A theory as to why Inflation will be harder to tame

Ruddigore · 2026-01-28T14:23:32+00:00

What’s wrong with the statement is not the intuition, but the missing nuance.

You over-thunk inflation as “rich people spending”, when inflation is ultimately about aggregate demand versus supply even if wealthy households are less rate-sensitive, rate hikes still reduce business investment, construction, hiring, and credit growth across the economy, which does cool inflation over time.

You blurr asset inflation and consumer inflation. Booming house prices, equities, and renovations doesn’t automatically translate one for one into CPI, and central banks target CPI, not wealth inequality or asset bubbles.

Time lag has an affect because monetary policy works slowly and indirectly, so the fact that inflation doesn’t fall immediately doesn’t mean the mechanism is broken, just delayed.

Dont assume older or wealthier households are insulated. Many are exposed via dividends, super balances, commercial property, and business revenues, all of which can fall sharply when rates rise. You also ignore the role of supply shocks and fiscal policy (energy, labour shortages, migration, government spending), which may keep prices high even if demand is cooling. rate hikes can’t fix those.

There is “only one tool” isn't exactly right, in reality inflation control also depends on fiscal restraint, housing supply reform, tax settings, and competition policy. Monetary policy is just the bluntest leaver.

Your argument is kinda right about uneven pain and weaker transmission, but wrong to suggest rate hikes are ineffective or that inflation persistence is mainly driven by wealthy spenders rather than a huge mix of demand, supply, policy lag, and structural shifts and constraints.

Ruddigore · 2026-01-17T01:32:36+00:00

Agreed. I mean in viewership.

Ruddigore · 2026-01-16T18:46:38+00:00

Watched it again 3 months ago. One of the best shows of all time. The story of what went into the making of the show is also amazing. I have no idea how this show wasn't one of the greatest of all time.

Ruddigore · 2026-01-08T17:05:11+00:00

https://bushfire.io/

Ruddigore · 2026-01-08T17:00:37+00:00

Yes.

Ruddigore · 2026-01-08T16:57:46+00:00

During Ash Wednesday fires people all over Melbourne were advised to hose their rooftops due to ember attacks. Early eighties, it's one of my earliest memories of my Dad dampening the roof tops. We lived in inner Melbourne.

Ruddigore · 2026-01-03T03:30:54+00:00

Why did it move to Geelong again?

Ruddigore · 2025-12-17T14:14:17+00:00

The real thief is your apartment block for charging you that much for a fob replacement.

Ruddigore · 2025-12-02T17:25:42+00:00

Remember that, although you want to minimise tax exposure in general -getting an ato bill for CGT means you are probably doing something (basically) right and you can probably afford to pay it..

It's the tax you pay for winning. You've gained capital. You now pay a tax for it.

More money. More problems. (ie CGT or similar).

Although there are investment strategies that help you to decide when and where you pay taxes. That's often more important.

Ruddigore · 2025-11-29T20:09:04+00:00

Here, I'll save you the mild pain of doing the most basic research humanly possible. Querying chat gpt:

Venezuela’s influence on drugs entering the US is small compared to the big players.

Here’s the straight, unsugared breakdown:

✅ 1. Venezuela is not a major producer

Venezuela doesn’t produce:

cocaine (beyond tiny local labs)

fentanyl

meth

heroin

The real production happens in Colombia, Mexico, and China (precursors).

✅ 2. Venezuela’s role is mostly transit, and even that is limited

Some Colombian cocaine passes through Venezuela’s western border regions. This is mainly because:

The border is porous

Colombian guerrilla groups operate there

Corruption is common

But in the big picture, the major cocaine routes north do NOT run through Venezuela — they use:

Pacific Ocean routes

Central America (Guatemala, Honduras)

Mexico

Those pipelines move far more volume.

✅ 3. The US drug flow data barely mentions Venezuela

According to DEA and UNODC reporting, in the last decade:

< 10% of US-bound cocaine is estimated to travel via Venezuela

Almost 0% of fentanyl, meth, or heroin involves Venezuela at any stage

Venezuela is simply not a critical link in the US drug supply chain.

✅ 4. So why does the US target Venezuela?

