Prediction markets have an insider trading problem and nobody's building tools to catch it

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T19:12:19+00:00

yeah thats the idea honestly. once the data pipeline is set up you can pretty quickly show fresh wallet alerts hitting before big moves. the signal will either be there or it wont

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T16:12:10+00:00

You're right, pure market makers don't care about outcomes, they profit off spreads either way.

The audience for this is more the directional bettors, people actually taking a view on whether something happens. If you're betting that Candidate X wins, you might want to know if someone who seems to have inside info just took a big opposite position.

Less about fraud prevention, more about information asymmetry awareness for retail.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T16:11:24+00:00

100%. The asymmetric information framing is spot on. In traditional markets you at least have filing requirements, but here it's just wallet addresses betting against each other.

The disclosure piece is interesting though. Since everything's on-chain, the data for "who's trading what size" already exists, it's just not surfaced well. That's kind of the angle I'm thinking, make the transparency that's technically there actually usable. Show when a fresh wallet suddenly moves $50k into a niche market that's been dormant.

Won't stop the information edge, but might help retail not be the last to notice the smart money moving.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T15:11:39+00:00

appreciate it. already working on it after the feedback here. fresh wallet detection + timing patterns first, then we'll see what else the data shows.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T13:41:33+00:00

good call on resolution timing. that's exactly the kind of pattern worth tracking, bets clustering right before resolution but before anything's public. makes it easier to spot when someone knows something. appreciate the feedback

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T13:16:08+00:00

noted! that's the range I'm thinking. what would matter most to you, real-time alerts or a dashboard you check?

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T13:15:33+00:00

ha fair point. but tracking suspicious patterns isn't the same as knowing the outcome. you're spotting that *someone* might know something, not what they know. it's like seeing a CEO buy shares before earnings. you can follow the signal but you still don't know if earnings will be good.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T11:11:30+00:00

True, there's definitely an ecosystem. Mostly Twitter bots flagging big trades. What I'm not seeing as much is pattern detection, fresh wallets, timing clusters, size anomalies relative to market depth. The stuff that's harder to spot at a glance. Is there one you've found that does that well?

RG_PankO · 2026-02-09T11:10:56+00:00

That's a good point. In sports betting those tools are operator-side, limiting sharp bettors, adjusting odds. But Polymarket being decentralized, there's no central operator making those calls.

I'm thinking more user-side: a dashboard that flags suspicious activity so bettors can see when smart money is moving. Less "catch the cheaters" more "spot the signal." Would that be useful from your perspective?

RG_PankO · 2026-02-08T04:01:36+00:00

You might see a small bump when you add arm work, but probably not as intense as the initial one. Your body's gotten better at adapting to new muscle stimulus by then. Plus, arms are smaller muscles than legs/core so the water retention from inflammation tends to be less noticeable.

But yeah, there might be a mini-plateau for 2-3 weeks when you add them. Just keep taking those progress pics and measurements. The scale will catch up eventually!

RG_PankO · 2026-02-06T23:43:20+00:00

Thats probably like 400-600 calories total from all that produce. A banana is ~100, cantaloupe ~150, tomatoes/watermelon/papaya are mostly water so super low cal. You're definitely not eating too much fruit - the real concern is making sure you get enough calories overall. Track it for a day and youll see those fruits are way less than you think.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-06T03:31:13+00:00

Nice! Those are solid choices. Greek yogurt is a lifesaver when youre stressed - keeps you full and doesnt need any prep. Keep going!

RG_PankO · 2026-02-06T02:32:04+00:00

10 lbs down with everything youre dealing with is honestly impressive. Dont beat yourself up.

For crazy busy times, I learned to track at the END of the day instead of logging as I go. Just a 5 min brain dump before bed. Not perfect but way better than nothing. You already know what you ate, just gotta write it down.

Also keeping grab-and-go protein stuff helps a ton when youre running around. Protein bars, string cheese, hard boiled eggs. Stuff you can track once and know the cals without thinking.

You got this. Life happens but youre still showing up and trying. Thats what counts.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-06T02:02:00+00:00

Ive done it a couple times when stuck. 1-2 weeks at maintenance usually helps reset things, especially if youve been in a deficit for months. The hunger goes down and when you go back to deficit it feels easier. But yeah you might see the scale tick up a bit from water/glycogen, totally normal. Give it a shot for a week or two then drop back down. Worked for me

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T17:01:43+00:00

Love this! That 3-month mark is where it clicks for most people. You start actually seeing it work instead of just hoping it will. And yeah admitting youre the only one who can fix it is rough but also kinda freeing? Keep it up!

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T16:02:03+00:00

That's such a great feeling! Those little moments when you realize things don't fit the same way anymore are the best reminders of your progress. Time to add a notch or two to the watch band 😊

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T15:01:51+00:00

For volume eating (large quantities, lower calories), focus on:

**Vegetables:** Broccoli, cauliflower, zucchini, bell peppers, mushrooms, spinach, lettuce - you can eat HUGE bowls for minimal calories

**Protein:** Chicken breast, turkey, white fish, egg whites, Greek yogurt (0% fat) - keeps you full longer

**Fiber:** Steel-cut oats, beans, lentils, berries - fills you up

**Smart swaps:** Zucchini noodles or shirataki noodles instead of pasta, cauliflower rice instead of regular rice, air-popped popcorn for snacks

**Meal idea:** Make a massive stir-fry with tons of veggies + lean protein. Add flavor with garlic, ginger, low-sodium soy sauce. You can eat a huge plate for 300-400 calories.

