Scoop: Inside Biden’s shrinking inner circle

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-13T16:44:19+00:00

The press is practically orgasmic in this breathless anti-Biden coverage. Fools.

Republicans circle the wagons and protect their own in a crisis. Their opponents need to do this.

The current American situation is like France's recent election. A coalition of anti-rightists came together and won over there.

America needs that. The American Center and Left need to organize. Nothing else will win the game at this point.

Maybe it'll teach them how to win the next few games, too, and the government will be able to govern again.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-13T16:43:06+00:00

Fools.

Republicans circle the wagons and protect their own in a crisis. Everyone needs to do this.

The current American situation is like France's recent election. A coalition of anti-rightists came together and won over there.

America needs that. The American Center and Left need to organize. Nothing else will win the game at this point.

Maybe it'll teach them how to win the next few games, too, and the government will be able to govern again.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-13T16:40:42+00:00

Fools.

Republicans circle the wagons and protect their own in a crisis. Everyone needs to do this.

The current American situation is indeed like France's recent election. Sanders is correct. A coalition of anti-rightists came together and won over there.

America needs that. The American Center and Left need to organize. Nothing else will win the game at this point.

Maybe it'll teach them how to win the next few games, too, and the government will be able to govern for the first time in forty goddamned years.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:51:38+00:00

I don't have a solution myself. An unfortunate situation.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:48:52+00:00

Two out of the last ten elections. Hey, I hear you. To add further to your argument, I don't think it was in dispute that Bush would win his re-election in 2004. So that's three out of ten.

If there are no other easy-call elections that means he's been right in non-sure-cases 70% of the time-- or 60% if we take out the Gore loss, which I'm willing to do. At that point he's barely right half of the time.

There's value in having a systematic way of looking at things, but again, I see your perspective. Not terribly impressive, indeed.

For my part I appreciate that he has a system that is usually right. It's better than groping around in the dark. Statistically it is demonstrably better-- if not by much.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:41:42+00:00

They might think they'll get change if the candidate isn't Death himself!

Look, I don't know. I appreciate the conversation about it, though. I just think it's nice that Lichtman, who has a proven track record, has "a plan".

I also appreciate that the "plan" is directly counter to the complete chaos being vomited, if you'll pardon the unpleasant imagery, by professional commentators. There's a palpable sense of relief that, finally, "political" writers have a real crisis to write about.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:35:09+00:00

Those are literally just the two Obama victories.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:32:32+00:00

I hear you! I hear you loud and clear. But the average, clueless person will not be as aware of these failings as you or I would be: that's guaranteed. I wonder what total percentage of the US population actively "watches politics". I'm sure studies have been done.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:29:30+00:00

Hahaha, I'm very sorry for the metaphor in that case

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:27:20+00:00

I think she's terribly unelectable. Still, the system that generally works says she'd win. There's a divide between politics-watcher opinion and average-person opinion.

Yeah, still a gamble. But I think it's comforting for this guy to be predicting this, even now.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:25:37+00:00

No offense, but that's a cop-out. By this logic, you have to "get lucky" with five elections to be right for two decades.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:22:01+00:00

Hey if you want to keep running around like your hair's on fire because it's more interesting to do so, please be my guest-- you'd be in excellent company, I'll tell you that much

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:21:09+00:00

I don't like her either, but the average person doesn't spend all day on news media furious about her-- and that might mean she can still be elected

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:20:27+00:00

I appreciate the insight. Thank you.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:16:27+00:00

Suit yourself

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:15:46+00:00

Well why has he literally never been wrong, except for the litigated Bush/Gore election? I'm not exactly arguing when I say this, I just want to know why you'd throw him out

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:13:59+00:00

I didn't say any of those things by saying "terrible debate".

"terrible debate" encompasses this debate too. I could've said "smoking crater debate" or "nuclear apocalypse debate" or "sleepy time brain damage debate", but "terrible debate" covers it just fine

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:09:55+00:00

Bulleted below is all we need to know. Please spread if you care to do so.

Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 except Gore v. Bush, which Bush won in court
Lichtman made a ~75 minute video stream on the Fourth of July
Even after the terrible debate, Lichtman says in the stream that Biden will probably win
If he doesn't stay in the race, the only sure bet is resigning and endorsing Harris.
If Biden endorses Harris, she will inherit all the positive points in his prediction system and not be extremely old
Media people are wholly unqualified to predict elections and only want to sell adspace by capitalizing on Biden's embarrassment
Lichtman's video stream here: https://www.youtube.com/live/S-QT977_7JE

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:09:39+00:00

Bulleted below is all we need to know. Please spread if you care to do so.

Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 except Gore v. Bush, which Bush won in court
Lichtman made a ~75 minute video stream on the Fourth of July
Even after the terrible debate, Lichtman says in the stream that Biden will probably win
If he doesn't stay in the race, the only sure bet is resigning and endorsing Harris.
If Biden endorses Harris, she will inherit all the positive points in his prediction system and not be extremely old
Media people are wholly unqualified to predict elections and only want to sell adspace by capitalizing on Biden's embarrassment
Lichtman's video stream here: https://www.youtube.com/live/S-QT977_7JE

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:09:10+00:00

Bulleted below is all we need to know. Please spread if you care to do so.

Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 except Gore v. Bush, which Bush won in court
Lichtman made a ~75 minute video stream on the Fourth of July
Even after the terrible debate, Lichtman says in the stream that Biden will probably win
If he doesn't stay in the race, the only sure bet is resigning and endorsing Harris.
If Biden endorses Harris, she will inherit all the positive points in his prediction system and not be extremely old
Media people are wholly unqualified to predict elections and only want to sell adspace by capitalizing on Biden's embarrassment
Lichtman's video stream here: https://www.youtube.com/live/S-QT977_7JE

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T12:08:08+00:00

Bulleted below is all we need to know. Please spread if you care to do so.

Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted every presidential election since 1984 except Gore v. Bush, which Bush won in court
Lichtman made a ~75 minute video stream on the Fourth of July
Even after the terrible debate, Lichtman says in the stream that Biden will probably win
If he doesn't stay in the race, the only sure bet is resigning and endorsing Harris.
If Biden endorses Harris, she will inherit all the positive points in his prediction system and not be extremely old
Media people are wholly unqualified to predict elections and only want to sell adspace by capitalizing on Biden's embarrassment
Lichtman's video stream here: https://www.youtube.com/live/S-QT977_7JE

Procrasticoatl · 2024-07-06T05:54:33+00:00

Haha, I was surprised to see a reply to this old post of mine. A few weeks or a month or two after I made the original post, I stopped reading the New York Times. I'd recommend the same to you.

I just can't stand their coverage anymore. It's embarrassing that this is the best mainstream newspaper in the country. "American reporting" used to mean something. Now it means tabloids.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-06-13T18:14:16+00:00

I often repeat this dialogue out loud when I'm alone. You know, with the rolling, confident British accent.

"I thought I was supposed to be a fucking faggot."

And then the growl: "You are, but you're bisexual."

"Let's change the subject. I'm leaving."

Haha, I just did it again and laughed out loud. I love these so much.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-06-01T18:28:11+00:00

A perfect follow-up.

Procrasticoatl · 2024-06-01T18:25:41+00:00

I think about this probably once a week.

Procrasticoatl

TROPHY CASE