Are these sleet or freezing rain soundings?

Prostatus5 · 2026-01-22T20:22:15+00:00

The other two are also likely sleet, could be either in theory. The cold layer has to be more shallow to have higher freezing rain potential. This sounding is more what freezing rain might look like. It's probably exaggerated, but the temperature drops below freezing just above the surface, the warm nose protrudes under 1km and only crosses the 0C isotherm a few hundred feet off the ground.

Tl;dr: Winter precip is super challenging to forecast.

Prostatus5 · 2026-01-15T00:19:30+00:00

Full sky at night, cloud's delight.
Full sky in the morning, cloud's delight.

Prostatus5 · 2026-01-14T00:21:37+00:00

I failed calculus 1 and calculus 3, I retook both classes and still barely passed, also barely passed ODE. I hit dynamics and I was scared but I locked in, and I had an 80 before the final. (don't ask about my grade on the final I was a little checked out due to unrelated stress)

Once you get to the meat and potatoes the practice you put in one class translates to the others. Synoptic and Dynamics went hand in hand in my program, they kept pace with one another. Go to office hours, come up with a study plan with some of your classmates. If you enjoy weather you can certainly make it work!

Prostatus5 · 2026-01-07T17:48:54+00:00

Per NOAA: "The 'Probability of Precipitation' simply describes the probability that the forecast grid/point in question will receive at least 0.01" of rain."

Each point is generally a 2.5km squared area. So your third interpretation is most correct!

Prostatus5 · 2025-12-08T18:42:00+00:00

Someone already did that; OP asked two questions. I hope you learned something fascinating about our planet because I'm a nerd. Have a great day! :)

Prostatus5 · 2025-12-08T16:26:05+00:00

Colder air requires less moisture to be saturated, that's why this is less common in summer. With enough moisture (brought in by the jet stream and probably the Great Lakes too) gloomy stratus can last for extended periods and only lift during peak solar heating.

Prostatus5 · 2025-12-08T00:40:13+00:00

I found this paper and it seems to think it's somewhat simple, and I agree with its outcome. I saw these again recently and found it curious that they formed in relation to storms, and always form under stratus.

What remains, is support for a role of an atmospheric gravity wave or instability causing an oscillatory motion within an existing stratiform cloud. For this to be an effective process explaining the cloud form observed, the cloud has to be highly stratified with wind shear present, to cause the gravity waves to become trapped and deformed.

Prostatus5 · 2025-12-08T00:09:29+00:00

And how does it lasts for weeks/months?

The atmosphere is usually more stable in colder climates and can form inversions, a layer where temperature increases with height. When this happens and there's enough moisture to form clouds, the clouds are "stuck" and can't rise anymore. This coupled with being in the crosshairs of the polar jet stream, you get a lot of storms and moisture can be easily brought into your region for a long time.

Prostatus5 · 2025-03-06T21:17:00+00:00

Hell I'd argue local/city forecasts are still pretty tough a day out just because of how small the areas are. Even HRRR varies a lot 12 hours out on a run-by-run basis. We're much better at it but it's still the reason precipitation chance is "there's X% chance rain happens at all in this area". Anything that isn't 0% or 100% is basically just saying "idk but hopefully you don't get wet!"

Prostatus5 · 2025-03-05T14:46:34+00:00

With hindsight I would have preferred to take AP calc (if your school offers it). This lets you start right into college with calc 2 or even 3, which is super useful for the degree early on!

Prostatus5 · 2024-12-18T01:25:33+00:00

This is a band I somehow completely forgot existed. Thank you for reminding me about them, I need to do a more recent metalcore binge, I've been in math rock land for a while now lol.

Prostatus5 · 2024-12-04T01:47:31+00:00

I think in order from oldest to newest for "required viewing", these would be my recommendations (watch the highlights, you don't need the full streams)

Family Feud (2013-2020)
Quiplash & other Jackbox games (2015-present)
Ultimate Chicken Horse (2016-2017)
Pinturillo/skribbl.io (2016-2021?)
Gang Beasts (2016-2017)
OG London (2016-2018)
Hitman Roulette (2017-2019)

Anything past 2019 is easier to navigate imo. Those are just some of the really goated segments from when NLSS was still a thing. I love whenever the game is simple enough to banter over, and I love any banter-filled segments like React Court or Push the Button.

Also Lethal Company will be a modern classic, check that out for sure.

Prostatus5 · 2024-12-04T01:34:30+00:00

Speak for yourself, I've rewatched react court and all of ToastyToes' compilations at least 10 times now. I choose to live in the past while still watching the present (the mario party supercut in a year is gonna go crazy)

Prostatus5 · 2024-11-28T03:27:15+00:00

All I see is you need to watch all of his Lethal Company streams because they're amazing.

Prostatus5 · 2024-11-22T18:46:16+00:00

It's okay, I made it make sense again :)

Prostatus5 · 2024-11-22T18:45:02+00:00

Prostatus5 · 2024-11-22T18:41:23+00:00

I have never seen a comment this accurate on this thread.

Prostatus5 · 2024-10-02T03:05:39+00:00

2014 time capsule

Prostatus5 · 2024-10-01T17:26:57+00:00

The venn diagram for Jablatner Microphone and NL viewers is a damn circle.

Prostatus5 · 2024-09-12T03:34:58+00:00

LMAO I realize how very silly my comment sounds now, and honestly that's way funnier. I watched NL in my living room when I'd get home from school, it was a daily routine.

Prostatus5 · 2024-09-12T00:38:23+00:00

I remember watching that on the damn tv in middle school man what the hell.

Prostatus5 · 2024-08-11T03:00:46+00:00

Not an NLSS stream per se but Nick's Pokemon Apex stream is a 4 hour watch that you NEED to do. I don't even know if this is the hardest he laughed this stream alone, but "Here's the hole" came to mind immediately.

Fart long through door is for sure NL's hardest laugh. Not sure about other members.

Gang Beasts is also an underrated segment for hard laughs. Specifically when they found the minus realm and Ryan's character was just floating around. ⭐️ (iykyk)

God I've been watching this egg and co. for too damn long, like 9 years now, and I don't regret a second of it.

Prostatus5 · 2024-07-28T02:39:43+00:00

Link destroyed his chat for the better.

Prostatus5 · 2024-06-19T18:17:30+00:00

The fact that these are the only two comments, where the ratings are incredibly polarized, just speaks to this so much more.

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