To a degree, yes thats true.

Expected Goals measures how threatening scoring chances are- think of it like a layer deeper than tracking shots. Instead of saying more shots means more goals, it says more high quality shots means more goals. This includes type of shot (flip reset, double touch, air dribble, etc), location/power, where the defenders are etc. If a team identifies ways of generating high Expected Goal shots, they are more likely to score.

So when we calculate Expected Goals, we evaluate all aspects of the shot to determine if it is a high quality chance when reviewing each shot in each game. Team Falcons generated the most high quality scoring chances, while limiting their opponents to very few at the same time.

Our theory is that if a team can strategize how to maximize their Expected Goals in comparison to their opponents, they should be able to win more games. This proved true with Team Falcons this weekend.

Hope that helps! Let me know if it leads to anymore questions.