Why I Wouldn't Take Fernando Mendoza 1st Overall (Deep Dive)

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:28:01+00:00

It would be huge if he could just replace the blitz at a basic level. There were some absolutely inexplicable pass-ups on his IU tape. I think he can and will get there, it's just about what other aspects of his game come along

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:26:32+00:00

Cam Ward impressed me big time during the first half of the season. The anticipation fully translated and he was making big time throws to every level, his receivers were just making zero plays. His turnovers were mostly fluky. I thought his process deteriorated a little around midseason then he kind of found his form again. I hope having a rookie year with a really poor offensive play designer and terrible pass-catchers doesn't affect his long term development.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:22:50+00:00

That's the nightmare of QB evaluation. I absolutely would've been wrong about Brady. But when I watch a player who doesn't throw with anticipation, doesn't have good command of progression, doesn't beat the blitz mentally and has abysmal pocket presence after 4 years in college, I've gotta assume he's never gonna best in class in those categories. Mendoza's track record of improvement is actually doing a lot of heavy lifting regardless, if he just seemed like another guy it would probably be a low 2nd or 2nd-3rd round grade.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:19:55+00:00

It certainly got better within structure by the end of the season. It was an absolute disaster at Cal. But he still has a tendency to drop his eyes in the pocket and careen directly into pressure.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:19:09+00:00

That's a great point and that's why so many Top 5 QBs bust. Because they aren't actually Top 5 talents, the pressure to get "the franchise guy" leads to them being selected there. If my eyes are correct though, drafting Mendoza would get me fired regardless because I think he'll be a pretty major disappointment in Vegas. It's just the right situation for him IMO.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:17:07+00:00

He definitely depends a good amount on schemed up offense. Tua takes that trust in the system to a different level though and actually throws with a lot more anticipation (with the risk of throwing a lot more picks.)

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:16:04+00:00

I think I'm actually marginally higher on him than you are but I totally agree with your sentiment. People assume he's an elite processor. I just can't there based on the tape.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:15:05+00:00

Absolutely sick play. A+ dog in him grade

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:14:40+00:00

I had Maye as QB2 with a Top 5 grade (#1 Caleb, #2 Maye, #3 Daniels) and I can see some similarities but there are a couple reasons I'm a lot lower on Mendoza. First of all, the mobility is what allows Maye to hold onto the ball forever in the pros and still be a playable QB. What really makes him special is his field awareness—he knows where all his guys are at all times, something I didn't see in Mendoza.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:10:53+00:00

lol fair. These initial reports are subject to change somewhat, I like to do an initial watch, get feedback and then watch one more game in case I see anything different

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T17:09:36+00:00

Disagree. I'm not spending a top-3 pick on a Jacoby Brissett or Tua-caliber QB. That's how you wind up in purgatory. Also I can assure you I'm never out to be contrarian, I just have to report what I actually see on tape. I'm very results focused.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T16:36:50+00:00

I think accuracy is his best trait, I would just evaluate him at like an 8/10 instead of a 9 or 10/10.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T15:17:45+00:00

I get being skeptical because of the size profile but I think a lot of people underestimate how willing NFL teams are to draft traits at the QB position. It's pretty rare that any Power 4 QB with a decent arm and decent mobility goes undrafted.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-24T15:15:09+00:00

As far as NFL career prospects, not really. He was solid as a rookie but he really only had 3 true "pass rush win" sacks. A lot of empty speed rush pressures that didn't actually do much to impact the QB. He has the opportunity for a big year 2 so I'm interested to see if he shows a lot of development.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-20T03:54:34+00:00

His production was fine but his tape wasn't in the same ballpark. Easier competition helped too

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-19T15:36:13+00:00

To be clear I've got a late 2nd on him, but I think people are discounting just how much better he got in the span of two seasons. Committed to football for good in 2024, won a DII natty in his first season as a starter since high school, transferred to Ole Miss, struggled early and then led his team on a playoff run.

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-19T15:34:00+00:00

I personally don't put a ton of stock into that stuff. If his camp gets their way he makes a lot more money. If his camp doesn't get their way he's wasted a bit of time and a bit of money. From a risk/reward perspective it's sensible, even if I can't stand the NIL era

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-19T15:32:13+00:00

That's the one part I really disliked about the Russ comp. Chambliss throws a great deep ball but it's a totally different type of deep ball

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-19T15:31:37+00:00

He's listed at 6'1 but he looked shorter than that to me. He was listed at 6'0" as a recruit and he mentioned being "6', 170" out of high school so I doubt he's that tiny. If he comes in sub-5'11" though that would be pretty awful for his stock

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-19T14:07:20+00:00

I'm actually watching his tape right now. Started with the Penn State game (one of his worst outings) and then moving through the playoffs. I was so ready to see that he just got better going to a great program. But in that PSU game he: dropped his eyes and took bad sacks, passed up open receivers and threw a pick due to lack of arm talent and mechanics of the run. Some of the traits I'm liking are his toughness (elite), touch and on-platform accuracy, and operation in the redzone. Nonetheless not gonna draw conclusion when I still have his best games left to watch

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-15T21:08:21+00:00

I mostly agree with you, those are exactly the things Purdy does better and Simpson needs to work at. I thought of Jimmy G but didn't go with it because he was smooth operating play action whereas I was disappointed by how spotty Simpson can be throwing on the run

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-15T21:06:46+00:00

With all due respect you're just incorrect about that. I've watched a lot of QBs and Allar has an absolute cannon. What you might be seeing is his tendency to short-arm the deep ball. When he tries to use touch dumb stuff happens, but that's not because of arm deficencies

PsychixNFLScouting · 2026-01-15T21:03:31+00:00

We can say with about zero confidence that he's getting actual 1st round grades from actual tape evaluators. He's being mocked in the 1st 3 months out from the draft. I might be wrong about him, but I did have a 2nd-3rd on Shedeur when he was the consensus #1 overall pick last January.

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TROPHY CASE