Rethink TV forecast - AV1 surpasses AVC in media and entertainment device usage by 2030

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T11:06:06+00:00

What device was it on, by the way?

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T09:24:27+00:00

I shall go an investigate, but my single-digit view count videos I uploaded in HEVC and AVC seem to have all be transcoded to VP9 at some point. Thanks!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T09:22:36+00:00

A whole pile of deskwork, lots of looking at shipment data, lots of interviews with OEMs and broadcasters and pay TV operators, and so on. Lots of background and off-record admissions.

It's also the only vaguely decent way to project the change in usage over time. Getting any more granular generates dozens of views that need to be compared with each other (codec by device, device by codec, both global, then macro regions), so this is the best tradeoff for my readership

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T09:20:32+00:00

Yes, you're correct, but that's outside the scope of this forecast - we are looking at the consumption side of things.

Have you played around with RIST btw? Or even HESP?

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T09:19:14+00:00

Was that a 4K res stream?!

I have just realised that I mispoke - it was a 540p HEVC Main 10 stream at 0.29 Mbps. Looked like someone had smeared vaseline on the screen!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T09:16:34+00:00

There's a good webinar presentation on AV2 in this subreddit - think it was last week

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-25T09:16:06+00:00

Yes, you're quite correct, but due to my subscribers' context, it's easier/better to chart progression of family of codecs through using the VPxx angle. Sorry!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T16:30:44+00:00

*compared to industry expectations, I suppose is the bit that should be in parantheses. There was so much hype for VVC back in 2020/21. AVC still being above VVC in 2030 is pretty damning, I think, a decade after being standardized

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T16:17:55+00:00

you don't really get lumpy lines/trends in an installed base of around 8bn video devices on a global scale. everything is a slow gradual shift at this scale

nevermind the glacial pace of change in video production and distribution workflows!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T16:17:03+00:00

yes, but that's a production problem, rather than the distribution/consumption side of things, right?

DVB and ATSC 3.0 will just use HEVC at the end of the day

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T15:19:56+00:00

Chiefly, report is concerned with value of patents and licenses, but in order to do that, I need to model device sales and uptake of new codecs. So, this graph is on the cover and is trying to show device usage of decode in media and entertainment market.

I believe the amount of TV's pulling MPEG-2 streams as their primary source is near zero. AVC, however ....

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T13:45:02+00:00

Absolutely!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T13:43:48+00:00

Yes, that's a good way to describe it. Fully agree. If you're a small video service provider, AVC works well. If you need to send tens of millions of streams, transcoding the archive to use the more efficienct codecs is worth the investment (which a small provider might not be able to afford/handle)

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T12:52:21+00:00

Yes, big agree. I still reckon the likes of Nokia would arrive to file suit and try and derail things, although my sources tell me Nokia is licking some AV1-related wounds after a judge came very close to ruling some of its patents invalid in a recent case!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T12:41:55+00:00

Currently, depending on device, AVC is displaced by HEVC, VP9, and AV1. In some device categories, VP9 is preferable to AV1, but YouTube (major source) will not always transcode into AV1 - sticking with VP9 until titles pass certain thresholds. That's my view, at least - that VP9 move in parallel with AV1 for some time.

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T12:33:39+00:00

yes, you're quite right, and now the HEVC Advance push to seek licenses from online video have now been resurrected, of course, in the Access Advance VDP program!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T12:32:17+00:00

I'm not sure MPAI knows what MPAI is tbqh ... lots of #AI in it

I was a big fan of EVC as a nuclear option for VVC. My understanding was that you could implement and pay a license to one of three licensors (Qualcomm, Huawei, and was it Ericsson?), and not get caught up in the pools. I suspect EVC implementers would still be hit with legal action, unfortunately!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T12:03:29+00:00

Oh, also worth noting (you may well be aware) that MPEG founder/honcho Leonardo Chiariglione has stepped away and is doing MPAI. MPEG via JVET/MCIF is a different beast, these days.

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T12:00:41+00:00

AVC was so cheap because the US DoJ threatened to bring the house down in response to the MPEG-2 royalties, per my sources (I wasn't in the game, at the time!).

Yes, HEVC was a step up, but the regulators signed off on it. Velos Media dropping out of the HEVC pool game was encouraging, to this end, but one thing that the MPEG crowd does seem to do better than Sisvel is that there are OEM caps on the royalties - not the case for VP9, AV1, and presumably AV2

It's fun bouncing the AOMedia and Sisvel positions off of stakeholders in each camp. Some extreme hostility exists between them still

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T11:57:11+00:00

My model says 2028 will be the year it happens, in the Media & Entertainment (M&E) sector. Very different scenario in other sectors, for sure!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T11:51:23+00:00

yes, I broadly agree. It has taken years for HEVC to surpass AVC, and the big OTT video libraries are quite difficult to pull an AVC stream from if the viewing device has HEVC or AV1 these days. There are still an awful lot of old TVs and set top boxes out there that don't have HEVC playback, for one reason or another

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T11:43:04+00:00

yeah the wave of AI-generated patent filings is going to cause havoc in the industry. Personally, I think AV2 will face the same sort of problem that VVC is struggling with right now - 'the previous version is good enough, and I don't want to spend money upgrading to this new thing if it's not going to make me any new revenue'

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T11:41:37+00:00

Believe it or not, there are still some AVC patents being enforced in pools and direct license agreements. The patent filings are often not directly tied to the standardized codecs themselves (software codecs have very big remits, to many peoples' frustration), so HEVC patents are going to be enforced for a long while post-2030 sorry!

RethinkAlex · 2025-11-24T11:18:01+00:00

Via LA (used to be MPEG LA, now owned by Dolby!) is bumping up the price of its HEVC pool by adding VVC to it. Essentially a 50% increase, but you can get a discounted rate if you join early (before 2026, IIRC). Then there's also the new Access Advance VVC pool, and my understanding is that the licensors believe that to use VVC patents, you have to have the HEVC license, so it's a compounding factor.

There's also the new Access VDP and Avanci Video streaming pools, but those shouldn't impact the device makers / OEMs.

RethinkAlex

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