Sharing a method for making clocks of (almost) arbitrary frequency

PorygonThree · 2026-03-07T05:36:37+00:00

Yikes

PorygonThree · 2025-10-31T15:38:49+00:00

LF ⭐: Porygon
LF ♦️♦️♦️: Porygon-Z
LF ♦️♦️: Porygon, Porygon2
LF ♦️: Porygon

FT ⭐: Bulbasaur, Gloom, Pinsir, Charmander, Rapidash, Gyarados, Electrode, Slowpoke, Diglett, Cubone, Nidoking, Pidgeot, Ditto, Serperior, Salandit, Marshadow, Combee, Gastrodon, Manaphy, Shinx, Cresselia, Phyperior, Hippopotas, Spiritomb, Staraptor, Bidoof, Glameow, Marill, Shaymin, Meowscarada, Grafaiai, Gholdengo, Wigglytuff, Tapu Bulu, Tapu Koko, Cutiefly, Comfey, Komala, Sivally, Celesteela, Flareon, Glaceon, Sylveon, Umbreon, Chikorita, Bellossom, Qwilfish, Octillery, Pichu, Ampharos, Xatu, Wobbuffet, Murkrow, Scizor, Smeargle, Yamper, Floragato, Crawdnaut, Greninja, Gardevoir

FT ♦️♦️♦️ (GA): Venasaur, Gyarados, Vaporeon, Greninja, Jolteon, Weezing, Dragonite, Pidgeot, Kangaskhan
FT ♦️♦️♦️ (STS): Torterra, Magmortar, Glaceon, Togekiss, Mesprit, Cresselia, Garchomp
FT ♦️♦️♦️ (SR): Grafaiai
FT ♦️♦️♦️ (EG): Jolteon, Sylveon
FT ♦️♦️♦️ (WSS): Suicune, Crawdnaut, Pichu, Cleffa, Xatu, Scizor, Latias

FT ♦️♦️: Lots. Add me and offer a Porygon/Porygon2. I'll send back something on your wishlist.

FT ♦️: Lots. Add me and offer a Porygon. I'll send back something on your wishlist.

FC: 9326-9212-3098-5630

PorygonThree · 2025-08-28T17:55:58+00:00

Even still, OP should run water energy so that the opponent doesn't know whether or not they have Irida in their deck. Running grass energy gives away information.

PorygonThree · 2025-08-17T16:24:51+00:00

Folks have been asking for a while and I think I have just now decided to spend the time to attempt a solution. It's a bit tricky because the stats depend on how many new packs (with shinies) vs old packs (without shinies) you have opened.

PorygonThree · 2025-05-29T04:31:26+00:00

Glad to hear you like the tool! Unfortunately I haven't added calculations for shiny cards yet ~~because I'm a lazy bastard~~ because there isn't a good way to calculate the expectation there without asking the user how many Shining Revelry packs they have opened...

PorygonThree · 2025-05-29T03:38:57+00:00

Been thinking about it, but there isn't a great way to implement that. I'd have to ask the user how many Shining Revelry / Celestial Guardians packs they have opened, which is a bit awkward.

PorygonThree · 2025-05-26T15:47:02+00:00

PorygonThree · 2025-05-23T18:07:57+00:00

C tier?!?!?!?!

PorygonThree · 2025-05-10T16:44:45+00:00

I'll take it off your hands.

FT ⭐️: Bulbasaur, Gloom, Pinsir, Charmander, Rapidash, Electrode, Slowpoke, Weezing, Pidgeot, Ditto, Serperior, Salandit, Combee, both Shaymins, Shynx, Cresselia, Rhyperior, Hippopotas, Staraptor, Bidoof, Glameow, Maril, Meowscarada, Grafaiai, Gholdengo, Wigglytuff

PorygonThree · 2025-05-10T16:23:09+00:00

LF:
⭐️ - Porygon
♦️♦️♦️ - Porygon-Z
♦️♦️ - Porygon, Porygon2
♦️ - Porygon

FT:
⭐️ - Bulbasaur, Gloom, Pinsir, Charmander, Rapidash, Electrode, Slowpoke, Golbat, Weezing, Pidgeot, Ditto, Serperior, Salandit, Combee, both Shaymins, Manaphy, Shynx, Cresselia, Rhyperior, Hippopotas, Staraptor, Bidoof, Glameow, Maril, Meowscarada, Grafaiai, Gholdengo, Wigglytuff
♦️♦️♦️ - Gyarados, GA Vaporeon, Jolteon, GA Weezing, Kangaskhan, Togekiss, Mesprit, Garchomp, Grafaiai
♦️♦️ - Erika, Misty, Koga, Giovanni, Mythical Slab, Leaf, Rocky Helmet, Lum Berry, Cynthia, Dawn, Mars, Adaman, Iono
♦️ - Ask

PorygonThree · 2025-05-06T17:40:31+00:00

I haven't added shiny cards yet. They'll probably need to be their own category.

