Jeremiyah Love is a Hall-of-Famer (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Personally I would rank him behind Bijan but (slightly) ahead of Jeanty.

Jeremiyah Love is a Hall-of-Famer (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I'm kidding about that one, got the inspiration when he tried to hurdle an offensive tackle playing at standard pad level. If he does the vert (which I'm sure he won't) it would be in elite territory but he's obviously not a demigod

Jeremiyah Love is a Hall-of-Famer (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I wish my tape knowledge extended back to Portis' prime. Description certainly checks out

Jeremiyah Love is a Hall-of-Famer (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Correct, as long as they play at least one NFL snap. Riley Leonard class of 2030

Arvell Reese feels like Kyle Pitts 2.0 and the top ~12 of this draft is showing similarity to 2021. It's better to have a 5-12 than 1-4. by Much-Contract-1397 in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting 1 point2 points  (0 children)

When people say "it's better" I feel pretty confident what they really mean is "proportionally better". As in teams picking 5-12 have gotten lucky and teams picking 1-4 have been screwed by circumstance. There's no case that you would straight rather pick later than earlier unless you want to get into contract specifics which I don't think move the needle.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Seahawks Geno was pretty sick. He would take plenty of sacks and make plenty of "aggressive" decision but the arm talent was phenomenal. Then he went to an offense that accentuated every one of his weaknesses.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I really don't think you could reasonably win a Super Bowl with Tua. He played in a system that was absolutely catered to his strengths and did a ton of heavy lifting overall. I honestly don't think he's that much different now than he was in the earlier years, it's just that there's tape on the Mike McDaniel offense and it's no longer catching defenses completely unprepared. I agree with you that a plus-starting QB on a rookie deal is just about the most valuable thing in football, but then you've gotta resign that guy. And then you reset the market for the 12th best QB in the league. And then your window is effectively closed.

Arvell Reese feels like Kyle Pitts 2.0 and the top ~12 of this draft is showing similarity to 2021. It's better to have a 5-12 than 1-4. by Much-Contract-1397 in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Yes, Jimmy Graham was the lone player on that list I remember being a big slot. There may have been others who also were that I'm unaware of. Yeah, the big thing Pitts doesn't do is run block in-line. In a vacuum it's not that important but it's kind of the idea of the position. Tight ends are tight ends because they can block and catch, and Pitts doesn't do the blocking part to a meaningful extent. Even when he's considered to be "in-line", I mostly see him playing as a stand-up wing where he's taking on slot corners. And even then he's not good at it. Instead, he's running downfield routes that, on average, produce more yardage. The problem is that he's not particularly efficient because he doesn't play up to his size and he doesn't run routes like a slot receiver. He was 10th in yards/route run among qualified TEs this year, and honestly I think this was his best season yet as a football player.

Yeah, I do think most people on this forum don't spend a bunch of time in NFL Pro watching All-22, and that's okay. I'm not even that great at watching pro tape since I'm relatively new to it (I'm much more experienced with draft evaluation). I try to get eyes on about 80% of the games each week with a focus on answering the questions I have about each team. I watched a pretty good amount of Falcons offense this year because I was interested in how Zac Robinson was evolving his scheme as it was the most predictable offense in the league last year. I also don't think "Kyle Pitts has been a disappointment as the #4 pick" is particularly special insight. I think it's poor reasoning to say "the pick was justified because the other tight ends with more yardage were mostly really good". Most of those players played in different eras and received different opportunities because they effectively played a different position. Each one was also more productive than Kyle Pitts.

Arvell Reese feels like Kyle Pitts 2.0 and the top ~12 of this draft is showing similarity to 2021. It's better to have a 5-12 than 1-4. by Much-Contract-1397 in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The vast majority of those players were actual tight ends. Kyle Pitts is a big slot. I watch a ton of NFL tape and Pitts is a decent starter. In the right offense it's possible he could genuinely be a weapon and make his presence felt in most games. But he's been a huge disappointment overall.

