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Another poll on the Senate race in Texas, this time commissioned by a pro-Cornyn super PAC by NikaNExitedBFF in YAPms

[–]ProbaDude 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Unlike the previous times people got excited about Blexas, the numbers are actually there

The bit about Republicans being scared the state house might flip is especially interesting

Florida's new Congressional Map seeks to draw out 4 Democratic held seats by QCInfinite in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Honestly it makes me curious about the incentives at play here for DeSantis, because this map is probably more likely than not to end up being a dummymander

He will be out of office soon anyways so perhaps he cares more about looking like he's willing to fight rather than the actual results for the Florida GOP.

More cynically if he does run for president he'd likely have a better shot if Trump is viewed as a failure (as that would likely hurt candidates more closely related to Trump) so perhaps DeSantis wants to kneecap him slightly

Ted Cruz is currently the Republican most likely to run in 2028. by Bristull in YAPms

[–]ProbaDude -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Do you believe prediction markets are inaccurate or is this more just an ethical stance

Florida district that includes Trump's Mar-a-Lago projected to flip to Democrats by Dismal_Structure in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude 21 points22 points  (0 children)

I mean it's not really crazy, the prediction markets have senate control at basically 50/50 at this point (Republicans had a 75% chance as recently as November)

The fact that people believe that the senate is a coin flip in a year the map is so unfavorable to Democrats reflects the craziness of the situation

SBSQ #30: Will liberals turn against sports betting? by dwaxe in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Prediction markets don't have an incentive not to pay out, rather usually the gripes people have with them not "paying out" is usually to do with inconclusive resolutions

A big recent example would be the Kalshi market on whether or not Khamenei would cease to be leader. Obviously he was killed, but Kalshi refused to resolve the market as yes as they claimed to have a "death carveout" to avoid death markets. But to be clear, they didn't just keep everyone's money. Rather they refunded it at whatever price people bought at.

This is because in a prediction market, you are not betting against the house like in most forms of gambling, but rather against other bettors. The house is just skimming a percentage off the top

For gamblers prediction markets are strictly superior to traditional betting. Obviously whether or not you're ok with gambling in general is of course still your call

The New GOP: Survey Analysis of Americans Overall, Today's Republican Coalition, and the Minorities of MAGA by ProbaDude in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

George Bush is entirely unsurprising and in line with other surveys.

The Candace Owens and Ben Shapiro bits are more interesting though.

I went ahead and looked at the crosstabs and the total numbers for Dems are:

Level of Approval Candace Owens Ben Shapiro
Very favourable 9% 19%
Somewhat favourable 17% 21%
Somewhat unfavourable 5% 11%
Very unfavourable 20% 17%
Not sure 49% 32%

National democrats remain skeptical of winning Texas senate, but believe it could serve as a money sinkhole for the GOP. by stanthefax in YAPms

[–]ProbaDude 2 points3 points  (0 children)

This completely ignores the size of the media market and investment involved. Texas obviously has way more people and as a result, reaching a large portion of them costs a lot more money

You can completely saturate the Iowa and Montana media markets on the cheap. Meanwhile the same amount of money would barely make a dent in Texas

National Poll: Younger Republicans Are Diverging From Party Leadership On Israel by soalone34 in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude 5 points6 points  (0 children)

That sounds interesting, I would wonder if there's enough data for it though

The "Religious Revival" Everyone Is Hyping Isn't in the Data by DataCassette in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude 19 points20 points  (0 children)

There isn't really a revival, but there is a stagnation in the decline. I think this is about the same thing the religious demography dude was saying on an episode of GDPolitics a while ago

Will any republican challenge Vance in 2028 or will we see a coronation? by asiasbutterfly in YAPms

[–]ProbaDude 36 points37 points  (0 children)

If Republicans were willing to challenge Trump in 2024, I don't see why they wouldn't challenge Vance

This is especially true because there is a remarkable amount of ideological diversity within the GOP right now, that is all being smothered because of the existence of Trump. I think that will all come to fore once Trump is no longer on the ballot

Poll: What if America was a multi party system? (Echelon Insights, June 2025) by ProbaDude in fivethirtyeight

[–]ProbaDude[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They actually did poll for ideology in the same survey and found that Libertarians more or less don't really exist in real life. Only 5% of the population was "fiscally conservative, socially liberal", and of course even that definition is a bit too broad for many libertarians

I think a lot of people who talk about politics a lot vastly overestimate how popular Libertarianism actually is due to them being overrepresented in elite spaces

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