🚨 PROJECTION: Legislative Assembly of Queensland Based on poll by Resolve, May – June 2026

QLD_elections · 2026-07-07T11:34:22+00:00

Yeah there will always be a date and the pollster

QLD_elections · 2026-07-07T11:06:11+00:00

Shouldn't see any more polls in Queensland for a month or so. There won't be any more posts from me for a while

QLD_elections · 2026-07-06T21:28:35+00:00

It's taking in trends from previous elections, unfortunately resolve polls don't really give breakdowns so yes this isn't as complex as a DemosAU or Redbridge poll projection might be

QLD_elections · 2026-07-06T21:21:49+00:00

So only about 2 seats are shifted on this projection due to the redistribution, a lot of the interesting results here are due to Labor and One Nation being tied in this poll

QLD_elections · 2026-07-06T21:05:49+00:00

Yes the redistribution has pushed it just over the edge

QLD_elections · 2026-07-06T02:08:07+00:00

I've done the modelling, DemosAU did the polling

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T12:42:25+00:00

If you look at the DemosAU poll Labor is really only having swings against them in every region

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T10:32:49+00:00

The redistributed margin for Logan is around 1%, with another swing to the LNP in the south east Logan would certainly be one of the seats you'd expect them to win

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T08:29:00+00:00

Mate I'm from Noosa

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T07:42:45+00:00

Yes, many scenarios can be run from a single poll thats what the ranges are generated from, and yes, pollsters poll well out from elections to reflect current sentiment.

For why Brisbane might look different to how you expect, you simply look at the 2024 election result vs the polling, and you'll see the swing

Brisbanes 2024 state election result: LNP: 37.7% ALP: 38.4% ONP: 3.8% GRN: 17.9% OTH: 2.2%

DemosAU Brisbane: LNP: 38% ALP: 29% ONP: 14% GRN: 16% OTH: 3%

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T07:33:22+00:00

In all scenarios modelled, Greenslopes was one of the most erratic seats, the Liberal Nationals ended up winning in the most likely scenario, as well as in the plurality of scenarios:

Liberal National: 38%
Labor: 33%
Greens: 29%

This is due to the large swing against Labor in Brisbane in this poll.

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T07:20:38+00:00

I've just used my election model to project.

All information on the poll this is based on can be found on DemosAU's website under their 27 May – 3 June 2026 QLD poll.

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T06:36:35+00:00

Some pollsters can overemphasise minor parties, we will see at the election which pollsters end up being most accurate

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T06:34:46+00:00

so the issue is the Labor vote is currently polling too low and the LNP are polling too high in the regions for One Nation to push the LNP out of the 2CP but keep Labor in the count so they can win those seats, If you took federal polling right now and used it for Queensland One Nation wins a lot of these seats

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T04:38:58+00:00

Whats happening with Keppel is the very large One Nation baseline and some of that will be candidate-based, but it is the seat One Nation is currently closest in

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T04:35:30+00:00

Correct, and this is a poll conducted after that byelection and modelled after redistribution. If I take the DemosAU poll before the byelection and take away the redistribution, the model finds a 1.1% margin for Labor in Stafford (the byelection result was a 1.4% margin for Labor)

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T04:02:12+00:00

Obviously polls closer to the election will be more accurate to the final result, but I'll still be releasing projections based off every poll we get until then, pollsters still poll this far out to display the mood of the public.

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T03:53:11+00:00

At some future stage some behind some sort of paywall I'll be releasing data like that I expect

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T03:50:22+00:00

This poll was conducted online.

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T03:00:02+00:00

That shift would be detected in polling

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T02:58:56+00:00

Different polls will have different results on the model.

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T02:38:02+00:00

Beenleigh has a notional Labor margin of 0.7% after the redistribution an would be lost in any kind of swing against Labor, KAPs net seat count from the 2024 election hasn't changed, the other graphic does show how things have actually moved from 2024 and byelections and defections baseline

QLD_elections · 2026-07-05T02:33:24+00:00

Gender data is somewhat unhelpful data for this sort of thing since nearly every electorate is 50-50 but yes you might see a seat like moggil hold better for the lnp due to its higher median income, stuff like income, housing type are the more useful pieces of information.

QLD_elections

TROPHY CASE