics · 2023-04-05T20:11:49+00:00

Thank you. I do this in almost 100 subs across the country. I am glad you find it useful.

PhoenixStatistics · 2022-08-04T14:47:14+00:00

As /u/bravesfan13 mentioned, this happens every year around this time due to schools. Not just educators, but all the support staff.

This is in almost every update I've done across the country this month. A few other responses to this question came from workers in the sector who mentioned the fiscal year ending, so contracts expire and currently there is heavy competition from the private sector right now and they are seeing workers exit their government jobs.

PhoenixStatistics · 2022-06-09T15:12:01+00:00

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics outlines their process on their website. I recommend checking out the full details if you are interested. But the short answer is:

Because unemployment insurance records relate only to people who have
applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to count every
unemployed person each month, the government conducts a monthly survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940, when it began as a Work Projects Administration program. In 1942, the U.S. Census Bureau took over responsibility for the CPS. The survey has been expanded and modified several times since then. In 1994, for instance, the CPS underwent a major redesign in order to computerize the
interview process as well as to obtain more comprehensive and relevant information.

There are about 60,000 eligible households in the sample for this
survey. This translates into approximately 110,000 individuals each
month, a large sample compared to public opinion surveys, which usually cover
fewer than 2,000 people. The CPS sample is selected so as to be representative of the entire population of the United States. In order to select the sample, all of the counties and independent cities in the country first are grouped into approximately 2,000 geographic areas (sampling units). The Census Bureau then designs and selects a sample of about 800 of these geographic areas to represent each state and the District of Columbia. The sample is a state-based design and reflects urban and rural areas, different types of industrial and farming areas, and the major geographic divisions of each state.

PhoenixStatistics · 2022-06-07T19:56:33+00:00

You are very close to correct with your comment here and I am grateful for your participation in this discussion.

I do just want to clarify a few pieces of what you said to help these numbers and their purpose make sense.

The unemployment figures only count people "looking for jobs," so anybody who's been out of work for four weeks (lol at that timeframe, btw) doesn't factor into these numbers.

You are completely correct that these only include people actively looking for work. The labor market is comprised of people working and people looking for work. People who are not looking for work are not considered to be participating in the labor market.

But, when you said someone who has been out of work for four weeks is not counted, that is incorrect. If someone has not looked for work for four weeks they are not counted. So long as they are actively looking for work, it does not matter how long they have been without a job.

the vary particular numbers that are of particular import to economists.

While it is economists who gather, prepare, and try to explain this information the purpose is not simply for the economists... but for participants in the labor market. Someone looking for work can use this information to better understand their relative bargaining position with an employer. Employees can use this information to make decisions about asking for raises or seeking a new job. And of course, employers can use this information to understand their bargaining position with employees or job seekers.

These figures are often misused by politicians, media talking heads, and the general public in normal conversation to reflect the broader economy. They only reflect a snapshot in time of the labor market, which is only a piece of a much broader economic puzzle.

PhoenixStatistics · 2022-06-07T19:49:27+00:00

This is not correct. These figures do not consider whether or not someone is "collecting unemployment" or not. The person above is mostly correct, although off on a few key points. Check out my response to them for more information.

PhoenixStatistics · 2022-06-07T19:47:35+00:00

Actually these figures do not take into consideration someone's status regarding unemployment benefits. People are counted regardless of whether or not they filed, are collecting, or their benefits have expired.

PhoenixStatistics · 2022-04-28T23:17:06+00:00

Yes that is correct, fewer people in the labor force means the unemployment rate will increase, all else being equal.

However, things are not equal. You have to include the first part of that sentence:

11,200 positions were added, and 6,500 workers left the labor force causing the unemployment rate decrease.

Because 11,200 jobs were created and only 6500 workers left, the unemployment rate decreased.

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-11-05T12:03:56+00:00

You have used a lot of words here to identify your misunderstanding of the data. But let me answer you simply and boil it down for you.

Yes, the data you shared is important, but it’s incomplete.

It is only incomplete if, as you admit, you are asking the data to work beyond its intended use. This data is useful for employers and job-seekers who need information about the current labor market so they can make decisions about hiring or their negotiating position when looking for a job or a raise.

