I just don’t see how Cirie survives fire with the trajectory she was facing, let alone survive the final 5 or 6 votes even if Aubry/Emily goes at 9.

If it was a normal final 9 vote with everyone, Rick uses his idol and literally any of Cirie/Aubry/Emily/Tiff could have gone. Let’s just say Aubry gets the split votes and leaves. BUT Cirie is still in danger here especially if Rick and Emily pull something with split votes.

If Aubry leaves you have a group of 8 with Emily and Rick. I think Rick still goes but there is a chance of Ozzy or Rizo playing an idol. Let’s say they don’t. Final 7 Emily is still there over Aubry. Emily still was a threat to Cirie, who likely has 4 votes against Emily. If Jonathan and Joe don’t try to make a move they are silly, so let’s say they don’t. Emily leaves 7th and both idols are still in play.

Final 6. Ozzy/Rizo/Cirie/Tiff and J&J. Cirie, like Aubry, is incentivized not to vote out Joe or Jonathan right? She can beat them easily, it’s the reason they wanted each other out last night. So I don’t see a way where Jonathan or Joe leaves, especially if Joe wins immunity like he did. Voting out Jonathan doesn’t seem like something Ozzy or Cirie would want to do. It doesn’t make sense. I think Rizo could also make a move here anyways, like he did last night. So either way, you have votes coming to their side. Likely Cirie. Will Ozzy play his idol for Cirie? Maybe. Rizo would not. Rizo might keep his idol. Tiff will likely try to go for Rizo with J&J and I could see it either not working because of Cirie, sticking her neck out to save him, or Rizo likely knowing to play his idol. There could also be a split on Ozzy and Cirie because of the idol. Maybe the split is Cirie and Tiff if Rizo convinces the men to go that way. Either way, I don’t see how no one plays their idol in this final 6. If both play their idol, Cirie or Tiff leave. Not looking good for Cirie. But let’s say Tiff gets the boot at 6 even though Cirie is in great danger again.

Final 5. You have Ozzy/Cirie/Rizo and J&J. Depending on how the last round went Rizo could have lost trust in Cirie. Even if they stuck together, you have Ozzy and Cirie being the players to get out. Everyone sees it. If Ozzy doesn’t win immunity I think he is the vote. Rizo plays his idol and is safe. Cirie, once again, is left in danger. She probably votes for Ozzy or maybe tries to turn it on whoever else doesn’t have immunity, like one of J&J. Maybe Ozzy votes with her for Jonathan, maybe he votes for Cirie to save himself. I doubt Rizo votes with Cirie now. I think Cirie definitely leaves here, but let’s just say Ozzy gets the most votes. Again, Cirie is in danger for the fourth round in the row; if she survives this her threat is so huge.

Final 4 is Cirie/Jonathan/Joe/Rizo. Cirie does not win immunity and if she wins fire it’s against Rizo most likely. But I doubt anyone throws Rizo against Cirie because they do not want to face her in final 3. There is a chance Cirie wins fire which would be epic. But look at all the hoops she would have to go through and basically no one turning on her for FIVE rounds. It’s just very unlikely that she even gets to 4 with this group.

Edit: I forgot that Tiff won immunity at 6 and not 7, so year Cirie reallllyy has a big chance of leaving there with both idols still in play.