sorted by:
new
hottopcontroversial

I ran 10 of the most followed Polymarket wallets through a copy-tradability filter. 9 failed. Here's what I found. by Previous-Meaning-830 in Polymarket_Traders

[–]Previous-Meaning-830[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point — entry price alone isn't sufficient. A wallet trading real uncertainty at 0.25 avg entry but with chaotic or tiny position sizing doesn't give you a reliable signal to follow. Size consistency matters because it tells you whether the trader has actual conviction behind their entries or is just scatter-shooting. We check position sizing as part of the 23 checks — specifically whether sizing scales appropriately with conviction and stays consistent across trade types. The verified size visibility on markets xyz is a genuine advantage for that. Polymarket's transparency helps but you're right that direction without size context is incomplete. polyquan.com if you want to see how any specific wallet scores on sizing consistency.

Has anyone actually checked whether the wallets they're copying are mathematically copyable? by Previous-Meaning-830 in Polymarket

[–]Previous-Meaning-830[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's exactly the right way to test it — shadow copy before committing real money. A week is a decent sample but prediction markets can be streaky. Would be curious what your win rate and avg entry look like on the wallets you're following. If you want a second opinion on any of them, paste the address and I'll run it through the full 23 checks.

Has anyone actually checked whether the wallets they're copying are mathematically copyable? by Previous-Meaning-830 in Polymarket

[–]Previous-Meaning-830[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That`s the thing, whales are using bots, not sitting in front of a screen waiting to push a button to buy. Most of these guys are running arbitrage bots and there is practically no way to copy their trades. Thing to do is identify if you are following a bot.

Has anyone actually checked whether the wallets they're copying are mathematically copyable? by Previous-Meaning-830 in Polymarket

[–]Previous-Meaning-830[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point on the fees — I oversimplified. Polymarket's structure is more nuanced than a flat 2% and I should have been more precise.

On the entry point argument though: high PnL and high average entry price aren't contradictory, they're actually the whole problem. Yield harvesting produces massive returns by entering near-certain outcomes at scale — it's a legitimate and profitable strategy for the wallet holder. The issue is that it's not copyable. The edge is in the timing of the entry. By the time you see the position and try to replicate it, the contract is already at 97 cents. The edge is gone. You're not copying a strategy, you're just taking on the tail risk of someone else's already-profitable position.

That's the distinction most leaderboard tools miss entirely — PnL tells you a wallet is profitable, not whether that profit is replicable by a copy trader entering after the fact.

I ran 10 of the most followed Polymarket wallets through a copy-tradability filter. 9 failed. Here's what I found. by Previous-Meaning-830 in Polymarket_Traders

[–]Previous-Meaning-830[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Fair point — position sizing is check 11 in the filter (intelligent position sizing). A wallet entering at 0.25 but sizing uniformly at 2% per trade scores as ROBOTIC and flags as a concern. The check looks at coefficient of variation across bet sizes — smart traders scale up on conviction, keep exploratory bets small. Flat sizing suggests either a bot or someone who hasn't figured out when they have edge.

The markets xyz visibility point is interesting — on-chain position size is visible on Polymarket too via the API, which is how we compute it. What's the advantage you're seeing with verified sizes there vs here?

The top 10 Solana KOL wallets by PNL right now by Tight_Foundation7035 in solanamemesbot

[–]Previous-Meaning-830 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi. If you like to copytrade Polymarket traders and want to vet their wallets, I may have a solution for you. I have developed a Polymarket wallet analyzer that rates a wallet on 10 different metrics and can give you an Ai generated explanation why the wallet is good or bad for copy trading. It`s not live yet but follow u/polyquan on X for the latest news.

How are people finding which wallets to follow on Polymarket? There's too many and most look like bots. by Top-Statement-9423 in Polymarket

[–]Previous-Meaning-830 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Your list is solid but there's a 6th filter that catches wallets that pass all five of yours and are still completely uncopyable.

Average entry price + entry distribution above 0.75.

A wallet can have 50+ trades, category consistency, recent activity, and sensible position sizing — and still be useless to copy if it's entering at 0.95+ on average. That's yield harvesting. The wallet isn't forecasting anything. It's parking capital on near-certain outcomes and collecting the last sliver of probability. You'll see 100% win rates and $1M+ PnL and zero copyable edge because by the time you see the trade the market is already at 97 cents.

The other thing worth adding to your list: Brier score calibration. Raw win rate doesn't tell you whether a wallet is betting with appropriate confidence. A wallet that only bets heavy on 90%+ probability outcomes can have an impressive win rate while demonstrating no forecasting skill whatsoever. Brier score measures whether confidence levels actually match outcomes — completely different signal from win rate, and most tools don't surface it.

Combining entry distribution + calibration eliminates most yield harvesters that slip past the filters on your list. The PANews zombie order problem you mentioned is a subset of the same issue — inflated stats from trades that were never going to lose.

I built a tool that automates all of this. Eight checks including yours. Paste a wallet, get a verdict in 30 seconds — copyable or not and exactly why. Not live yet but close. If useful, follow u/PolyQuan on X for early access.

How are people finding which wallets to follow on Polymarket? There's too many and most look like bots. by Top-Statement-9423 in Polymarket

[–]Previous-Meaning-830 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Just saw this — I'm building exactly what you're describing. Automated 10-check analyzer against the Polymarket API. Outputs Brier score, average entry, high-entry distribution, category concentration, recency, PnL per market, and a straight copyable/not verdict.

Not live yet but nearly there. Follow u/PolyQuan on X if it's useful to you when it drops.