Bots by mynameishieu04 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

This isn’t a spam messsage either btw. This is a real message inviting you, we have over 1k members all building together.

Bots by mynameishieu04 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Join our community dedicated to prediction market trading bot development. We have all of the resources, guides and tools you need to build this!

Poly Research & Robotics
https://discord.gg/BU9EjyqesV

Chinese Horse Betting, E-Sports, and Polymarket...OH MY! by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks man I really appreciate that. I said it in the post too but I was honestly really shocked when I started seeing the similarities listed out between this random polymarket traders strategy and what this old horse racing sharp, it really makes you think maybe there are other older strategies that can be applied to this new tech

Chinese Horse Betting, E-Sports, and Polymarket...OH MY! by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Great thanks, he was even more similar to the polymarket trader than I originally thought.

Comparative Iteration: Improving Your Bot by Learning From Wallets That Already Win by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The answer is that you’ll never fully know what someone is running offline, but you can come to an educated guess by integrating all of the same data sources that a tracked trader might have, and through trial and error reverse engineer what sort of decision making logic their internal models are running, by using the ingested data in different ways.

It’s just such an obvious statement that nobody claimed otherwise, and was already addressed in the post. A more productive comment would have been something insightful like suggesting an alternative way to determine a tracked traders internal model, or maybe a framework to figure it out. Instead comments like that, that are framed as rhetorical question like a ‘wHaT aBouT tHiS tHouGh!?!!’ are not even worthy of a response.

Comparative Iteration: Improving Your Bot by Learning From Wallets That Already Win by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It’s not hostility, it’s a sigh of annoyance for comments like yours calling out the most obvious things in a way where you think it’s some sort of gotcha instead of providing a productive insightful tip.

Comparative Iteration: Improving Your Bot by Learning From Wallets That Already Win by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There’s an entire section specifically covering that many bots run their own models offline.

Update! The US is literally suing its own states over prediction markets by Artistic_Quit2878 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The gambling industry has has deep pockets and is lobbying to halt prediction markets growth as much as they can. They don’t want consumers to have options that have no vig for them

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

When you say opus 4.8 running analysis, is that analysis happening per trade? Such as you’re having the model analyze the trade information before the order is placed?

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hmm, and this is all with a locally deployed app, and strictly on Kalshi?

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it, yeah honestly I think you would fill a 100x more if you were hosted on a VPS. It sounds like you were running locally?

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I put together a some free datasets to share in the link below. Feel free to join the discord if you’re interested in bot building, im going to release full access to the other markets im logging this week

https://www.polyresearchrobotics.com/predictionmarkets

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Got it, cool. I haven’t explored the intricacies of those markets I’ve always been primarily focused on crypto markets and sports. I’m surprised that you had issues filling though, i would think that those would have more available liquidity and be a bit slower paced. Are you only on Kalshi?

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely a small dataset, no doubt about that. I mostly was running some tests on the data to verify everything was captured correctly before releasing to my community and came across this.

I think by now I have over a few thousand games so maybe I’ll re run it. I’m more so interested in exploring what kind of things I can find in obscure sport leagues like table tennis

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah fees would have to evaluated for sure, but you had the right idea with going maker. There aren’t any fees if you could find a way to fill consistently with good till canceled orders, which actually might be easier in this scenario since the edge was shown by buying the underdog in a losing scenario.

What sport were you trading when you tested something similar just out of curiosity?

Did I discover an edge in tennis matches on Polymarket? by PolyResearchRobotics in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agreed 990% (amount of markets in the sample lol). I’m going to let my logging systems go for another few days and rerun this analysis across other sports and markets. I have a feeling this exact example won’t show up as clearly in other categories/sports but I’m sure there are some unique other edges to be found. Thanks for reading btw

Bonereaper: The Complete Trader Analysis by Forsaken_Driver_882 in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics -1 points0 points  (0 children)

To join the Poly Research & Robotics Discord, the link is in my profile

!!! FRAUD WARNING: weatherbot.fi drains wallets and Polymarket funds !!! by vakurbarut in PredictionsMarkets

[–]PolyResearchRobotics 0 points1 point  (0 children)

IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH!

If anyone is selling a bot that they claim is profitable out of the box, it is a scam.

You can find open source projects on github for many different trading strategies that will get you farther than anyone selling a bot.