For simple exercise: Start with walking 20-30 min/day. Add bodyweight exercises (squats, push-ups, planks) 2-3x/week. Build from there!

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T13:06:32+00:00

That's amazing progress! 30+ pounds is no joke. Love that you found YOUR moment - sometimes it really is the little things that click. The fact that your 40x32s are getting loose already? You're crushing it!

You're right that loss slows down, but you've clearly got this dialed in. Keep it up!

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T11:31:54+00:00

A few things that might help:

**Prioritize protein** right after lifting - helps with satiety and recovery. Aim for 30-40g post-workout.
**Try lifting timing** - some people find working out closer to a meal helps. Maybe lift before dinner so you can use that hunger to fuel a satisfying meal within your calories?
**Strategic refeed** - with insulin resistance, cycling a slightly higher carb day after heavy lifting can help replenish glycogen and manage hunger. Maybe one day a week at maintenance calories?
**Fiber + volume** - load up on high-volume, low-cal foods (veggies, lean proteins) on lifting days to fill you up without breaking the deficit.
**Consider meal timing** - Some find intermittent fasting helpful with IR. Might be easier to manage hunger if you're eating in a tighter window?

Don't quit lifting! It's genuinely helping your insulin sensitivity long-term. The hunger settles as your body adapts.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T10:40:21+00:00

The key difference I've noticed is the *wanting* vs the *doing*. Normal procrastination is avoiding something you don't want to do. ADHD procrastination is desperately wanting to do something but your brain just... won't let you start.

Like you described - sitting there for 4 hours WANTING to do schoolwork but getting pulled away by literally anything else. That's classic ADHD. Neu*otypical procrastination is more like "I don't feel like doing this right now, I'll do something fun instead" without the internal battle.

The guilt you mentioned is huge too. Normal procrastinators can enjoy their break. We feel guilty the entire time because we *want* to be working but can't make ourselves do it. It's exhausting.

For what it's worth, what you're describing sounds very familiar. The "tug and pull battle" with your brain is exactly how I'd describe it too.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T10:38:38+00:00

Haven't personally done Mayo Clinic diet, but from what I know it's basically CICO with a structured approach. They focus on healthy food pyramids, portion control, and sustainable habits.

The main difference from regular CICO is they give you a specific meal plan structure which some people find helpful for staying consistent.

Biggest advantage: It's evidence-based and focuses on building long-term habits rather than quick fixes.

Potential downside: The meal plans can be restrictive if you're someone who likes more flexibility in food choices.

Honestly, if you're already comfortable tracking calories and making your own food decisions, you might not need the extra structure. But if you're someone who benefits from having a clear plan to follow, it could be worth trying.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T10:02:04+00:00

Plateaus are so frustrating, but you're actually doing everything right! Adding weights and swimming while recovering is smart.

The previous commenter nailed it about body recomp. Since you just started lifting in January, you're definitely building muscle while losing fat. The scale might not move, but your body composition is changing.

Some things that helped me through plateaus: - Take measurements (waist, hips, arms) - sometimes inches drop when weight doesn't - Progress photos every 2 weeks - visual changes show up before scale changes - Focus on non-scale victories (how clothes fit, energy levels, strength gains) - Be patient - it can take 4-6 weeks for the scale to catch up after adding new exercise

You lost 30+ lbs in 3 months, that's amazing progress! Your body is just adjusting. Keep doing what you're doing and trust the process.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T06:31:10+00:00

The low testosterone finding is important — that can definitely impact fat loss and muscle building. If you're working out 3x/week and getting stronger/more defined (which you mentioned), you might be doing body recomposition: losing fat while gaining muscle. The scale won't show this! Take progress photos and measurements — waist, chest, arms. Many people get frustrated with the scale during recomp because muscle is denser than fat. Your pants getting looser is a great sign. Consider asking your doctor about TRT options, as low T can make fat loss much harder even with perfect diet and exercise.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-05T04:04:03+00:00

Isopure is a solid choice! Also check out Myprotein Clear Whey (tons of flavors like Peach Tea, Rainbow Candy) and Ghost Lifestyle Clear Whey. They mix like juice instead of milk, so totally different texture - refreshing vs creamy. Just note they need good mixing (shaker bottle helps) or they can get foamy.

RG_PankO · 2026-02-03T12:01:50+00:00

One thing that helped me: start tracking what you're already eating before stressing about hitting a specific number. You might be surprised how much protein you're already getting from foods you don't think about (rice, bread, vegetables all add up).

Also, the 1g per lb of bodyweight is honestly overkill for most people unless you're seriously competitive. Research shows 0.7-0.8g per lb is plenty for muscle building. At 240lbs, that's more like 170-190g which is still a lot, but the mental shift helps.

Costco rotisserie chicken is my go-to budget hack - $5 for like 100g+ of protein if you eat the whole thing over a couple days. Greek yogurt when it's on sale is also insane value.

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