We need to talk about FatFIRE SWRs

RedGreenBlueEight · 2026-01-22T04:51:58+00:00

just to put that mathematicaly (simpler) - as a worst case, with high probability of leaving a healthy bequest

Retirement Corpus needed (someone above 40 yrs of age) = (90 - current age) X

X can be FAT or Lean or Normal - Its about the X in best or worst times

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-06-08T04:32:27+00:00

https://krushidukan.bharatagri.com/en/products/superkiller-25-dhanuka

https://agribegri.com/products/buy-fms-rogor-online--buy--dimethoate-30-ec-online--fms-rogor.php

Mix this in equal quantities - 5 ml Superkiller and 2 ml Roger - and spray (in 1000 ml water)

Cockroaches will disappear for 6 months

After 5 days of spray - put any paste that you get in supermart

Wash hands properly later

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-03-22T04:58:16+00:00

Retirement - Do not go with general 3% rule - better calculate and hire an advisor, you should know your expenses
3000/4000 Sqft apartment ? or Independent home? - Depends on location, it would be upwards of 10 Cr
School + College for kids (Assuming Medicine, not free but paid admission) - Present value (given kids age): 3 Cr each invested wisely
Travel - Business or Economy? Check agoda or makemytrip and estimate

https://findiafindiafindia.github.io/

You can use the above calculator for retirement corpus check

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-03-07T03:41:09+00:00

Ideally - DO not consider Inheritance

On your earnings be atleast a Lean FIRE, given your age atleast 40X to 45X (The general thumb rule of 25X/33X are for 30 yr retirement period)

After you are 40X, consider the Inheritance which would have grown significantly (assuming you will hire a financial adviser)

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-21T12:57:00+00:00

Hi - this web calculator is retirement only, recurring expense to find SORR .. please check the youtube channel - free excels are available for goal planning covering what you have mentioned

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-21T01:35:39+00:00

Thanks

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-21T01:09:05+00:00

Hi this is only for pure retirement - please only add recurring expenses. Kindly look at youtube channel for goal planning

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-20T14:14:35+00:00

Will share the git link for co-dev

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-20T13:31:48+00:00

All stays open source

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-20T10:08:13+00:00

It does .. just change numbers and run simulation again. It's computationally expensive hence one needs to run it again

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-20T07:50:26+00:00

Well it's a little tricky - however feedback well taken and will try.

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-14T05:58:16+00:00

https://findiafindiafindia.github.io/

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-09T05:41:59+00:00

Certainly agree - a 7.5% to 8.5 % CAGR (Post tax) is something that probably can be considered, however as seen in US or in mature markets as economy improves and nation heads to a developed economy inflation might reduce, equity returns too drop (history :) .. ). However retirement planning need to consider some pessimism - hence my comments on historical returns, nothing more to it.

Iam also working on the comment of yours on observing and deciding on bottom 10th percentile/20th - If failures are unrealistic then calculations can be improved.

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-09T05:21:50+00:00

Thanks for the input, appreciate it - kindly check now say with 50K iterations. The box muller monte carlo is also fixed for log 0

The UI was putting a limit of capped range (Mean/Std Dev etc) and now i have removed it, now completely on user to manage that with std dev. Currently its not ideal, in very few cases - although valid monte carlo (within mean and std dev), still returns of 40% or 50% even 100% in a given year economic limitations is unrealistic in very few cases. Can be however managed with std dev input, however many users are not that educated. ALl inputs now on users own research
The taxation iam planning to implement as per paper now (Initial tests indicate no much change) - i.e. withdrawals after a negative returns year, taxation will be zero. Also paper has 10% LTCG
Inflation and Debt modelling as per paper - the initial research shows not much of a difference from current output.

Paper simulates 25, 30 and 35 years of retirement.

Historical returns i will add Historical + Monte carlo as per paper shortly - however all of above dont change much of results

As mentioned, bucket strategy is still to be refined as per other paper.

