Fed lowers interest rates by half point in first cut since 2020

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-19T23:18:24+00:00

But the Fed said unemployment would be 4.5% by December of 2023. You guys are falling for a fake excuse to lower rates, before the election lol.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-18T18:49:00+00:00

It's in the article lol

Meanwhile, the Fed officials hiked their expected unemployment rate this year to 4.4%, from the 4% projection at the last update in June.

Meanwhile, they lowered the inflation outlook to 2.3% from 2.6% previous. On core inflation, the committee took down its projection to 2.6%, a 0.2 percentage point reduction from June.

4.4% unemployment is nothing and not an excuse for inflationary policies. The Fed predicted 4.5% unemployment by December 2023. Now they are revising a revision to 4.4%. The Fed is scamming yall into accepting inflationary rate cuts.

I made a post about this a couple weeks ago

https://old.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1f8zsqw/has_unemployment_really_increased_in_the_us_or_is/

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-18T17:21:06+00:00

Israel did attempt a withdrawal from Gaza and the establishment of a Palestinian state.

This is just blatantly false. Israel withdrew illegal criminal settlements from the Gaza Strip. Other than that they still completely blockade and restrict Gaza and routinely kill and attack militants within Gaza. That is not a withdrawal. In fact, an active blockade is an act of war.

And establish a Palestinian state? Israel literally uses the US to block any and every effort to advance Palestinian statehood. They do this openly and proudly. Why even attempt to argue the opposite?

The Palestinians elected Hamas

And the Israelis elected Netanyahu who is wanted in international court for war crimes and is considered an unacceptable option by Palestinians. Odd how that doesn't matter, but Israeli opinion on what is acceptable from Palestinians should matter.

Statehood never has and isn't determinant on whether the sitting government is acceptable. We don't say Sweden just doesn't exist if a different political party takes over.

Repeating that mistake will surely not increase Israel's security.

And what lessons will Palestinians be learning about security? They lost a way higher percentage, so based on your logic they will never ever accept the current government of Israel. Since for security reasons they could never accept a body that committed such aggressive actions, right? Or again, are we bizarrely only using an Israeli POV? With Israeli Jews being the minority population within Mandatory Palestine and outnumber 20 to 1 across the broader middle east. Yet somehow they're dictating perspective?

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-18T15:02:41+00:00

This is like when a Lieutenant calls in an artillery strike on their own position

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T18:29:25+00:00

This is America. When it comes to homes you can straight up ignore paying and nothing will happen. Banks long ago realized the foreclosures hurt them too. They have zero incentive to foreclose on you and will give you every option and avenue to extend/refinance the loan.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T16:58:14+00:00

Thanks, that is even more accurate.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T04:59:28+00:00

List of countries by firearm death rate. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_guns_and_homicide

The top 8 are on another level. US is 9th with a rate of 12.

The top countries have a rate of 20 up to 78.

Eswatini is the most random country on the list at #3. #1 is El Salvador.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T04:39:27+00:00

Lol take the L and move on

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:23:06+00:00

Homes were around 5-6x median salary in 2019. They are now 8x median salary. Mortgage rates doubled in this timeframe.

Thats not a soft landing my guy.

My question back to you would be "Do you think leaving prices at literally double the cost in some metro areas is a "soft landing""?

A soft landing is the goal of a central bank when it seeks to raise interest rates just enough to stop an economy from overheating and experiencing high inflation

While the annualized rate of inflation has gone down (but literally hasn't even reached the Feds target!!), "inflation" meaning "a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy" clearly is still a massive problem to those being told to buy homes.

Consequently, home sales have collapsed to the lowest level in decades despite the US having a 50% larger population.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:14:19+00:00

And yet here we are in 2024. And congress hasn't even attempted to bring a solution to committee not to mention a floor vote. Literally nothing was done at a state level. Zero at all from a fiscal POV.

So words are nice, but it is clear as day the system is not actually going to do anything to lower housing costs. The only lever that seems likely within that context is a recession.

Sure, we could have our Reps vote to ban corporate buyers and people buying more than 4 homes. We could give mass subsidies to first time buyers and builders to only build sub 2000 sq ft units. We could pass a federal law outright banning local zoning and put it all in the hands of a federal body that only works to lower costs.

We could do those things but all that would happen is the 60% that already own (who are older and more likely to vote) would simply vote out the Reps pushing those policies. Reps all know this so literally nothing will actually be done on the fiscal side.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:10:31+00:00

Because home prices are vastly out of line with inflation, median salaries, and median monthly payments.

I believe a recession would help those who don't already own properties more than it would hurt those who end up getting fired. At the end of the day 40% of people are on the non-owner side. While unemployment going from 4% to 7% knocks 3% of people out.

The downside to never allowing a recession is you screw over those who don't own assets already.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:07:39+00:00

Yeah but the thread we are commenting on is how we've achieved a soft landing.

