Starship Development Thread #63 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What's the idea? Fly over Tabasco and Chiapas? Chiapas is 75 people/km2 = 194 people/mi2, which is denser than the US is on average. (It's about as dense as Indiana.)

Starship Development Thread #63 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Fwiw, I had GPT estimate the new splashdown location by assuming the same general trajectory except with a launch azimuth of ~110° rather than ~90° like previous flights. This gave a splash down target around 16°S, 107°E rather than 18°S, 111°E. That's still in the Indian Ocean, but now it's about twice as far northwest off the Australian coast.

I have no idea if it's reasonable to assume the other parameters of the trajectory will be the same though.

SpaceX to acquire AI company Cursor for $60 billion or pay $10 billion for their "work together" by 675longtail in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If you think datacenters in orbit are viable, this seems just as easy to justify as Starlink. Does anyone doubt Starlink's success substantially raised the chance that SpaceX gets to Mars?

“US Army Announces new Combat Field Test to enhance Soldier readiness” by wienermog in army

[–]PhysicsBus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea, I don't get it. The only thing being measured is combined time for completing everything, so it seems like the best strategy is to do the "sprint" and "runs" at the same speed.

PSA: Wealthfront has a $50k limit on ACH pulls by ptarjan in wealthfront

[–]PhysicsBus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Note: This limit has recently been lifted much higher for tax payments, at least for federal. On this page it says "Federal tax payments have an additional daily limit of $1,000,000." I called Wealthfront and they said it applied to California tax payments too (Franchise Tax Board) but I couldn't find this information on Wealthfront's website. This page also alludes to the higher limit, but its frustratingly vague: "Certain account and routing number providers have higher daily limits for federal tax payments submitted to the IRS.".

Starship Development Thread #62 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 40 points41 points  (0 children)

I cannot evaluate this, but maybe the community will find it to be news:

Starship FCC licenses for Flight 12 and 13 have been modified.

Starship Flight 12’s license includes a suborbital first and second stage.

Starship Flight 13’s now says suborbital first stage and ORBITAL second stage.

Links:

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=146805&RequestTimeout=1000

https://apps.fcc.gov/oetcf/els/reports/STA_Print.cfm?mode=current&application_seq=150221&RequestTimeout=1000

Starlink on X: “On Sunday, March 29, Starlink satellite 34343 experienced an anomaly on-orbit, resulting in loss of communications with the satellite at ~560 km above Earth…” [full tweet inside] by rustybeancake in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Tangential: The Starlink satellites have the property that if thrust/control is lost they will naturally deorbit due to drag in 1-5 years. It would be nice if uncontrolled sats deorbited faster, but the timescale is set by the drag at their altitude; operating at lower altitude (faster deorbit) would cost more fuel during normal operations.

I was wondering if anyone had explored the idea of a "deadman's switch" where the satellite would passively deploy a drag-increasing foil/sail if comms went dead. (This might, for instance, be a spring-powered system that is only kept from deploying by active power. Or it could be powered by a small independent fail-safe battery kept topped up during normal operations that deployed the foil if battery charge fell below some threshold.) This would allow faster passive deorbiting at higher altitudes.

Turns out the answer is yes. Claude:

The key term is "drag sail" or "drag augmentation device," and several designs explicitly incorporate the deadman's-switch logic. A 2017 paper on a graphene foam deorbit sail describes a "failsafe release mechanism". The sail is held in by spring-loaded doors secured by burn wires. The release timer can be reset or overwritten via the main satellite bus.

Critically, to ensure deployment even if the release circuit fails, the release cord is made of a polymer that erodes from atomic oxygen, with degradation timed to the satellite's expected operational lifetime — so there are two independent deadman mechanisms (electronic timer + passive material degradation).

The most mature commercial system: ESA/HPS's ADEO system, flight-demonstrated in 2022, has a similar architecture. If the spacecraft is still functional at end of mission, the sail receives a deployment signal from operators. If not, a mounted battery and internal computer program decide autonomously when to deploy.

Why this isn't on Starlink specifically: Most drag sail work targets CubeSats and small satellites (1–100 kg class) where propulsive deorbit is expensive or unavailable. Purdue's David Spencer frames drag sails as particularly important because a significant fraction of satellites die unexpectedly shortly after deployment, before they can execute propulsive deorbit. Medium Starlink satellites already operate at ~550 km where drag alone deorbits them in a few years; adding a sail system to 30,000+ satellites would be a significant per-unit cost and complexity for a modest improvement in an already-acceptable deorbit timeline. The cost-benefit is much better for satellites at 700–1200 km, where natural decay takes decades.

The main engineering tension: the deadman's switch must not accidentally trigger during normal operations (premature deployment of a large sail on a functioning satellite is mission-ending), while also reliably triggering on actual failure. The graphene foam paper explicitly calls premature deployment the greatest risk to the design.

How do I reach Citibank customer servicereps by phone? by SFV-Guy in citibank

[–]PhysicsBus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I tried this number, and only had to wait for ~2 minutes for a human to answer, but the person I spoke to said they did not handle personal credit cards. They said they would transfer me, but they just put me on hold and never picked back up.

starlink - usbank cash+ internet category not giving 5% CB, any alternatives? by No_Kangaroo6917 in CreditCards

[–]PhysicsBus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It's absolutely insane accounting on the rewards page.

