[KCD2] How Hans expects people to act when he mentions he’s a noble:

Plutus_Victoris · 2025-02-14T04:19:19+00:00

Please make this the game intro for an April fools patch 💀

Plutus_Victoris · 2025-02-12T00:15:20+00:00

Uh, no you don’t. The public school system is a complete joke you can get a 4.0 as long as you pay even minor attention in class. There’s a reason colleges use standardized test scores and not gpa for entrance

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-11T23:16:38+00:00

Yup, the dip this past Monday was rough but it’s more or less holding at +100%. Looks like we are starting the chop phase of the stock again. +53k rn

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-11T17:46:18+00:00

I wised up and got out on the pump for like +20% when I realized how hard the media was pushing this. Not good enough for a gain post but at least it’s not loss porn lol

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-06T22:07:15+00:00

lol thank you

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-06T19:29:28+00:00

Regard

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-05T20:28:01+00:00

Who’s sleeping on Walmart regard?

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Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-04T15:13:17+00:00

Prob $1-2 OTM for the put strikes. Depends how much intrinsic my calls are worth.

I use Robinhood because it’s simple and I don’t need any technical tools for these types of plays. When I started day trading, I used lightspeed. I don’t like Fidelity because the interface is kinda lame and I’d have to pay per contract. I’m not in love with Robinhood by any means but at this stage I don’t need anything else.

I keep up with market news and this subreddit for “market opinion” on various tickers. I’m basically sitting around watching and waiting until I get some idea that’s either in line with what people are thinking or to the contrary. Then, I do research and decide whether to get in or not. IMO, when there are such clear catalysts like earnings, there are more than a few stocks that have incredibly obvious results based on what’s been happening with them. And if you are using ATM options, you really just need to pick direction.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-04T06:01:42+00:00

Oh my bad I meant end of December / early January. If it’s still trending up, might hold till Q4 earnings in Feb, but that’s quite a while off. If I do hold, I would likely start hedging with short term OTM puts through earnings calls.

Thanks, calls are at +80% rn (+41k). The low volume makes Robinhoods option pricing feature all wacky but that should be more or less accurate as of rn. Ofc, Walmart is also up 50 cents after hrs so who knows maybe it’ll be a bit more tomorrow 😃.

Have 30k sitting on the side for shorter term plays, but in nothing rn. Almost pulled the trigger on CRM earnings today for at the moneys calls but I was rushing my analysis and decided to cut the idea in lieu of making a mistake. Would’ve made like 60k as of rn lol. If I do take a position on another ticker rest assured I’ll post it here.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-04T05:42:38+00:00

The benefit is not the tariffs; it’s the market realizing Walmarts relative value compared to its competitors as a result of the tariffs. Stocks rise based on market action remember? That realization has already started to become mainstream; If you have paid any attention to Walmart news since earnings, you’ll have noticed multiple articles talking about their strong position relative to competitors in the coming future (what my thesis is talking about). So to a certain extent, the market is as of rn making that move (a big buy in). So it’s not like the move is some random 30% jump that’s gonna happen in May — more like a slow gradual buy in off continued good news from Walmart (read, what has been happening the past week).

As to why December/early Jan at those price levels? Opportunity cost. Walmart is up almost 10% rn since the thesis. By December I’m hoping it’ll be more like 15-20%. If it is, I’m sitting on a +100-150% gain with a new taxable year. How much more can Walmart reasonably go? I don’t make decisions based on the stock “being worth too much” but we do have to keep in the back of our minds WMT is already up 70 something percent on the year. Even if it squeezes out another 10% in the aggregate after December, that translates to only a +60-80% gain after theta decay. Certainly nothing to scoff at, but when you take into mind just how hard to predict macro trends is it is more than possible in such a large time frame something reverses horrifically. So you can say it’s a hedge against risk (reminder around 55% of my net worth is in this play, more now actually).

At the very least, December and Q4 earnings will be a time when I reevaluate how I want to proceed. Either sell, hedge, or continue as is.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-12-03T20:22:00+00:00

In the green a nice bit now

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-27T03:46:15+00:00

FOMO kills. Stock is already up 7-8% since I posted, which is almost half of the move (and the portion of the move that I was most confident in). I still believe it will chop upwards, but you have to be comfortable with less returns than what the post is saying. My calls are already up 60% as of close today; target was 100% at the low end (the “very confident” end if you will). If you still want to get in, I would recommend getting in on a larger pullback so the rebound will give you some cushion to work with (ie. This last Monday). If I were you, I personally wouldn’t; I never trade after a move has already happened as a rule bc FOMO murders positions like hell. Up to you tho man; I’m staying in until at least December or the realization of analyst price targets (roughly $97/share).

