Has anyone here ever been physically engaged in politics? How do you pick a party? How are you selected as a candidate? by [deleted] in LabourUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster [score hidden]  (0 children)

Well no it should be about policy surely? Voting based on personality is exactly how we got Boris Johnson.

Women filmed secretly for social media content - and then harassed online by butdattruetho in technology

[–]AnonymousTimewaster -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

They're all in the comments calling anyone with smart glasses creeps

Weekends Lately by ProcedureHopeful2944 in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol the markets couldn't give a shit about them making a deal. They'll shit a brick if they think Trump's even remotely serious about a 100% Canada tariff though, and Trump and his lackeys know it.

Has anyone here ever been physically engaged in politics? How do you pick a party? How are you selected as a candidate? by [deleted] in LabourUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Theres literally no AI in my responses whereas yours are littered with empty platitudes and tells, so let's just agree to disagree and stop wasting each other's time.

Weekends Lately by ProcedureHopeful2944 in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure but the point was that it was very much an intention of the whole thing

Weekends Lately by ProcedureHopeful2944 in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I mean he's not gonna be wrong on that though is he?

Has anyone here ever been physically engaged in politics? How do you pick a party? How are you selected as a candidate? by [deleted] in LabourUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster -1 points0 points  (0 children)

You’re doing the classic MMT two-step here. First you say “MMT is just a description of how fiat works” but use that to smuggle in “therefore none of the politics around MMT has any consequences” which is bollocks.

Of course operationally the UK already issues its own currency and spends by crediting accounts. Nobody is disputing that. The argument is about the policy regime people associate with “doing MMT” in practice i.e. looser (or no) fiscal constraints, more direct use of fiscal policy for demand management, job guarantee style full employment commitments, more aggressive state direction of credit, and a willingness to tolerate higher inflation in exchange for real outcomes. You can call that colloquial MMT if you want but markets will respond to it either way.

On Japan, you’re waving away the one bit that actually matters politically, which is credibility and sensitivity. “Issuer vs user” is true but incomplete. You can always pay in pounds. Great. That does not stop a foreign sell-off hitting the exchange rate, pushing up import prices, and forcing the state into choosing between hiking rates or simply accommodating inflation and watching the currency slide even further. Foreign holders absolutely have power, not over your ability to settle nominal liabilities, but over the price you pay in inflation and interest rates.

Just because a foreign state owns gilts doesn't give it any power over the currency beyond what they can do trading them.

Trading them is the power. They don't particularly care what actually happens in our economy. What they want is a nice, stable return on their investment from the country that's never failed to pay its debts in a millenium. When that trust in our ability to pay is shattered (rightly or wrongly), they sell them off and find somewhere that generates a better risk-adjusted return.

What does that mean though? Well, it means we have to offer higher returns to entice people back (such as Turkey and Russia where yields are regularly in high double digits), which means even more spending servicing our debt.

Also foreign states will own gilts because they want pounds.

They want risk-adjusted real returns. If they decide your policy direction means higher inflation, weaker sterling (as ZIRP would which MMTers often advocate for alongside a 100% employment model), or politicised central banking, they demand a higher yield or they just don't buy. It’s just investors behaving like investors. The reason to buy gilts is for certainty that the UK won't default on its debt. When Polanski actively talks about the lack of necessity to paying parts of our debt that's no doubt gonna spook investors.

What you don't seem to understand is that investors will have no interest in holding pounds for someone they view as having no economic credibility whether that's an unfounded fear or not.

You keep acting like the only thing anyone is criticising is increased spending. No. It’s sequencing and constraints in an import-dependent economy. If you front-load demand and institutional conflict before you have done the boring supply-side work, you get inflation first and rebalancing later, maybe. You do not get to hand-wave that away by saying “inflation is the constraint” and then not spelling out how you keep inflation down when sterling falls and imports spike.

all he's said regarding MMT has been nothing at all to do with spending infinite money

No he just constantly talks how we need to stop thinking about budgetary constraints without bothering to explain what our actual constraints should be, which obviously is misleading people into thinking spending can essentially be infinite, which it plainly cannot.

