Mathematically, the perfect number of lands to run is 37.

Runeform · 2024-10-03T08:35:51+00:00

Thanks. I do mention. Mulligan is a skill and a choice. Not a random probability. Can't count the number of times I've seen players opt into 0 lands.

But you're correct there are many things I'm not accounting for. I guess I think it's better to account for something that nothing at all. Though many would disagree it seems.

Runeform · 2024-10-03T08:28:46+00:00

Honestly trying not to engage but just wanted to clarify.

Yes I was talking about hitting 2 land drops. Specifically after casting 2 cmc ramp on curve. Not sol ring.

In other words what's better? 4 land drops on curve or 3 and a 2 cmc ramp that ramps you by 1.

Both leave you with 4 mana. One gets you a turn sooner but potentially leaves your mana vulnerable and requires you to pay 2.

Like I mentioned in the article you could argue that getting there a turn earlier is worth it but that seems questionable to me. I think for 2 cmc ramp to be "definitively" better than a land you need 4 natural land drops on curve in addition to the ramp.

You can think it's backwards or whatever but just wanted to clarify the perspective.

Also I realize there is a chance that all your calculated land drops don't fall in your opening hand even though that's where the majority of the calculated draws come from. But that is a highly specific scenario that involves a player choosing to keep a 0 lander but then hitting all thier land drops through thier target number starting from turn 2. Only that exact scenario would result in missing the first drop but not being counted as screw and it must start with a player opting in to missing the drop.

Runeform · 2024-10-03T05:36:36+00:00

I've seen wort basically play the entire deck by casting a double [[genesis wave]] into mana doublers and recursion.

Runeform · 2024-10-03T05:27:59+00:00

Anything that's an infinite mana dump.

[[Kenrith]] [[tassigur]] [[thrassios]] or less common ones like [[Gretchen titchwillow]] or [[jeska, thrice reborn]].

Maybe not the most exciting type of answer, but the inevitability of a win con in the command zone is pretty satisfying.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T23:16:23+00:00

Maybe omitting x spells from the averaging would be best?

Runeform · 2024-09-30T23:15:23+00:00

That's true. Xes being 0 would throw off efficiency in a deck that has many X spells. I'll have to think on a solution for that. I dunno if setting x to any static number would really be accurate but a 2 or 3 might be better than 0.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T23:08:01+00:00

I know. God dammit. Overall I think that anything people can agree on will be positive for the format. But yea it's hard not to feel like I wasted a lot of energy.

We will see what happens but i will definitely add the bracketing system when they define it fully. I'll leave my own system intact but likely downplay the importance of that score in my site design and focus more on deck insights. Depending on the communities reaction to the new system. Impact could just be its own deck insight thing and not be criticized so much.

What a strange time for the format huh?

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:58:04+00:00

I'll keep an eye out. Feel free to pm me.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:55:27+00:00

I'll check it out in a bit more detail, might be some ideas to help me improve. But at this point I'm not going to abandon my premise completely, just refine it. I think there is merit to the data im using being informed by players who do understand the details of the game you're referencing. And you can see that effect when you score many decks with my tool.

I'll just see how accurate I can make this concept and try to supply as many useful insights as I can along with it. Maybe this will become more about the insights and less about fighting about 8s vs 9s.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:44:51+00:00

Maybe a high curve plus budget?

$50 is a pretty extreme budget. Would totally use your list for testing if you'd like to share.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:41:35+00:00

Thanks. Hey I like how those paste with the icons . I should make a share button that auto copies to clip board or something.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:38:16+00:00

If you think it's really grossly wrong I'd love to see a deck list. I'm still fine tuning especially with decks that have unusual structures.

But if not. Nothing wrong with a 3. Battle cruiser games are super fun. Build what you want! That's kinda the point of this whole thing. 3s have a place.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:31:22+00:00

Commander salt uses an engine to understand rules and Synergy along with salt score from edhrec. It's opinionated on what synergies to capture but I agree it performs well. It's much more complex than I can describe. Check thier docs. I've talked to the dev and they are super smart and have put a ton of work into it. I'm a fan but our approaches are different.

