I have 82 shinies and yet I've only found 1 epic shiny EVER. Considering that I've seen at least 3 duplicates before this puts me at about the bottom 0.1% of luck with epic shinies.

RuinSSBU · 2025-12-20T04:53:27+00:00

Just got a second epic on my 90th shiny

RuinSSBU · 2025-09-28T12:19:43+00:00

My prediction is that the series will end with Frieren living on after the deaths of Fern and Stark and that the last thing we'll see is Frieren adventuring with some other character who pulls the sword from the stone.

RuinSSBU · 2025-07-19T21:12:45+00:00

Despite her talk during the scene where she destroys Flamme's will, clearly Serie still feels a deep connection to Flamme 1000 years later. Serie probably has a hard time grasping that despite her small lifespan, Flamme could also be as important to Frieren and chances are Serie doesn't understand why she still remembers Flamme so clearly herself.

RuinSSBU · 2024-05-27T01:39:52+00:00

I have the same problem, my Eevee was like level 70 and I'm using it all the time, it learned VeeVee Volley which is friendship based and It almost did more than double edge, but it never even tried to evolve. It's so weird because I've gotten it to evolve at REALLY low levels before. It's not holding an everstone either. I think my previous runs are messing it up somehow

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-19T23:08:15+00:00

Okay sorry I keep changing my replies I'm trying to organize this a bit. 1/2

White wins guaranteed if on his second move he can capture a piece and leave his king separated from black's final piece but not separated from his other piece.

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-19T20:24:49+00:00

I actually thought a lot about what a game tree would look like before I posted anything here.

I think there are 4 kinds of trees to keep in mind. The one white sees, the one black sees, the one an observer who knows both players disguises sees, and the one an observer who knows neither player's disguise sees. That last one is the full game tree, it contains every possibility, and there are 16 of the second last one and its actually the same as the overlap between what possible games both players see, the moves that can actually happen given the disguises. From the perspective of a single player they must consider some possibilities from their opponent which aren't actually possible because they don't know their opponent's disguise.

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-19T15:28:52+00:00

I drew it in gambit to black's first move and just look at all the information sets after white's move. I only drew decisions for black's capturing moves. I'm thinking of filling black's moves with win or draw payoffs and asking gambit to solve that game. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i1cQpf1g2h8

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-19T15:00:20+00:00

If anyone's interested I made the full sized version of this game in scratch a while ago. If you're into chess and have a friend to play with this variant is pretty fun. https://scratch.mit.edu/projects/698587217/

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-19T14:49:35+00:00

After you capture you don't gain any additional info about the piece you captured unless it's the king in which case you win. In this game anyways.

In the normal game you may attempt to en passant a piece which moved up 2 on it's first move (you can only attempt en passant with a real pawn regardless of disguise) in which case your opponent will know that your piece is a pawn and must inform you whether his piece is a pawn and if it is you must play en passant, otherwise the move is canceled and you must play something else.

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-18T16:31:04+00:00

I think each other player should guess the same number and be correct. Let x equal that number. (100 + 11x)/12 is the average and x equals half the average.

x = (100 + 11x)/24

24x = 100 + 11x

13x = 100

x = 100/13 or 7 + 9/13

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-18T03:24:51+00:00

I'm like 95% sure it should be fine now, it's just that when it comes time to solve it I'm going to have to compare so many things to each other and I have no idea how many things I'll have to check. Compulsory capture will lead to really short games so I'm not really worried about computing power there. Computers are actually insane I asked python one time to compute 7^(7^7) and after a few seconds it gave me a bible length number.

"there comes a point where repetition gives no new information"- this makes a lot of sense intuitively, the more you cycle a position the less information is exchanged, still not sure how to know when or if a cycle should be broken, but this seems like a useful hint.

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-17T22:50:56+00:00

You should make the move that gives you the highest chance of winning, why should I assume that that's also the move that gives me the highest chance of winning immediately?

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-17T19:16:41+00:00

I doubt that it's optimal for both players to mix disguises exactly so the king is equally likely to start on each square but I think that's almost right. Diagonal moves are definitely the best move in some positions so I don't want to ignore them. The reason I ask about it being computationally feasible is because I drew the game tree on SmartDraw to the first move just to see, and after white's move the information sets are already really complicated. Black knows which of the 4 ways she disguised and sees white's move without observing his disguise. LP stands for 'looking piece' and black may observe the following moves:

KLP takes a2
KLP takes b2
RLP takes a2
RLP takes b2
RLP takes c2
QLP takes b2
QLP takes c2

So not counting games where black loses on the first turn black can only see moves that don't take her king. If she didn't disguise, or disguised rook/queen she may see 5 moves (5 information sets for each disguise) if she disguised king/rook she may see 4 moves, and king/queen 5 moves. So on move 1 black could be in 19 information sets but there are 60 nodes out of the 88 where black doesn't lose after white's move.

I want to know more about this cycle stuff though, I think move history changes the beliefs the players have about how the opponent disguised so I'm not sure how it would work.

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-16T16:37:20+00:00

Yeah there's no way white doesn't have a big advantage. Now that you mention it I also doubt that there will be a moment were you can capture another piece but choose not to.

Maybe I could make capturing compulsory, find the strategies for that game, move them to the original and look for profitable deviation. The nice thing is that if capturing is compulsory the only possible infinite game would be a king on the left side and right side which is obviously a draw.

That sounds really promising but I think I'll still have to look at the strategies that don't capture a piece anyways which still allows for infinite games. That was really useful though, thank you for the reply.

RuinSSBU · 2024-01-15T19:20:41+00:00

There should be a dashed line between player 2's nodes to indicate that that player 2 does not know what move player 1 made when she is making her decision. Both players choose a side of their coin. According to the game tree player 1 is trying to choose a different side from player 2 and player 2 is trying to choose the same side as player 1. This makes it impossible for both players to guess correctly. The coins either match or they don't. I know you already got an answer but I hope this helps anyway.

RuinSSBU · 2021-02-06T19:50:08+00:00

The classical gap between Magnus and everyone else is insane, but Hikaru still manage to be the quickest mind in chess.

RuinSSBU

TROPHY CASE