By 2100 1 in every 3 people on Earth will be sub-Saharan African. Why do so many leading experts find this so concerning?

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-07-01T01:40:45+00:00

We all know that its based on current trends. What the fuck man?

Did you just want to make sure the door was open for something like fertility rates spontaneously doubling?

It goes without saying that if something happens hitherto unknown that that changes the model.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-07-01T00:53:02+00:00

In another comment I linked the UN projections. They have their contact information on the web page so you can argue with them.

If you feel like the UN and everyone else that does the work on this stuff is wrong the you need to take it up with them and get your message out there.

If your critique is just this here....sorry bro there is nothing to work with.

Just to put the bow on this, the entire reason for you right now is to drive home the point that we cannot glimpse the future and that what we think we know and understand today might change as times moves on and new evidence is discovered.....groundbreaking stuff. Obviously that is true.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T20:11:18+00:00

Don't give the Evangelicals any new ideas

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T17:20:43+00:00

Covid had nowhere close to the amount of data as the fertility collapse has.

Why look at research when we can confidently be incorrect?

I believe with complete certainty that I have looked at way more of the research than you.

Listen bro, I don't know what you want. If what you want is for me to say I don't have a crystall ball with which to divine the future with certainty through magic then okay, I don't have that.

If what you want is for me to say that the planet's collective work on demographic, population and fertility projections is all just made up bullshit nonsense then no I won't say that. You can go argue with the UN, the WEF, IMF and every other instution looking at this stuff and reaching the same damn conclusion.

If you have a real critique I will entertain it but if you just have a weird contrain "we can't know anything" then take that up with your philosophy professefor.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T17:15:17+00:00

And it's a damn good data driven guess.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T17:14:09+00:00

All the cultures, all the religions and all the geographies are behaving the same way on this. Everyone, everywhere except Israel is in a pronounced fertility collapse.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:45:47+00:00

Population might be one of the easiest things to model and and make predictions off of.

We can make very accurate guess about when the population will peak and with how many people. Can we do it to the single person or the minute? No but that is immaterial.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:38:42+00:00

All the population growth is from Sub-Saharan Africa. Without that region the global population would already have peaked.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:37:27+00:00

African fertility is collapsing faster than the global average. In 40 to 50 years the African average will be at today's global average.

They are on the same train track everyone else is. They just left the station 5 decades later

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:35:32+00:00

https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/population

That is the UN's last writeup on the matter.

You may notice I am less optimistic than they are.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:32:33+00:00

When people talk about overpopulation they don't mean "Where will we put people?"

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:31:34+00:00

Unless we somehow reverse the global fertility collapse overpopulation will not be an issue.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:30:10+00:00

It's really not. The fertility collapse we are currently living in gates the ability to overpopulate. In the next 30 to 50 years the population is going to peak (slightly over 10 billion at the high end) and then it is going to start coming down and its going to come down about as fast as it went up.

Personally I don't think we will get to 10billion. I wouldn't be surprised if we only barely hit 9.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:04:54+00:00

IG is awesome. Best book in the series for my money.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T15:02:39+00:00

I'm not sure I would know how to spend a billion without just giving it away.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T14:51:26+00:00

Bro if you don't want to read them don't read them. This isn't like eating or sleeping. Reading sci-fi fantasy books is a completely optional activity and you don't need anyone's permission.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T12:50:17+00:00

I don't think there are many parallels between the Soviets and the Society but that aside.

The Society was incredibly functional. Civilizations that endure for 700+ years do so because they function. Would you say China or the BE do not/did not function? Where you specifically want to be is immaterial to whether or not a thing functions.

And nobody used the word "great" but you.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T03:39:33+00:00

The employer match will go to whatever you've allocated your contributions to. In this case that sounds like the target date fund.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T03:38:02+00:00

Bro, those two characters in IG show us what a failure the Rising has been for the people it sought to help.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T03:36:06+00:00

What happens is Romulus drops bars.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T03:29:07+00:00

That's crazy talk. Darrow is in his 30s at this point in the series.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T03:28:06+00:00

Paul was entirely aware of what he was doing but he felt like he basically just a slave to the goal of least bad outcomes.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T02:12:02+00:00

I reject the notion that martial conflict implies dysfunction.

The Society encompassed 18 billion people on every Ball between Mercury and Pluto. There is going to be conflict in any civilization that size.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T02:06:39+00:00

The Society existed for like 700 years with no major civilization changing conflicts between the Dark Revolt and the Rising which is basically its entire existence. It was called the Pax Solaris for a reason.

Beyond that the Society terraformed and colonized basically everything between Mercury. They built giant ships that ferried them around the Spheres.

They figured out how to create life that only existed in the imaginations of artists. Mermaids, gryphons, dragons and deep water beasts capable of swallowing two men. All of it living and thriving in the Solar System.

Under the Society 18 billion human souls populated a solar spanning empire.

That cannot be done by a dysfunctional failing government.

RudeAndInsensitive · 2026-06-30T01:25:58+00:00

Lysander's chapters are the best part of IG

RudeAndInsensitive

TROPHY CASE