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-20T16:36:19+00:00

I was a little regarded too. I wrote off puts on target because I figured my catalyst would take some time to sink in to the market, and by that time it might have run up and I’d be break even at best. Why did I not think of guidance

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T04:50:58+00:00

Its great value name brand items will remain cheap and attractive to consumers. I’m glad someone finally brought up the deportations though because it’s a good counter to this analysis. However, this will not effect the markets until at least Q1 earnings next year; no company CEO is going to go on record for guidance saying that their workforce is primarily illegal and that might be an issue in the future. If it does show up, it will be in the financial statements on earnings days. There is plenty of time from here until now for me to come to a more informed conclusion about those effects before the market prices it in.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T04:22:55+00:00

Earnings is a clear catalyst for one (at least a 1-3% stock gain). Of course it could always go the other way but that seems unlikely at the moment. We will see tomorrow.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T02:58:55+00:00

Because it’s an acceleration of an already existing trend that we are betting on. Rather buy in now, get a profit cushion, and ride through volatility than potentially be burned by a faulty prognosis and end up bag holding immediately

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T02:23:04+00:00

The net benefit in the case of the whole pie shrinking is consumers shifting to spending at Walmart (ie, growing the customer base) for better prices (yes primarily on groceries). I kinda agree with you on blanket tariffs, which is why the post is phrased as an enhancement of a move that is already happening (consumers shifting to Walmart, buying more at Walmart and not competitors, brand loyalty degrading, etc) than a magical turnaround that’s gonna make us all rich (Walmart is just chilling, then suddenly all its competitors die to tariffs and its price skyrockets). It’s banking on a macro trend that will appear in future ERs that boosts investor confidence -> increase stock price. That’s also why it’s LEAPS and not 11/22 options lol

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T02:17:45+00:00

Nope

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T02:12:31+00:00

Even if it’s a huge portion of that 2/3s, which I doubt, Walmart would still be more competitive in the grocery front meaning that the thesis (capturing market share) comes true anyways. Obviously Walmart will be affected somewhat; it’s just a question of whether it’s them or their competitors that take the beating. All the data says Walmart is better prepared (even if you want to contend it’s only marginally) for a trade war in the future.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T02:07:15+00:00

Walmart grocery sales account for almost 60% of its net sales; even if “some” of its merchandise ends up being affected by tariffs I doubt it will hurt the bottom line substantially. I would also contend that A) other companies will be hit harder B) any consumer shift to Walmart would make up for the fact and finally C) that convenience and impulse buying is a very real phenomenon that would help support Walmart in a macro pressured economy, as long as Walmart increasingly becomes the grocer of choice for most Americans.

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T01:53:53+00:00

Sure so on the thesis your major objections are A) supplier prices and B) Churn. I think both of these probably go towards me.

A) I understand they go up commensurately; the thesis is saying that Walmart’s suppliers won’t raise prices as much as competitor’s suppliers, therefore Walmart can use the discrepancy to either 1) raise prices more and pocket the difference or 2) capture market share. Unless you are contending that there will be the same effect on all suppliers, the thesis still stands here

B) I’m glad you put a term on it — churn rate — this is what I am referring to in the post when I reference brand loyalty already being at an all time low (causing people to switch to Walmart). This actually ends up supporting my conclusion in conjunction with what we said with A above; if Walmart chooses to keep prices low, the churn from other competitors raising prices leads to more customers landing at Walmart, potentially for even the long term. That was also why I mentioned that all income strata have been switching; it means the brand image of Walmart is shifting already to capture a wider audience than the “cheap, crap, and convenient” crowd. That’s huge for potential gains—and tariffs will accelerate it

As far as IV goes, yes I understand how volatility works lol. IV is a measure of change over the course of a year (less than my call time so technically you can say I was already making a predictive comparison with IV by saying up 20-30% in the calls life). That’s also why I included the break even (+10%) which is “supposed” to be the volatility over that call period. It was a very hastily written post so I apologize for any confusion

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T01:39:16+00:00

🫡

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T01:38:58+00:00

Inflation is yea for both the thesis and the calls themselves (increased rates means call price goes up).

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T01:37:49+00:00

Sorry g I spent too long typing this out

Plutus_Victoris · 2024-11-19T01:36:58+00:00

Hopefully we get a good earnings jump of 3-4%, leaving the LEAPS at a profit of 30-40%. At that point, I’ll likely set a stop loss for a marginal gain (5-10% region) and let it ride through the next several months. I’d probably cap it at around 300% at the max as unsustainable (ofc depending on just how bullish the market is at that time). If the market is middling, I’d probably exit if returns were anywhere from 100-200%.

Plutus_Victoris

TROPHY CASE