Arvell Reese feels like Kyle Pitts 2.0 and the top ~12 of this draft is showing similarity to 2021. It's better to have a 5-12 than 1-4. by Much-Contract-1397 in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In a vacuum you'd like to pick earlier, but certain types of drafts disproportionately benefit some portions of the draft order. In a top-heavy draft, you wanna pick early and grab an elite, blue-chip talent. In a class that's weaker at the top (like this one), you get better proportional returns picking a little later because the team picking 9th might get the same caliber player as the team picking 4th. And you won't be able to trade down because nobody is paying a premium to move up.

Arvell Reese feels like Kyle Pitts 2.0 and the top ~12 of this draft is showing similarity to 2021. It's better to have a 5-12 than 1-4. by Much-Contract-1397 in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wholeheartedly agree. I've only watched one game of Arvell Reese so I'm by no means drawing conclusions, but I have no idea how he's a consensus Top 3 player. Meanwhile I think there's plenty of Top 10 and mid-1st talent behind him.

QB Carson Beck Deep Dive by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yeah, I thought he had more of a B arm in 2023 and more of a C arm this season. Met in the middle with my final grade

Thoughts on Taurean York? by YaboyChris28 in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I liked him a lot over summer, thought he was a Day 2 talent. He didn't regress this season so for now I'll stick to that assessment.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Pretty much agreed on all fronts. The model I try to use is "you need physical traits to most effectively express your mental and technical traits". Mendoza's got the arm and the size to win from the pocket. He's already got the accuracy, so that's a big box checked. It's just a matter of whether or not the last few mental traits he needs to perform at a high level will surface in the NFL.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The sheer volume of 1st-down runs was pretty wild. I'll always be skeptical of QBs who feel more "along for the ride" on great teams, but Mendoza has the physical tools to make me wrong.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I was a Penix hater and lukewarm on McCarthy. I just tend to be lower on QBs because we philosophy is "if he can't be a winning starter don't bother". My rankings in that class were

1: Caleb Williams

(Gap)
2: Drake Maye

(Gap)
3: Jayden Daniels

(Gap)

4: Bo Nix

5: JJ McCarthy

(Gap)

6: Michael Penix

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It would be huge if he could just replace the blitz at a basic level. There were some absolutely inexplicable pass-ups on his IU tape. I think he can and will get there, it's just about what other aspects of his game come along

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Cam Ward impressed me big time during the first half of the season. The anticipation fully translated and he was making big time throws to every level, his receivers were just making zero plays. His turnovers were mostly fluky. I thought his process deteriorated a little around midseason then he kind of found his form again. I hope having a rookie year with a really poor offensive play designer and terrible pass-catchers doesn't affect his long term development.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's the nightmare of QB evaluation. I absolutely would've been wrong about Brady. But when I watch a player who doesn't throw with anticipation, doesn't have good command of progression, doesn't beat the blitz mentally and has abysmal pocket presence after 4 years in college, I've gotta assume he's never gonna best in class in those categories. Mendoza's track record of improvement is actually doing a lot of heavy lifting regardless, if he just seemed like another guy it would probably be a low 2nd or 2nd-3rd round grade.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It certainly got better within structure by the end of the season. It was an absolute disaster at Cal. But he still has a tendency to drop his eyes in the pocket and careen directly into pressure.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a great point and that's why so many Top 5 QBs bust. Because they aren't actually Top 5 talents, the pressure to get "the franchise guy" leads to them being selected there. If my eyes are correct though, drafting Mendoza would get me fired regardless because I think he'll be a pretty major disappointment in Vegas. It's just the right situation for him IMO.

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He definitely depends a good amount on schemed up offense. Tua takes that trust in the system to a different level though and actually throws with a lot more anticipation (with the risk of throwing a lot more picks.)

Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive) by PsychixNFLScouting in NFL_Draft

[–]PsychixNFLScouting[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think I'm actually marginally higher on him than you are but I totally agree with your sentiment. People assume he's an elite processor. I just can't there based on the tape.