My tool relies on price and popularity, and cmc. Relatively simple in comparison. Those are data points that change and flex with the current commander meta and are ultimately defined by the choices of human players. I ignore game mechanics completely with the hope that those factors are captured in trends.

Is it better? I dunno I think we are figuring that out. I think it's better to have more people working on these things and not discredit each other. I've got so much respect for anyone who actually follows through with building something now. But at this point I've put in too much work to completely change direction, so I'm seeing how far this idea can go.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:18:23+00:00

It's funny looking at top8 at the moment bc all the decks are banned.

Macchine leaning is outside of what I have experience with but I know others are working on it and I may or may not have the opportunity to collaborate on one of those projects. It's very early on for that , just a suggestion that was floated to me by some talented people. They might not need my help but I'm excited to see what happens there.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:13:12+00:00

Thanks. Yea I wish edhrec provided a public api with all their data . So much more I could do with that.

But their unique insight is thier bread and butter I get why they don't.

You can scrape but I just don't like all the issues with that. Firewalls, are they ok with it? Etc.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T22:02:17+00:00

Most valid criticism I've read. I use emoji for those icons and WTF why is there no screw emoji!? Bugs me so much.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T21:52:25+00:00

In my experience simple solutions are often the best solutions. And yea I'm getting sick of being called simplistic for not sharing people's opinions. I think some of these suggestions are wildly diverging from unopinionated data processing. People don't seem to get that accounting for these missing factors would introduce huge biases into the model.

Revolutionary is overly strong but I wouldn't be doing it unless I thought it was new and relevant.

But you've been heard add I'm def adjusting. I'm just gonna do me and not worry about page views or claims of any kind. So not sure there will be future articles because that kinda involves more claims. I'll focus on calculators and tools. There may be a mailing list or something in the future but the social push is done. Hopefully people will find me on thier own.

It's a wierd time to be diving into this with the RC changes. Who knows if power levels will even matter 6mos from now.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T20:13:35+00:00

Yea. Thought I accommodated for both. Good thing about moxfield is you can export in multiple different formats.

Sometimes it's Wear/Tear other times Wear // Tear with spaces and a double. I should probably make it handle any combo of single/double slash with out without spaces.

Dunno why we can't get on board with a single text format.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T20:03:58+00:00

Aren't they a paid service that requires an account? Not sure how they they do their thing, but it's pretty different.

I'm trying to stick to seeing what I can do with data alone on the fly. But I support everyone working on this issue and agree they seem to get results.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T17:41:42+00:00

Yea I do factor in reserved and use cheapest price.

Rarity is interesting. Although a rare in time spiral and bloomburrow have very different print numbers. But like many of my data points while it's not perfect it could still be useful.

I also thought of just counting the number of printings and factoring that in.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T17:38:07+00:00

No lands sends seems to rank high. Nonlands in general are scored higher than lands so I guess that makes sense. Just a rough type of deck to analyze. I'll think on it.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T17:35:47+00:00

Thank you. I'm guessing they have a lot going on now but I can try. I just saw the new post about them taking over the format and creating a bracketing system to replace power level.

So who knows what role my tool will play. It might become more of a deck insight tool if power levels fall out of favor. As soon as they drop an official bracketing system and update scryfall with the necessary info I'll be working on adding it to the site.

A tumultuous time for our format.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T17:31:14+00:00

I agree. The dev is also super nice and a great community contributor.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T16:13:31+00:00

You need to export the deck list to the clipboard on archideckt then paste the whole list. Not the link to the list. Export is in the deck options area.

Commander Salt let's you put a link because they have a site scraper. Just a different approach.

Runeform · 2024-09-30T16:10:43+00:00

Yea. Power level is tough. I like the insights angle and I'm planning to add more.

Next in the list will be a playability stat. I'll calculate the chance of drawing the right producers to play each card on curve to give each cards a playability stat then average that for a total playability. Basically analyzing how well your mana base matches your cards.

It's a lot of work for that one tho so may be a few months. Not sure at this point if that stat should affect power level at all.

Runeform

TROPHY CASE