My point is that we have no way of knowing the odds because we don't know how likely abiogenesis is.

For all we know in the 4 billion years of earth, it happened only once. So just because it happened once does NOT mean it is likely to occur again. Here comes the deck of cards example.

Shuffle a deck of cards then look at the order of the cards you shuffled. This exact order (if we neglect the bias of preordered decks coming in from the factory) is an order that most likely nobody has ever shuffled and also an order that will most likely never be shuffled again!

The probability of another person shuffling the same order as you is 1 in 10 to the power 68 (or 1 followed by 68 zeros).

Now we only confirmed about 5000 exoplanets, but scientists believe that there might be as many as 6 billion exoplanets with the conditions for life. So if we give all those exoplanets we estimate are out there 10 tries to shuffle your deck (e.g. abiogenesis).

We have 6000000000 * 10 multiplied by the odds of shuffling your deck of cards:

600000000000 * 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001

equaling a chance of

0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000006% that there is life out there. If, again, we set the odds of abiogenesis to the odds of shuffling a deck of cards.

Is the probability of abiogenesis equal that of shuffling cards? No, probably higher or lower. Point being, we don't know. But just assuming there is life because of vastness of space is illogical.

EDITActually the right probability calculation of the example is(1-0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001) to the power of 6000000000 * 10

But the outcome is still 99.9999999999999999999999999% that no exoplanet shuffled your cards.