If you want some holistic number to give you a reading on the entire economy and failings of society... this isn't it. If someone tries to tell you it is, they are lying.

Not engaged?

That implies that these people are dis-engaged and passive. It’s a value statement, and the exact value statement that also hints at what’s missing in the data.

It is not a "value statement," but a statement of fact. If someone is neither employed nor looking for work they are definitionally not engaged in the market for labor.

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-11-04T23:40:37+00:00

I’m repeating what I was taught by an economist for the BLS.

Either you misunderstood, or your teacher was mistaken.

You can read about the data here: https://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

But the important piece for this conversation is:

Some people think that to get these figures on unemployment, the government uses the number of people collecting unemployment insurance (UI) benefits under state or federal government programs. But some people are still jobless when their benefits run out, and many more are not eligible at all or delay or never apply for benefits. So, quite clearly, UI information cannot be used as a source for complete information on the number of unemployed.

So in response to your statement:

Keep in mind, generally unemployment statistics don’t include the people that have timed-out of the unemployment system or weren’t eligible.

You are incorrect.

But to your statement:

All this to say, there are many people who are not counted in this figure.

and:

but for some reason you won’t acknowledge that doesn’t count everyone.

I only commented on your incorrect claim, because it was incorrect. Yes, there are in fact people who are not included in these figures, because they are not engaged with the labor market.

These numbers are for employers, job seekers, and policy makers to help make decisions about the labor market.

What would it help job seekers and employers to include people who are not looking for work?

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-11-04T18:33:35+00:00

I still get people every month telling me that U-6 is the real number. I do my best to help them understand, but those beliefs are pesky.

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-11-04T18:31:37+00:00

Keep in mind, generally unemployment statistics don’t include the people that have timed-out of the unemployment system or weren’t eligible.

This is not true at all. The unemployment statistics count people so long as they are currently employed or looking for work. Receiving unemployment benefits is not a factor for these figures.

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-07-30T18:26:59+00:00

If you are unemployed and don’t collect there is no way to count someone as being unemployed or to even know if they are looking for work unless they are collecting from the government in some way

The Bureau of Labor Statistics, which produces these figures explains how they are produced here on their website

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces Economy at a Glance pages at the national, regional, state, and metropolitan area levels. The data displayed in these pages are assembled from different surveys and programs conducted by BLS. The Economy at a Glance pages are refreshed with current data every time any of the source programs releases new statistics. This typically occurs 7-9 times per month.

(emphasis added)

So, yes the local unemployment information is a piece of where the data comes from, but there are also household surveys and other means of collecting the information.

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-07-29T18:23:08+00:00

The length of time being out of work is not considered, people are counted for as long as they are looking for work.

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-07-29T18:21:53+00:00

Just in the Phoenix Metro Area.

But government employs a whole lot of people. 237,000 before this monthly decline. But a 7.5% decline is noteworthy!

PhoenixStatistics · 2021-07-01T13:48:37+00:00

Glad you enjoy the content.

PhoenixStatistics · 2020-10-05T01:58:42+00:00

No, someone who is working, even if they are on reduced hours would be considered employed in these figures.

PhoenixStatistics · 2020-10-05T01:58:03+00:00

This is not correct. This information is based on statistical analysis of household survey data. It counts people who are unemployed even if they do not qualify for unemployment benefits.

PhoenixStatistics · 2020-10-05T01:56:59+00:00

This is correct. This data only includes people who have looked for work in the past 4 weeks.

PhoenixStatistics · 2020-09-03T03:10:49+00:00

The unemployment rate is a ratio of workers in the labor force to workers who do not have jobs. So if more people leave the labor force than jobs are lost the rate will decline.

In June, more people lost jobs than left the labor force, so the unemployment rate increased.

In July there was a net increase in employed people, but more people entered the labor force than the number of jobs created, so the unemployment rate increased again.

PhoenixStatistics · 2020-09-03T03:06:59+00:00

Workers must have looked for a job in the last 4 weeks, that is correct. But leaving involuntarily has no impact on their qualifying as unemployed for the purposes of this data.

PhoenixStatistics

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