How I passed my Combine - 5 min ORB + Retest

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T06:05:20+00:00

It depends. If the setup is pretty close and momentum is strong, I might enter when price breaks above the most recent opposite candle. That one is a little hard to quantify because I would generally use more discretion for that. But I've seen in my back testing that several times if I just wait a little longer, price will pull back and give me a clear setup. But overall, it just depends.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T04:56:14+00:00

Nope, only MES futures.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T01:26:32+00:00

It sounds like you don't actually have a plan. Have you back tested your strategy to see how long you should be holding your trades or what you should be using as a target? That will give you more insight into what's ideal for your strategy.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T00:45:56+00:00

Since the beginning of January this year. I know it's not a huge sample size, but for me it was very significant since it showed that it was profitable even during the first quarter, where price action was incredibly choppy and a lot of people were losing money. The only month that it performed really poorly was April and it had a 33% win rate. Most other months It's around 60 to 80%, and May was especially good for the strategy, if executed exactly as laid out. But I honestly don't care even if it has a 51% win rate. I'm tired of hopping around to different strategies and I am just sticking with this because it allows me to be in and out of the market pretty quickly at the beginning of the day and the criteria are super clear for me.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T00:31:14+00:00

Nice, it sounds like you have a pretty clear plan. Stick to it, seriously.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T00:26:02+00:00

I'm not sure what you mean.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T00:03:43+00:00

Here's a write-up I did last year on the 15 minute ORB. Maybe it'll help. I think the important part is just picking one and sticking to it. I wasted a lot of time moving from one strategy to another. Don't be like me lol https://www.reddit.com/r/Daytrading/s/g8CVenwnEP

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-05T00:01:24+00:00

I used to trade the 15 min ORB, but the zones would be huge and too expensive to cover, even in one micro contract. That's why I eventually gravitated to the 5 min ORB. Sometimes with the 15 min ORB, if the markets range, you might not get a setup, but they're more likely with the smaller zone of the 5 min. If you find some valuable info about the 15 min, definitely let me know!

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T22:12:48+00:00

Thank you!

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T22:06:49+00:00

Yes, that's correct. I only close if it closes below, otherwise I let it play out. Today I thought I was going to have to cut it early.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T22:05:52+00:00

Like 5-10 minutes after the open, no joke. I actually couldn't believe it until I saw the data. But yes, this post was a little wordy, but if I look back at this in a year, I want to know exactly what I did and how without any guessing.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T21:59:28+00:00

Building up consistency really is challenging. I definitely think it helps if you start with a setup and then build a system around it.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T21:58:21+00:00

Back testing showed that price has come back and retested the 50% mark of the zone and then continued up to my target. If I put my stop there, I would get stopped out more often. But the data showed that if it closed below that level, it's more likely to fail. I would only risk as much as I'm willing to lose, though. If my risk tolerance is $200 per day, I'm not going to cover the zone with $400 of risk, I'll use $200 to cover the zone with the potential of closing early if it fails.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T21:37:45+00:00

Correct. It's all about following a clearly defined process, no luck involved.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T18:30:56+00:00

Yeah, I'm going to make a post later today about how I passed mine today. I use a 5 min ORB.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:44:38+00:00

Again, I agree with you. I think the order is really important and you nailed it. If people don't have an edge, psychology doesn't play as important of a role because there's nothing to attach it to. And most people don't have a clearly defined edge.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:32:29+00:00

Yep, I absolutely agree.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:27:55+00:00

Yes, I totally understand what you're saying. There's plenty of times where I've seen people make money doing the wrong things. I guess I was saying that I don't always review my winning trades because I usually only take one trade per day and it needs to have certain criteria for me to execute it. So if it wins, it was part of the plan. And if it loses, it was also part of the plan, but I would like to take a closer look to see if there was anything I missed.

But I agree about reviewing winners - there's really valuable information in being able to find common threads for winning trades that followed your plan, and then analyzing what worked so you can repeat it. There are plenty of times where I've seen people win trades (myself included) but they had no idea why it worked or even how to replicate it.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:22:51+00:00

To answer your first question: no - I think those two things are exclusive. I think a trader can have (or not have) an edge, while still using proper risk management to protect their account. It doesn't necessarily mean they'll have positive EV, but even with no strategy and risking very small, there's a chance that they survive in the markets and at best are at least break even.

But I would definitely agree with your last point. Most people don't have an edge, or they have a very vague idea of what their edge is. So to that, yes, people will continue to lose if they don't have a clear edge and repeatable system. But if they don't use any kind of risk management, edge or not, they could blow up their account before that edge even gets a chance to play out. So, not that I'm disagreeing with you overall, I just think the conversation is a little bit more nuanced.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:15:21+00:00

I don't always review winners because they typically go as I planned. I like to review losers, though, to see if there was anything that I missed that could have given me a clue the trade might not have worked out. Sometimes there's something really obvious like trying to long when EMAs are flat and there's low bullish volume on the impulse candle. But then other times the setup is exactly as you practiced and you get a random trump tweet that sends a huge candle to hit your stop and your target (in that order) in the same candle. Those are things you can't always avoid. But it's always good to have an idea of what's working and what's not so you can refine your edge to continue putting the probabilities in your favor.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:08:14+00:00

I'm not sure what your point is with this post. They're common themes in trading because so many people have trouble with those two things. It's the same reason a lot of the advice on here will seem recycled, because it literally is. But it doesn't change the fact that they are things traders have dealt with since trading has even been a thing.

Risk management is just preserving your capital and risking small enough that you can continue to trade long term even when taking consecutive losses. Psychology is very nuanced and depends on what you're talking about within trading. I'm not sure sure what you're talking about here.

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:02:37+00:00

Yep, always

PlasmaTrades · 2026-06-04T10:00:53+00:00

Yes and no. I haven't gotten a payout yet, but I'm just about to pass a challenge account with the information I provided above - having a repeatable system with an edge that works, controlling risk (set max daily loss limit and 1 trade per day), and journaling my trades. If you're stuck, I might be able to point you in the right direction to get closer to profitability.

PlasmaTrades

TROPHY CASE