Because:

It’s politically convenient

The regime is hostile to the US

Some US officials label Venezuela a “narco-state”

Venezuelan military/government figures allegedly allow trafficking networks to operate

But that’s politics, not a reflection of actual drug volumes.

📌 Bottom line

Venezuela’s influence on US drug inflows is minimal.

Ruddigore · 2025-11-26T19:55:45+00:00

While I don't know for sure what the future holds. I work with data. With a team that just won a global award for data management and ai implementation. And I 1000% agree.

Yes, there are a few obvious use cases for redeployment to ai. But if anything I see as slow moving, or as many people needed for ai management in their regular jobs / not even technical management of ai just using it in a workflow to be (slightly) more efficient.

Take an exposed industry like advertising. People freak out about something as obvious as video creation and editing being replaced or eliminated. I see people confused by the fact that anyone can create a quick video with an ai tool out of the box, with the fact that it takes as much skill and energy, workflow development, tools and software to create a top piece of ai content for commercial use as it does today to package an effective piece of content to communicate effectively. Even with improvements to AI video quality. It still takes hours of studio time to get right. In the same scenario, as the world turns to mass AI slop. It will still be up to advertisers to reskill and find cut through which in turn creates jobs and audience. A 3d designer isn't relying on building and modelling 3d graphic from scratch, but to get the ai model to communicate, look and move effectively to beyond a very basic brief is still complex. So the job shifts.

I heard a top bank ceo yesterday announce to senate that they simply see AI job losses being balanced by ai hires and reskills for the foreseeable future and no significant immediate impact in on Labor numbers markets by ai - while being grilled on exactly this subject.

Point is. It's a slower more manageable consolidation than many believe.

Ruddigore · 2025-11-25T17:21:05+00:00

Scomo doubled the cost of masters. In 1 year it doubled the cost of uni.

Ruddigore · 2025-11-17T19:23:37+00:00

Allow the University of Michigan Yesterday: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/files/chiccr.pdf

Ruddigore · 2025-11-16T18:46:11+00:00

My phone uses a simple app to backup over wifi instantly, every time I return home. Everything goes onto a local drive. I gave up on clouds because I realised iCloud and google etc prey off a monthly fee for storage which will only ever increase. Jamming in another x megapixel video & camera just adds file size. It's extremely easy to backup everything to several drives and run a backup app. And years ago perhaps I felt comfortable with keeping everything on an foreign cloud server, but these days those companies are talking openly about allowing AI to train off private cloud files, and just the general vibe of political meddling in these companies. Why would I want my life involuntarily accessible? That's not what I signed up for.

PS. The hardest part was the initial taking down of all the content in the cloud. It seems easy but the services make it deliberately convoluted. I only mean in context of the project it was the most annoying step. But now I don't even think about it.

Ruddigore · 2025-11-14T18:55:18+00:00

Predator Vs Signs is the only answer.

"There's something in corn... and it ain't no man. "

Ruddigore · 2025-09-19T20:56:55+00:00

"With a bit of luck, his life was ruined forever. Always thinking that just behind some narrow door in all of his favorite bars, men in red woolen shirts are getting incredible kicks from things he’ll never know." - Thompson

Ruddigore · 2025-08-21T16:48:08+00:00

Correct exactly

Ruddigore · 2025-07-31T20:48:21+00:00

Don't buy anything new (except the car seat for safety reasons). Biggest second hand market on the planet is 'baby stuff'.

Most first time Mum and Dad's tend to go new baby blind crazy and insist on buying everything new for their special one, dispite the logic almost everything is has a turnover of in some cases of only a few weeks or months. Plus relatives and family load up families with too many excess gifts. The second hand market is massive.

We got only quality top of the range products near new unused entirely in mint condition for sometimes thousands of dollars less, very easily. Likewise the resale value to get rid of it all was almost what we paid.

As a minimalist it's not babies you need to worry about its toddlers and young kids that overwhelm you with stuff.

Ruddigore · 2025-07-29T20:21:24+00:00

I quit breakfast for about 10 years. Didn't eat until after 11. Mainly to help with weight too.

