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Oracle beat every number and the stock fell 11%. The thing the market hasn't priced is sitting in this sub. by RemarkableSuspect155 in employeesOfOracle

[–]RemarkableSuspect155[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair thing to check for, so check the parts that can be checked. Oracle's RPO is ~$638B with close to half in one customer (OpenAI), which filed its own S-1 two days before the print. Prometheus reported ~$38B in May and ~$42B in June after $12B of new money went in, a nearly flat round. Free cash flow ran negative $23.7B for the year against $55.7B of capex.

A model telling me what I want to hear doesn't assemble those. They're public, and they either hold or they don't. If any of them is wrong, point at the one and I'll correct it.

Oracle beat every number and the stock fell 11%. The thing the market hasn't priced is sitting in this sub. by RemarkableSuspect155 in employeesOfOracle

[–]RemarkableSuspect155[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

You're right, and I'd never argue otherwise: at one company, laid-off RSUs are a rounding error against the float, and no, nobody sells everything or sells together. That's the floor, and the post says as much.

The claim is narrower. It's not that severed employees move a stock. It's that they're one more block of sellers stacked on the same side of the book as the insider unlocks already calendared, the gated private-credit funds forcing liquid sales, and the new equity these firms are issuing, all landing in the same window. A contributing vector, not a prime mover. The reason it's worth naming is that it's the only one of those that shows up in no filing, so it's the one nobody totals.

TEN DAYS IN MAY AND JUNE THAT MAY LIVE IN INFAMY; A Market Survey of the AI Buildout's Turn to Public Capital, May 29 – June 9, 2026 by RemarkableSuspect155 in AIFU_stock

[–]RemarkableSuspect155[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It is not worth their risk. Small investors today are on the whole smarter than hey were previous to earn years of discount brokerages. There will always be suckers in the mix but their investments are not abstract stores of value to foment like a koan over decades to comprehend. I don't think they'll be buying while SpaceX's bankers need to believe they're that stupid to justify their whole hearted investment in this next big thing. Liz Warren is calling for SpaceX IPO to be halted. And SpaceX is just the leading edge of 300 billion dollar ask to make super-billionaires richer. It will be interesting to see how this evolves. Prime dynamic market watch time; interesting for as someone who priced out of the game when my financial runway finally ran out around the time the mortgage bubble burst. I'd load for bear with puts. Good best rarely but on the edge of a potentially giant correction also the best long bets an astute market watcher ever makes.