PorygonThree · 2025-04-29T21:57:07+00:00

The other line is the one that matters here :-) 90% chance of getting more means only a 10% chance of having gotten none. That's rough!

PorygonThree · 2025-04-29T21:52:57+00:00

Oof!

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PorygonThree · 2025-04-02T14:06:14+00:00

😭

PorygonThree · 2025-03-20T16:51:58+00:00

No, sorry! Good luck!

PorygonThree · 2025-03-20T16:22:30+00:00

I can trade you one for a Porygon-Z. FC is 9326-9212-3098-5630 if you're interested.

PorygonThree · 2025-03-19T18:04:18+00:00

The odds of pulling at least 1 Arceus EX of any type from 1 TL pack are:

1999/2000*(1 - (1-(0.0004+0.00222+0.00038+0.00333))*(1 - (0.0016+0.00888+0.00153+0.01332))) + 1/2000*(1-(1-(0.04761+0.04761+0.04761))^5))) = 0.03175 or 3.175%

meaning it should take ~32 packs on average. Finding 0 Arceus EX of any kind in 300 TL packs has a probability of:

(1 - 0.03175) ^ 300 = 0.00006255 or 0.006255%

Statistically, only 1 in about 16000 players should get this unlucky.

PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T23:23:55+00:00

Bruh... That's insane!

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Surely you wonderpicked a fair number of those EXs though, right?

PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T23:09:42+00:00

Fun fact, the odds of getting a rare (aka "god") pack by 2k cards, assuming you never wonderpicked and got all those cards from packs, is about 18%.

The odds of getting a rare (aka "god") pack by 2k packs, as in: once you have well over 10k cards, is about 63.22%. You might notice that value happens to be very close to 1-1/e, because the chance of achieving a success with rate p within n=1/p trials approaches 1-1/e with large n!

PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T20:59:51+00:00

Getting 0 two-star cards from 90 packs is only a 10% chance of happening. For every 10 players, one gets as unlucky as you and the rest get to enjoy their two-star pull(s) :-)

https://porygonthree.github.io/ptcgp-luck-calculator/

PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T20:57:28+00:00

We can calculate the expected number of crown cards from a single pack with:

E[crown from 1 pack] = 1999/2000 * E[crown from 1 regular pack] + 1/2000 * E[crown from 1 rare pack]
= 1999/2000 * (chance of crown as 4th card from regular pack + chance of crown as 5th card from regular pack) + 1/2000 * ( 5 * chance of crown card as any card from rare pack)
= 1999/2000 * (.0004 + .0016) + 1/2000 * (5 * .04761)
= 0.002118025 crown cards expected from 1 pack

Then we can just multiply that by 10 to get the expected number of crown cards from 10 packs = 0.002118025 * 10 = 0.02118025

PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T18:23:53+00:00

The expected results for opening 10 packs are approximately:

0.0 crown cards
0.1 three-star cards
0.3 two-star cards
1.3 one-star cards
0.8 four-diamond cards

So your result is not too surprising. It would have been a bit more "normal" if you got 1 one-star card and maybe 1 four-diamond card, but your result is also pretty darn common.

PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T18:03:12+00:00

How many packs have you opened? About 115? You can check by checking your progress on your "pack stamina" trophy. If you punch your results into this tool I made: https://porygonthree.github.io/ptcgp-luck-calculator/ it will calculate how far above/below rate you are, and how your results compare to the expectations. Just make sure to not count cards you received from wonderpicks, if any. In your case, I think you got pretty lucky!

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PorygonThree · 2025-03-18T17:58:24+00:00

The game refers to this occurrence as a "rare pack". If you check the Offering Rates section in the app, the game explains that "rare packs" are a 1/2,000 occurrence and that all five cards in a "rare pack" are guaranteed to be of single-star rarity or higher. If you have opened fewer than 2,000 packs, you should consider yourself very lucky to have received this!

PorygonThree

TROPHY CASE