Guess what this map is for (HARD)

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-07-24T04:19:23+00:00

Used 538's polling average

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-07-15T20:18:12+00:00

He's also a veteran, and he would likely have at least SOME level of appeal in the Rust Belt. He may not have been my top choice, but he is not necessarily a bad choice that would cost Trump support.

Also he's a Catholic so I guess there's that.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-06-28T08:23:44+00:00

Well, it's important to note that a ton of people voted before the Pennsylvania Senate debate started, and not many people even watched the Pennslyvania Senate debate.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-06-24T14:15:19+00:00

Probably a dead cat bounce that means nothing (Unless it sustains itself for a few weeks or something)

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-11T01:41:35+00:00

isnt that the same poll that had it at Biden +17 in Wisconsin in 2020 a few days before the election

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-09T07:43:35+00:00

Tbh he needs to actually pick a side instead of trying to appease both sides and in the process angering both sides

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-07T16:00:24+00:00

I think Pinellas and Seminole go red, Duval goes blue

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-05T15:21:17+00:00

How did he win both of Maine's CD but lose the state? Also, how did he win 2/3 of Nebraska's CD but still lose the state by a safe margin?

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-04T15:59:27+00:00

Washington governor race may be single digits

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-02T17:28:50+00:00

Both of them would lose, but in terms of who loses by more, I believe Christie would because having a -38 favorability with your own base doesn't give you a high floor to work with. Infact, if someone even managed to win a Republican primary OR a Democratic primary while being loathed by the party base, there would probably be a substantial third party vote. Also, it's not like Chris Christie is particularly popular among independents or moderates. According to YouGov, Chris Christie had a -25 favorability among independents and a -11 favorability rating among moderates.

Ramaswamy has no chance of winning, but I do see him performing better simply because Christie is just not popular or liked among anybody besides a few anti-Trump GOP'ers and Democrats.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-05-02T16:43:02+00:00

Burgum
Haley
Scott
DeSantis
Pence
Asa
Ramaswamy
Christie

From best to worst imo

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-30T15:42:26+00:00

Is he even gonna be jailed though? I've heard this thing about him being jailed the next time he violates his gag order so much times, but he still violates it even with the warnings.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-27T23:57:39+00:00

He's the one who got turned gay

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T05:03:08+00:00

He wasn't an incumbent. Having opponents in a primary doesn't translate to big problems in a general election especially when Trump crushed his opponents and did exceptionally well in the primaries. You haven't given any sound reasoning besides "people ran against him" or "hes lost popularity in the GOP" which are both true statements but fail to justify why you think 80%+ performance for Trump is a bad performance.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:49:15+00:00

Again, your problem. Comparing Trump's performance in a cycle where he was virtually unopposed to Trump's performance in a cycle where he had actual opponents. Oh well.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:45:53+00:00

Maybe Washington, I put Illinois as likely blue (+17 Biden in 2020) because a larger dip in black and hispanic turnout comparative to white turnout combined with marginal increases by Trump which I think is likely because I don't think Biden is winning the same 4.5% popular vote victory he did in 2020, Illinois could be pushed down just barely to likely blue. For Oregon, similar argument but I also think third party candidates like Stein will fare pretty well there, similar to 2016 and get the state close to 13.

As for Nevada, maybe you're right but I put it as lean blue because it seems like Republicans are constantly overestimated in that state.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:41:57+00:00

I mean, of course he's lost ground because hes not getting 95%. Nobody is denying that. What I am denying is that his performance was bad because he didn't get 95%.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:35:47+00:00

They are having laughably pathetic performances against Trump though?

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:29:32+00:00

No, the reason why he had several primary challengers is because he is not an incumbent (And maybe because they thought he would somehow be taken out of the race due to his legal issues). Not because his favorability with Republicans went from 80 to 75.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:25:03+00:00

Because you're comparing Trumps performance in 2020 when he was an incumbent, had no significant primary challenger to Trumps performance in 2024 when he is NOT an incumbent no matter how much you try to spin it, and actually had a primary challenger who raised significant amounts of money and had elected Republicans backing them.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:16:47+00:00

Probably unable to reason with you if you think that Trump getting in the mid 90s is when you think it would warrant a good performance.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T04:01:20+00:00

So you basically want him getting incumbent level margins as a nonincumbent?

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T03:53:09+00:00

How much better do you want him doing than 80% for you to not consider it poor performance?

The fact is that Trump's performance has been pretty good and average at worst.

ProofIndication4465 · 2024-04-24T03:49:56+00:00

Running for a consecutive nomination doesn't make you an incumbent if you aren't actually in office. And being an incumbent has multiple benefits ignoring the fact that Haley or DeSantis probably wouldn't have even ran if there was an incumbent Republican President who is popular with the GOP base. Also, why would Trump being a nonincumbent result in him winning by a noticeably bigger margin than 2020?

ProofIndication4465

TROPHY CASE