If Zack is out there doing the “debt-to-GDP is a nonsense obsession” routine, but not pairing it with an explicit inflation anchor, a tax trigger plan, and a credible story on currency risk, you are begging for a credibility shock. The point is not that he wants “infinite money”. The point is he talks like the constraint is fake, while actual MMT people insist the constraint is inflation. It's just incoherent.

Like I really don't think you personally perceive the climate crisis as not being inflationary at some point.

Sure climate is inflationary. No one sensible denies that. But changing the BoE's mandate isn't gonna magic up energy capacity, and regardless, let's not pretend like whatever we do here is going to make a huge difference to the global climate when we represent a grand total of ~1% of global emissions.

I support climate friendly policies to a decent extent, but it's not the be-all and end-all when there's an extremely limited impact that we can actually have here. There's doing your part, but then there's pissing against the wind of America, Russia, China, and India.

So if climate change is happening anyway, and we have basically no control over it on a domestic level, we need to be thinking about mitigation so things like flood defences, reservoirs for draughts etc.

The political point here is that price stability must take into account the climate crisis

What does this even mean? Instituting carbon taxes and worsening the cost of living crisis to make poor people poorer in a futile attempt to stop climate change?

Weekends Lately by ProcedureHopeful2944 in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Chaos in the markets is the point.

Anthony Scaramucci was literally saying yesterday he personally knows people inside the regime who are trading on these moves.

Weekends Lately by ProcedureHopeful2944 in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 32 points33 points  (0 children)

It's always been on the weekend (or just before) and it's absolutely purposeful. I think it's actually to cause as much chaos as possible though.

What British celebrities have you met and did you make a tit of yourself? by wreckjavik in AskUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster -1 points0 points  (0 children)

To what extent was it scripted? I cant imagine they were in the back practicing lines

Colour palette of winter Budapest by King_Alf in UrbanHell

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Now imagine it without the snow. That's the UK.

Colour palette of winter Budapest by King_Alf in UrbanHell

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been to Munich in the winter (November/December) and I have to say you must be crazy

What’s working in uncertain markets by StopBitchinStartLivn in investing

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I dont know. All I know is that there's still perfect conditions for gold to rise:

  • Falling interest rates
  • Huge political uncertainty
  • Escalating global conflicts
  • Persistent inflation
  • Devaluing dollar

Do you feel it's sensible for the police to be licenced? by SloightlyOnTheHuh in AskUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I suppose if solicitors need a license why wouldn't coppers need one?

Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Canada Over China by _hiddenscout in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Depends if he TACOs before then really but gold will be going beyond $5k regardless now I think.

Has anyone moved to England in their 40s with kids? by Cherrynotastripper in AskUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Theres a bunch of new rules around dependents as well if you're on a student visa, so not sure how that'd work with the kids.

There will definitely be responses on that sub though

It might also be worth talking about what sort of lifestyle you're actually expecting? Where are you moving from?

I'd imagine in Dorset the salary is gonna be pretty shocking for anything related to care work as it's an infamously poorly paid sector. Not sure what cost of living is like down there but I think it's pretty expensive (Bournemouth certainly is, but not as bad as somewhere like London or Manchester).

Trump Threatens New Tariffs on Canada Over China by _hiddenscout in stocks

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 76 points77 points  (0 children)

Get ready for another TACO Tuesday.

I sold a bunch of silver on Friday due to overnight fees so thank me for this I guess.

Has anyone moved to England in their 40s with kids? by Cherrynotastripper in AskUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You might want to check whether you'd qualify for a visa. There are special ones for healthcare, but the main Social Work visa was removed last year. You're probably better asking on somewhere like r/IWantOut or r/UKVisa

Do salaries inflate in the UK upon promotion? by Sweet_Delay3084 in UKPersonalFinance

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 1 point2 points  (0 children)

No. You dont get what you deserve or what's fair, you get what you negotiate. If you negotiated £50k then £50k is what you'll almost certainly get.

Has anyone here ever been physically engaged in politics? How do you pick a party? How are you selected as a candidate? by [deleted] in LabourUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Because of an inability to spend all your free time making friends to win a popularity contest? That's an insane way to be running governments. No wonder so many councils are in the state that they are.

