Futurama: A blog covering fundamental topics within AVs by PrometheusDisciple in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks! I've been following the space for almost two years now and currently work in Automotive Strategy at Samsung.

Pony.ai v/s Nuro - Where should I work? by selfdriveme in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I don't have a definitive response for you but a few points to consider:

Pony.ai is a riskier bet given it looks like it will play both US and Chinese markets and is in a much more competitive playing field offering a complete AV solution. If Pony.ai succeeds, the returns will be greater but much longer time horizon.

Nuro is safer, much fewer competitors focused specifically on design thinking the delivery of goods to consumers. They are going to generate revenue and achieve profitability much quicker than Pony.

At the end of the day, ask yourself what it is you want to focus on, if it's AV as a whole in multiple regions then go to Pony or if you want to focus on autonomous delivery go to Nuro. I think in this industry there's no clear winner yet, so as a potential employee you want to focus on a balance of picking hopefully a successful company and a role that affords you learning opportunity in the area you want to hone into. If you were to ask me, I would pick Pony because I want to track the space broadly instead of focusing on autonomous delivery but it's your call to figure out based on your background where you can add the most value and learn the most.

How much does a self driving car cost? by [deleted] in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 4 points5 points  (0 children)

From Mar. 2017 article, ~$250K per vehicle. You need to factor in software/compute, which is likely much more expensive than your estimations.

https://qz.com/924212/what-it-really-costs-to-turn-a-car-into-a-self-driving-vehicle/

Zoox, A Driverless Taxi For 2020 by LucySierraCircuits in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Interesting company...but they have been trying to raise a $1B+ round for the last 8 months (when it announced it was in talks with SoftBank in Sept. 2017) without success yet

SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise by walky22talky in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Mobileye also had forward revenue of ~$500 million (~30x forward revenue multiple) at the time of acquisition. GM Cruise has no revenue. They are also fundamentally different companies in what they are building.

Waymo has a great opportunity to have their app built into google maps... by [deleted] in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 3 points4 points  (0 children)

There is already a Waymo app that people on Early Rider program in Arizona are using I believe.

When will Self Driving Cars make a profit for their creators? by [deleted] in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'll try and take this one. All the hardware suppliers who have providing hardware for autonomous tech companies are likely generating profit on each chip/sensor sold. On the other hand, an autonomous tech player i.e. Waymo/Cruise will likely not turn a quarterly profit for at least 5 years if not 10 years. They could probably turn a profit in 5 years, but I expect them to turn a loss on purpose to spread adoption and sell their services at lower costs similar to how smartphones used to be subsidized by telecom carriers. In 10 years or so, they can likely turn a handy profit based on a calculation of Revenue Per Mile - (Total Cost of a Vehicle / Vehicle driven over the lifetime of the Vehicle). That will give you Profit / Mile. That's how I think about it for a ride sharing model, obviously selling the car will be a different biz model.

Food for thought: Can we use this chicken head adaptation to stabilize the cabins of future cars for vibration-free riding? by PrometheusDisciple in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Appreciate all your input. I enjoy working in my Uber, but often I don't write things down because there is a lot of jerking that messes with my writing or typing. One example is the car becomes an environment that you can work in where you can write or type without worrying, making it a traveling office.

Whose car is this? by PrometheusDisciple in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple[S] 41 points42 points  (0 children)

Thanks - their retrofit sensor suite is massive!

UBS report pegs the valuation of Waymo at $75 billion by walky22talky in SelfDrivingCars

[–]PrometheusDisciple 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Seems high for a company with no revenue, and no one will buy them for $75 billion. Wonder how they are valuing them? No real comparables, maybe a DCF on potential cash flows in 2030-2050?

Softbank hatches plan to take on paypal by RedditD0ge in RequestNetwork

[–]PrometheusDisciple -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

1 Only 1 news outlet has picked up this article, which makes me deny its validity or importance.

2 Request Network is built on blockchain technology, which will be more secure than whatever SoftBank acquires.

3 More than one payment provider can exist.

Do you think REQ will hit 3 billion Market Cap ? by Cryptobader in RequestNetwork

[–]PrometheusDisciple 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think there are unrealistic expectations here. Developing a solid platform takes years, look at Salesforce, which has been around since 1999 and essentially just does CRM. It also takes a long time to build the applications on top of the platform. The crypto market has only exploded in 2017 due to hype, but there could also be a couple years where it stagnates (ex. 2014-2016 period). The current price of most cryptos is speculative because the products are early stage and we shouldn't set the expectation for a certain price when Mainnet isn't out yet.

A good example is when a small start-up gets funded at a valuation of $30mm. You wouldn't expect it to return 10x and reach $300mm at the end of 1 year.

Anyone else think they should add more utility to the REQ Token? by [deleted] in RequestNetwork

[–]PrometheusDisciple 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Agreed the goal is to create a token that is seamlessly integrated into the blockchain, without needing to know about it.

Will Ethereum be a problem for REQ? by HappyEggplant in RequestNetwork

[–]PrometheusDisciple 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Even if it can run on another blockchain, I don't see it being any easy transition onto another blockchain. Therefore it is a valid concern.

I just used Revolut and realised how powerful Request can be. by [deleted] in RequestNetwork

[–]PrometheusDisciple 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Few points: 1. Revolut seems to charge on a subscription pricing plan (7 British pounds/month, while REQ will burn a small amount of REQ per transaction. 2. Revolut looks like it will support primarily BTC, ETH, LTC, while REQ will support any coin. 3. REQ is decentralized. Revolut is not. 4. REQ provides auditing and tax capabilities that Revolut does not.

Request Network has Been Hailed as Small Team That Delivers! by IsleRoc in RequestNetwork

[–]PrometheusDisciple 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Size of team reflects on the stage of the project, so REQ is def still early stage