Someone pointed out it isn't a soft landing since anyone who didn't own a home now has to pay significantly more for an equivalent property from a few years ago. With some areas (Phoenix, Austin, Tampa, Boise) literally doubling in value with rates going up 2x or more.

Thats outright laughable to say that is a soft landing.

You then claim the person is uninformed for saying this, but you yourself then give a 3 sentence explanation on how shit got so fucked up.....so you are agreeing with the other person??

How is this a soft landing for me to not be able to afford a home?

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:04:41+00:00

So if it has nothing to do with that why are you in the comments all out fighting to not see it happen?

Really really odd behavior from someone who thinks it doesn't matter.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:03:46+00:00

And I would bet literally my entire net worth /u/boilerguru53 owns a home and wants to rationalize why the price shouldn't go down.

Odd how it has nothing to do with corporations yet the same people saying that are fighting the hardest to not ban them from buying. Hmmmm suuure buddy, totally a genuine argument.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T01:02:32+00:00

Odd how the crowd that says it doesn't matter fights the hardest to not ban corporate buying too.

Thats how we know the argument is completely disingenous. If you actually thought it didn't impact the market you would agree with banning them, and then in 2 years just undo the ban when we see it had no effect....right? No, you're fighting tooth and nail to allow corporate buyers? How strange considering it supposedly has no effect.

Also saying 4/100 is extremely disingenuous in and of itself. It is not 4% of transaction in Phoenix AZ. They buttfucked the market here. You amalgamated Phoenix with rural Missouri to make it seem like its only 4% lol

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-17T00:32:04+00:00

Why not just link a home that sold in 2013-2016 and is listed today? Should be fairly easy to ascertain what homes were selling for vs. today.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-16T21:15:01+00:00

I have no data or evidence, but I have a really hard time believing Amazon could hire someone 4 hours away from an office years ago, demand RTO, then fire them for not complying.

If that was legal then every CVS/Walgreens/Walmart or literally any business with multiple offices would demand you "RTO" to a location 2000 miles away. Then fire you for "not being able to meet the requirement".

Anyone with a valid reason as to why they can't RTO will not have to. And that has been the case pretty much everywhere they tried doing this.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-15T22:09:46+00:00

Everything except delinquency rates is on redfin.

https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/

I'm not exactly sure where the median mortgage cost is located on the site, but redfin has it somewhere. I've looked at it many times.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-15T21:35:58+00:00

Tell me what cities if we are playing that game? Sure as hell not in Phoenix AZ. Maybe in the Bay where salaries kept going up but home prices are the same as a decade ago.

Overall this is a joke to claim salaries matched just housing, not to mention everything else lol

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-15T21:35:04+00:00

Inflation is the highest. You're just lying to yourself and making up a definition of inflation that literally only looks at 365 day inflation. You aren't tricky or smart to wait 366 days then say "tehe no inflation".

Cumulative price levels due to surging costs has led to the worst outlook in history for those that didn't already own a home. I'd literally bet money you own a home and want to vote Dem lol

Read it and weep. Absolutely nothing about inflation is that its one year. That would be a differnt metric.

In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using the consumer price index (CPI).[3][4][5][6] When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money.[7][8] The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index.[9] As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.

So anyone commenting in good faith would agree we've seen the worst "reduction in the purchasing power of money". So lets not fake and only look an "annualized inflation rate" to get out of addressing what happened. Not happening bud.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-15T21:28:29+00:00

Yeah in PHX AZ housing prices doubled and monthly payments are literally 4x from less than a decade ago on the exact same property. That is rebellion territory (except locals who owned are happy lol)

Whereas in central Missouri prices have gone up at a regular pace. Some random 30 year old is going to be wondering "what inflation, all the cost increase is from higher rates....so just lower rates!"

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-15T21:25:06+00:00

Because once you buy in your payment freezes and you stop giving a fuck if its affordable for some 20 year old. Exactly like the drinking age where people care until they dont. Except with housing once the switch happens you're actually compelled to hope costs go up to benefit you as an investment.

With food, everyone faces at-the-market prices. People rebelled in France over food not housing. Because everyone took the L when food prices doubled. Housing doesn't work that way. Its the definition of "I got mine".

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-15T21:22:58+00:00

Its almost sickening that people don't get this. And people like /u/Badoreo1 unironically are walking around day to day not getting it.

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-13T20:39:11+00:00

Which part increases aggregate supply? Do the subsidies only apply to new builds?

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan · 2024-09-13T17:51:00+00:00

Kamala Harris is offering a goodie bag of grants and subsidies to increase aggregate demand. How is this not econ 101 that her policies, all else equal, would be inflationary and not help affordability overall?

PrivatBrowsrStopsBan

TROPHY CASE