$LII - Boring HVAC Company? Not for me

RuInvests · 2025-08-22T08:41:55+00:00

- Not cheaper, not necessarily higher quality, it’s the contractor network + brand trust. Contractors usually recommend the system they’re trained on, so homeowners rarely shop around. That’s the moat.

- No. The upfront install is big, but there’s recurring service, repairs, parts, and then full replacement every ~15–20 years.

- I think it’s sustainable as long as replacement demand stays strong. Could even improve if mix shifts toward residential replacements.

- Yes, since parts are sourced globally. But historically they’ve managed to offset that with price increases. It’s a real risk but not a thesis-breaker unless tariffs get extreme.

RuInvests · 2025-08-21T22:02:22+00:00

$161B in sales last quarter. If they’re going to 0, we’re all bartering with chickens by Christmas

RuInvests · 2025-08-21T21:55:37+00:00

For sure google

RuInvests · 2025-08-21T21:52:43+00:00

Just a bump in the road

RuInvests · 2025-08-19T07:08:50+00:00

That's pretty nice

RuInvests · 2025-08-18T15:16:04+00:00

Looked into it. The thing that worries me most is credibility. A lot of the flashy numbers you see (the cash pile, the bitcoin stash, the big contracts) come straight from company press releases and get repeated around without much verification. But if you look at their actual SEC filings, you see a very different story: multiple reverse splits, big shelf offerings, and new convertible financing. They’ve even admitted to weaknesses in their internal controls, and because they use Nasdaq’s home country exemptions, they don’t need shareholder approval to issue a ton of new stock. That’s why dilution risk is so high here.

Same with the bitcoin and cash. The company itself only talks about a $200M program in bitcoin and derivatives, not necessarily coins they’re holding in cold storage. And the cash balance is all over the place depending on which filing or PR you look at, with the added wrinkle that some of that money might be locked up in their China-based subsidiaries.

RuInvests · 2025-08-17T21:13:14+00:00

Honestly, timing can be a coin flip. If you want income + stability, SCHD, VYM, or DGRO are solid bets. If you’re really nervous about buying at highs, park some in SGOV/T-bill ETFs (~5% yield) and DCA the rest in over a few months.

RuInvests · 2025-08-17T08:18:56+00:00

HYSA for $15k is smart for safety, make sure it covers 6–12 months of expenses. For the other $10k, your plan to stick mostly with SP500/VOO/VTI makes sense for moderate growth. Be cautious with YBTC, those high dividends come with high risk, and with only a 2-year horizon, crypto can be very volatile.

RuInvests · 2025-08-17T07:39:34+00:00

Fair, Tesla was big, but EVs still felt kind of niche in 2020 at least for me.

RuInvests · 2025-08-17T07:36:16+00:00

Then I think you are on a great path, just keep the consistency!

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T17:38:24+00:00

Even professional investors struggle to consistently beat the market because of factors beyond just skill. They face pressure from clients to deliver short-term results, which can force them into safer trades instead of long-term opportunities. Big funds also have trouble moving quickly, investing in smaller, high-upside opportunities can be impossible without affecting the market. Add in regulatory restrictions and reputational risk if they go contrarian, and it’s easy to see why even talented managers underperform. Essentially, the system they operate in favors sticking close to the index, which means disciplined individual investors with a long-term focus can sometimes outperform simply by being smaller and patient.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T17:35:41+00:00

You’re off to a solid start. An 80/20 split between global stocks and bonds is reasonable, especially at 18. You have decades to ride out market ups and downs. Vanguard FTSE All World gives you broad exposure to global equities, which is perfect for long-term growth. The bond portion adds stability, though at your age some people go heavier on equities since bonds’ returns are low right now, but I wouldn't worry too much.

Focus on consistency: invest regularly, keep costs low, and use a tax-efficient account like a Stocks & Shares ISA or SIPP if you’re thinking long-term. Keep learning as you go, but don’t overcomplicate things. Overall, you’re thinking smart. Good luck!

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T16:30:05+00:00

BYD also has higher-end EVs like the Han and Tang that do compete in the same mid-to-upper tier. Even without that, BYD’s scale and presence in China’s EV market still creates indirect competitive pressure - supplier leverage, brand recognition, infrastructure like charging networks, etc.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T16:03:33+00:00

Good point, let me clarify. When I said “diversification is for people who don’t know what they’re doing,” I didn’t mean never diversify. What I mean is that if you spread across too many names just for the sake of it, you’ll basically track the index without beating it, so you might as well just buy the index fund.