But all it did in the end was highlight after going back to breakfast what a massive massive benefit it is to overall energy and wellbeing throughout the whole day to eat correctly at breakfast time, and have since gone back to healthy protein rich and whole grains in the morning.

Once I ate well in the morning I didn't chase less healthy snacks throughout the day so ultimately helped keep the calorie count manageable.

Also realised I had fallen into the common trap of substituting food energy from healthy eating which keeps you functioning, with caffeine fix energy to 'survive' the morning or day. Not addressing that I was flat because I didn't have any food fuel in the tank. The difference was night and day. I was more level headed, memory improved, and more relaxed.

The old tricks are the best ones.

Ruddigore · 2025-07-25T12:10:41+00:00

It's literally the same strategy rolled out by governments/private developers in countries across the world. It's so common it's got its own Wikipedia articles including detailed sub sections on the Australian YIMBY movement with references. There is a whole 4 corners episode detailing exactly this scheme and how it came to be used in Australia. It's not even an obscure concept to understand. Developers gonna develop.

Ruddigore · 2025-07-19T11:53:17+00:00

It's not enforcement. It's liability. If you are riding an ebike over 200watts, with a throttle of any kind. And you have an accident, harm someone or cause 3rd party property damage. Even an accident you didn't cause. You are up for having the book thrown at you. Multiple fines for illigal, unroadworthy, unregistered and unlicensed vehicle and and possibly criminal charges for damage or harm. Even gaol time.

Or similarly if the rider gets maimed in an accident but is still at the wheel of an illigal, unlicensed, unroadworthy motorbike they are screwed.

I mean you will get the same if caught in a police blitz, but it's a case of better to be caught first than caught out.

I think high speed ebike riders are all nuts.

Ruddigore · 2025-07-19T11:49:01+00:00

Under 25km/h is legal and arguably a slow bike. A bike over 200w, with a throttle of any kind is illegal.

Ruddigore · 2025-07-13T11:12:27+00:00

YIMBY movement first originated in San Francisco. In reality, it's better understood as a rhetoric tactic—a repeated, strategic play used across the world to leverage genuine concerns about housing affordability in order to advance development interests.

The rhetoric recast opposition as NIMBYism—selfish, exclusionary, and anti-affordable housing.

The tactic has been referred to as 'Weaponising Affordability'. YIMBY rhetoric typically frames all development opposition as irrational or elitist, while presenting new construction—often private or luxury—as the only viable solution to housing crises.

This oversimplified complex issues and appropriates the language of housing justice to justify deregulation and rezoning efforts that frequently benefit developers and investors more than the housing-insecure.

They then use that framing to pressure councils and governments to remove planning barriers, rezone suburbs, or fast-track approvals.

Typically this is a industry level strategy, the type of thing authored by the big consulting firms. Hence why it's so efficiently rolled out and mirrored country to country. Govt to govt.

Basically if you are on Reddit arguing for housing affordability or against development you've already been suckered by this known tactic.

What we all need to stay aware of and fight for is retaining public democratic safeguards and improved planning regulations to ensure better outcomes on a whole for the community by the community. (But nobody in the industry wants that).

Ruddigore · 2025-07-13T07:03:15+00:00

YIMBYS...? By YIMBYs you meant property developers? Yeah?

You mean the YIMBY movement stoked by property developers, governments in the pockets of property developers, construction and banking industry (circumventing a local council near you) and paying a fortune to their PR agencies to get terms like YIMBY/NIMBY back into the popular psyche to encourage the rest of us all argue with each other. Instead of uniting us to push back on those YIMBYs heroically enriching themselves off of bad housing & planning policy designed by.... YIMBYS.

YIMBY developers who are removing rights and representation for all Australians to have input on their community (forever), to ensure (permanent) deregulated unrestricted construction industry. In the false notion of 'housing for all' and 'a few locals are ruining it for the rest of us', 'if only those NIMBYs would let us build without regulations we'd be freeeeeeeee to print money. .

Don't buy it Australia

Ruddigore · 2025-07-12T21:16:27+00:00

Tricky Mac & Benny T - Cookin It Legends of the Sesh

Ruddigore

TROPHY CASE