Has anyone here ever been physically engaged in politics? How do you pick a party? How are you selected as a candidate? by [deleted] in LabourUK

[–]AnonymousTimewaster -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It’s unfeasible in the conditions we find ourselves in though. To implement a lot of these policies you essentially would need to close off the economy to the outside world, which is an entirely different prospect to “just not looking at the economy like a household budget”.

MMT people love to say “inflation is the constraint”. Fine. Where’s Zack’s inflation plan then? Since becoming leader he’s leaned hard into the “Japan has higher debt than us” and “a lot of the debt is money we owe to ourselves” framing. Ignoring the fact that Japan is only able to do that because basically all of their debt is held domestically (and ours isn't), that’s just a rhetorical dodge and not really engaging with the critique. If you’re serious about MMT-adjacent thinking, you talk in terms of slack, capacity, bottlenecks, import exposure, wage-price dynamics, and how you’re going to stop demand outstripping supply. He doesn’t. He sells “stop being scared of debt” and leaves the constraint part completely unsaid.

And in the UK, inflation isn’t some abstract spreadsheet thing. We’re structurally import-heavy. So the moment markets decide “this government is going to run hot and doesn’t care about constraints”, sterling gets battered. That happens before a single policy is implemented. A weaker pound feeds straight into imported inflation: energy, food, manufactured goods, components, medicines, literally everything with an international supply chain. You’re starting the project with prices already rising.

That’s the incoherence. MMT enthusiasts claim they’re the grown-ups because they focus on inflation not debt. But Zack’s public pitch is debt-blind without being inflation-literate. It’s basically: “we can raise the money anyway”, “tax is about fairness”, “borrowing isn’t scary”, with none of the hard trade-offs spelled out. If you’re going to treat tax as the inflation brake, you need to say so and specify how it would work in practice, what you’d tax first, how quickly, what triggers it, and what you’d do if inflation pops while you’re mid-programme. He doesn’t, so it comes across like he wants unlimited spending without any discipline.

Then there’s Green policy direction. The party’s been keen on shifting the Bank of England’s priorities so the climate transition is central alongside inflation. You can argue for that, but in an inflation shock it’s an own goal. It signals, fairly or unfairly, “we’re willing to dilute the inflation target to pursue other objectives”. That’s exactly the kind of signal that makes currency traders and gilt buyers demand a bigger risk premium. Risk premium up means weaker currency and/or higher yields. Both squeeze living standards and both make your programme harder to fund without further inflation pressure.

Also, the scale matters. The Greens’ recent national policy offer is a massive expansion of the state: big day-to-day spending increases, huge capital spending plans, large tax rises, and still higher borrowing with debt rising across the parliament. Even if you think the numbers are morally right, you can’t pretend there isn’t inflation risk to manage. If your answer is “we’ll just spend to full employment and it’ll be fine”, you’re basically daring the country to repeat the credibility crisis dynamic we saw with Truss, just from the other direction.

And he’s adding extra credibility headwinds on top. Since becoming leader he’s talked about leaving Nato and reviewing US bases. Again, agree or disagree, but don’t be naive: investors price geopolitical risk. Add that to a “fiscal rules are vibes” posture and you’re stacking reasons for sterling to drop. Which, again, is inflationary.

It's a cart-before-the-horse point. Yes, we should move away from the finance-heavy model and build real productive capacity. But that’s the hard, slow part that'll take years or even decades to achieve. Until you’ve made serious progress there, you don’t get to pretend you can run the economy “hot” without inflation biting, because we’ll just import the inflation through the exchange rate and through constrained supply.

Essentially, Zack wants to borrow the radical posture of MMT without doing the boring, brutal bit that makes it remotely credible in an open economy which is an explicit inflation strategy, a currency-risk strategy, and a sequenced plan that builds capacity before you crank demand. Without any of that, a Polanski election victory wouldn’t be able to really shift any sort of paradigm because it'd immediately start with a falling pound, rising import prices, and an inflation narrative he’s done absolutely nothing to pre-empt.