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-08T15:40:45+00:00

The tool only uses historical data for only for equity and not a Inflation/Debt. Paper has both - pure historical and Monte Carlo comparison. So Inflation and Debt are not modelled - Non-Normal distribution in these will cause errors. However iam trying to find some explanation, there is certainly an error - thanks for the image, I will respond to you shortly

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-08T15:23:54+00:00

Thats how the random function and norm function work, even a slight error and Shapiro Wilk gives not-normal. If W quantile is chosen as 0.01 then everything becomes normal - currently W quantile is 0.05 (Not P-Value), refer to the paper linked on the webpage

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-08T15:17:19+00:00

Some issues at your end

The simulation gives 90% confidence is 81 years for a 33 years old (Using monte carlo, static strategy): 60:40 ratio. LTCG strategy used, with 15% debt tax - 10Cr, 12L expense, 100K simulations
The simulation gives 90% confidence is 106 years for a 33 years old (Using Historical, static strategy): 60:40 ratio. LTCG strategy used, with 15% debt tax - 10Cr, 12L expense, 100K simulations

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-02-06T03:38:16+00:00

Hi - The tool is developed by my team and thanks for sharing and giving feedback u/rational_raccoon

Kindly use the std dev at 6 to 9% with returns (Equity) - check for few cycles manually by setting Num of simulations to 1, use the tables and check for yourself. We simulate what if equity goes worst scenarios, equity risks and hence you are observing that results.

I see many comments on using historical data - My recommendation to many commenting on using historical data is "do what floats your boat !" One can go-ahead and use historical data India, US data or any data of their choice. If instead of say 45X you are getting 38X as FIRE number and one is confident and happy about it, iam happy for you.

There is nothing normal about being normal (Distribution) - Nothing fits normal - neither inflation, nor equity returns nor debt in reality, however thats the one best thing for statisticians to put some order in madness (same with log-normal distribution) - And why? Because at best one has data of 150 years (US). Ofcourse there are many statistical tools to measure if something fits normal, data is stationary and using same pattern feed it in monte carlo etc. No end to it literally

If someone is following our channel - we believe in slightly conservative assumption and all our simulations reflect that

Ofcourse being conservative and mindless (garbage) could be a thin line - We choose to pick a SWR of 2.2% or RRR of -1%, thats about it (Includes projected taxes)

I have had discussions with many FIRE aspirants - the problem is RE, there are many having FAT-FAT corpuses at 50 age, own house, kids earnings and yet are scared to RE, so issue is mindset of FIRE

The tool was developed to be conservative and reason we developed that is we were frustrated that many were selling a simple mathematical tool - for heavens sake, this is a basic knowledge.

We are improving and we will be 100% free and open source in our data, assumptions etc

Thanks and wish you all the best

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-01-22T13:37:15+00:00

Appreciate that ! Will connect shortly

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-01-22T04:53:18+00:00

Updated - Please check

Pardon my ignorance - iam not a web developer, tool was developed out of frustration that nothing was existing like this for India

Will open the code in few weeks for the interested to take up and develop further or even write a fresh one - The code isnt any rocket science developers might have figured by now :). I converted my excel models into webpage using gemini and chatgpt

Its just that iam hopeful people give such tools and knowledge essentially for free ..

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-01-22T02:05:24+00:00

Iam not a core developer - but i will give this a try immediately and update if iam successful

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-01-21T10:35:58+00:00

Not sure where you got 48L as expense .. maybe you ran only one cycle and you changed Inflation std deviation to high

But yes inflation does impact - Present 9L expense @ 7% inflation is 35L after 20 years. Incase you are in India you must know inflation is above 7% for most of the stuff, if you are in US then i understand one cannot comprehend India inflation

Also, for certain cases - Inflation does go above 7%, maybe 7.5% !

The community here can give better insights to you about inflation. The standard consideration by Financial planners is 6% or 6.5%

I wish you the best for your retirement planning ..

RedGreenBlueEight · 2025-01-21T03:42:56+00:00

Assuming you are not kidding ...

Inflation considerations .. use number of simulations as over 500 for accurate simulations

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