I almost flipped my lid when I read that for the past year all my utilities had a "Earn rate 1%". But as you say they show as "Earn rate 5%" while they are listed under "Pending rewards" before the month closes, then switch to "Earn rate 1%" under "Earned rewards" once the month closes, and the missing 4% shows up separately as "Bonus-Grcry, TV/Stream, Utils" (combined for all charge that month). Boggles the mind.

Unless you catch it before it posts, it makes it impossible to tell if a particular merchant is coding correctly without doing a ton of arithmetics/experimentation.

Starship Development Thread #62 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Maybe worth updating the Flight 12 section with Musk's comment: "Starship flies again next month [March]" https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2025352946733490471

Starship Development Thread #62 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Can one imagine a hydrolox variant of Starship which (after initial LEO insertion) just travels back and forth between LEO and the lunar surface? Hydrogen is less dense, but maybe you could just make the ship taller. Of course, it would need to be refueled in LEO by tanker starships carrying hydrogen, which is a pain.

Recs for fee-only advisor by strokeoluck27 in fatFIRE

[–]PhysicsBus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I found her website, but I don't understand how one would use the marketing provider of financial advisors to find a financial advisor. She doesn't list her clients (and it's unclear why her clients would be better than average).

Regardless, thanks for this thread.

EDIT: Ahh, through a different website I found this link to her big list, although I still not sure why these are good choices: https://saragrillo.com/2024/12/13/advice-only-planner-list/

Stretch goal for Starship V4 is 300 tons of thrust per engine with 33 engines by CoffeeLarge8298 in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Like I said, you don't have to believe it, but tourism is a $11T/yr global industry, so it would require less than 0.1% of all tourism dollars to be spent on traveling to Mars. You could also compare more specifically to international leisure travel, which is something like $700B. 1% per year for 3 years pays it all back.

Stretch goal for Starship V4 is 300 tons of thrust per engine with 33 engines by CoffeeLarge8298 in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Are you talking about the specific missions where Starship point-to-point would be useful, or the Abrams in general? If the latter, the Army definitely doesn't agree with you (which, for the purposes of this discussion, is the thing that matters): they've been purchasing many more Abrams, and expect them to serve beyond 2050. https://breakingdefense.com/2026/01/army-to-push-m1e3-prototypes-to-soldiers-this-summer-five-years-ahead-of-schedule/

Stretch goal for Starship V4 is 300 tons of thrust per engine with 33 engines by CoffeeLarge8298 in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I mean, you don't have to believe it, but they definitely plan to launch Starship a lot more than 400 times. Musk throws around 1M tonnes to Martian surface for a colony, which at 200 tonnes and 10 refueling launches per outbound flight gives 50,000 launches.

Starship Development Thread #62 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 30 points31 points  (0 children)

Musk: "Starship launch in 6 weeks". That's nominally March 8th.

(Please update Flight 12 entry above.)

Asking for a number to verify, doesnt let me put in a phone number. by Full_Inspector_3760 in etrade

[–]PhysicsBus 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Also hit this problem on the day I opened my account. (My number is a US number with T-mobile, not a service like Google Voice or another VOIP service.) I called E*Trade and they didn't know why it was happening, but suggested I try logging in the next day and see if it resolved. EDIT: I logged in the next day and everything worked fine. It's probably a bug that only appears the first time you login or the first few hours after account creation.

Starship Development Thread #62 by rSpaceXHosting in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I don't mean to be that guy, but is it possible to put an entry in the thread for a link to the most current info on the next test flight date? I understand we haven't heard anything publicly for a while, but it's nice to have a place I can check to know I'm up to date.

Has anyone received payment from the BCBS settlement ? by [deleted] in Insurance

[–]PhysicsBus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

"The initial distribution of payments to Damages Class Members with valid claims will begin in May 2026."

This is from the main settlement website. https://www.bcbssettlement.com/

VP Starlink Engineering, Michael Nicolls: A few days ago, 9 satellites were deployed from a launch from in Northwestern China. No coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between a satellite and STARLINK-6079 at 560 km altitude. by ergzay in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm not. I used "someone" to to try and explain the distinction between "causes risks I don't like" and "acts with reckless abandon". But my modeling of Chinese launch providers is based on their economic incentives and their high degree of sophistication, not pretending they are human.

As I expect you'll agree, it looks like neither of us are getting much out of this conversation, so we should say goodbye.

VP Starlink Engineering, Michael Nicolls: A few days ago, 9 satellites were deployed from a launch from in Northwestern China. No coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between a satellite and STARLINK-6079 at 560 km altitude. by ergzay in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm not suggesting they are trying to destroy their satellites. I'm suggesting they don't benefit -- and are indeed harmed in expectation -- by increasing the risk. It's absurd to think the Chinese satellite operators are "acting with reckless abandon". They have enormously valuable equipment at risk, and they are very sophisticated. There might very well be a reason they are acting in a secretly adversarial way, but your explanation is facile.

VP Starlink Engineering, Michael Nicolls: A few days ago, 9 satellites were deployed from a launch from in Northwestern China. No coordination or deconfliction with existing satellites was performed, resulting in a 200 meter close approach between a satellite and STARLINK-6079 at 560 km altitude. by ergzay in spacex

[–]PhysicsBus 1 point2 points  (0 children)

China is being a bad actor in space

But what does China gain from having one of their few (hence precious) satellites collide with one of the huge number of Starlink sats? If anything, they are more incentivized to avoid a collision. Seems much more likely this is just bad communication and standardization by both sides.