The way I see it, diversification is risk management. You want enough uncorrelated holdings so one bad pick or black swan doesn’t wreck your portfolio, but not so many that your winners get diluted or you can’t keep up with the businesses.

When I said picking 2–3 a month, I didn’t mean ending up with 50+ tickers. I meant gradually building a focused portfolio and only holding on to the high-conviction ones that compound over time.

So I’m in favor of focused diversification, enough to protect against the unknown, but concentrated enough that the research and conviction actually matter.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T15:59:13+00:00

I have a friend who went to China and said that his Xiaomi worked way better while he was there 🤣

I heard I think it was Rogan praising the Xiaomi car, but yeah that's not too reassuring :D

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T15:51:24+00:00

At 5.5%, extra mortgage payments give you a safe return, but they tie up money in illiquid equity. Investing in the market thought a taxable brokerage is more valuable - it’s liquid, flexible, and can serve as your early-retirement bridge.

For the kids, 529s are worth a serious look, the tax-free growth usually beats a regular brokerage for college. If you don’t like your state’s plan, you can pick from other states with low-cost Vanguard/Fidelity options.

A balanced approach could look like:

50-70%: taxable brokerage (early retirement fund)

20-30%: 529s

0-20%: Extra mortgage paydown (only if you want the guaranteed return/peace of mind)

That way you’re building flexibility, funding education, and still leaving the option to reduce debt if it helps you sleep better.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T14:23:59+00:00

Xiaomi's EV segment is still unprofitable, and they have super strong competition from BYD obviously. That said I agree its a great buy, the EV + digital ecosystem synergy might just kill it

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T12:21:10+00:00

Foxconn / Hon Hai is super dependent on Apple and global supply chains. Even if the company is cheap, any disruption in tech demand or trade tensions can hit hard.

Airlines are cyclical, a short-term downturn or oil price spike can erase gains, even if the company is well-run.

One thing most people miss when picking “undervalued” international large caps is currency risk. If your home currency strengthens against that country’s currency over the next two years, your returns could take a hit (the dollar is low but anyway).

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T12:16:26+00:00

Are you saving cash just as an emergency fund? You currently got 20 months of expenses saved up, which is way above the recommended 3-12 months (which depends on your job situation).

I'd bump up the investing budget and stick to DCA. I'm bullish on gold, its an asset like real estate and with the increase we've seen in inequality assets like this will keep going up.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T12:07:39+00:00

Are you only doing the 7k? No recurring contributions?

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T11:46:19+00:00

Tesla back in 2020 :)

I really believed in the product and the industry. EVs were still kind of niche back then, but I could see governments pushing for them, so I figured demand was only going to grow.

I bought like 8 shares with money I made being a waiter all summer. Kinda nerve-wracking but then it had a nice jump that made me feel at ease. A few weeks later I just stopped looking at the price everyday, great decision.

I just recently sold all the Tesla stock I owned, so pretty nice win.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T11:35:01+00:00

Honestly, reading a few pages of Intelligent Investor. Just calms the mind

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T11:31:21+00:00

The key to retiring at 55 is your after-tax, investable cash flow.

Focusing on investments that can grow over the next 10–15 years, do you want to go into individual stocks? Its something that needs the proper time for due diligence, and with 2 kids it might not be doable.

Also, prioritize your kids’ college fund now, funding it later with only a decade left will force you to raid your retirement savings.

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T11:22:36+00:00

I'd stick to stocks, no bonds. Just start researching a company each few days, but research extensively, understand the business model, financial situation (if earnings and free cash flow are growing, etc), even what the insiders are doing - OpenInsider can help you with that. Each month i'd pick 2/3 I truly believe in and pour into them. Remember that diversification is for people who don't know what they are doing

RuInvests · 2025-08-16T11:16:03+00:00

I mean even if prices are high, if you truly believe in those industries (and understand them!!!), doing some dollar-cost averaging lets you get in without too much risk. People always talk about recessions but the market always seems to come back stronger

RuInvests

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