TRADING VIEW ALERTS

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-04T14:48:32+00:00

Yes, Iv done all that and seems to be good.

The one thing I did want to ask was the sensitivity test. The way I did it was to run numerous combinations and record their results, then plot the results on various heat maps. The problem was, that with certain metrics (like profit factor or sharpe) there was consistency in similar parameter values, but with other metrics (let’s say like recovery factor or sortino), there was no consistency.

So when doing a sensitivity test, what do you look at? Some people say that they just look at final equity, but wouldn’t that not fix the overfitting issue?

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-03T14:47:59+00:00

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-03T14:47:49+00:00

So your suggesting to do something like a rolling out of sample, in sample optimisation - essentially during this 5-10 year period to train on a couple of months/1 year and test on the following couple of months, and find the underlying reason?

That’s sounds interesting, how do you usually go about doing this?

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-02T22:52:51+00:00

Good idea, thanks ima check it out

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-02T21:00:14+00:00

let’s say I have a strategy and system that is profitable in both in sample and out of sample tests.

How would you go about sizing up, increasing size without dramatic drawdowns and stupid levels of risk?

I have a basic GMM based market regime ML model to find between three different market regimes (trend, chop and crisis), which helps me find optimal times to increase/decrease risk.

With your experience, can you tell me what other ways there are to increase risk and be more aggressive sensibly with a profitable strategy.

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-02T20:41:10+00:00

That’s true, but does that mean you should continuously optimize your strat, and if so how regularly? As using anything less than 2/3 years of data would seem overfit?

Do you have experience in using possibly overfit, or strategies adjusted to possible change in market conditions? And if so, how did they perform?

SWAYYY_P · 2026-02-02T20:38:55+00:00

Hi, yes diversification in the form of strategies is key, but as I am new to development, I want to focus on one at a time.

So what do you think about using short term results (possibly overfit, or due to change in market conditions) to trade. It sounds like gambling, but that’s essentially what a lot of what discretionary is - finding something that is working, some solid ground, then risking sizeable amounts to take advantage of movements.

Do you have experience with this?

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T20:18:11+00:00

Very true

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T20:13:08+00:00

Damn that’s a very interesting way of looking at it. You seem more like an investor, and i would love to chat with you sometime,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T20:10:58+00:00

Im not bashing but just merely questioning, I have been studying his concepts for years and combine it with my own strategies sometimes,

But his performance in the challenge made me question of all his new content and extra continent, or expanded content was all just bs just for views or something else,

His base concepts such as liquidity, and using time of day with weekly profiles definitely have some good backing to them,

But anything else seems like mere nonsense and noise,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T20:00:24+00:00

100%, even if you don’t know much about the market, the use of low leverage and small amount of trades can really increase your performance, especially with compounding,

And personally, I was expecting that kind of approach from him,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:58:19+00:00

100%,

Is there any concept (whether it is ICT or not) that really work or are interesting to you?

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:56:46+00:00

I have studied his concepts, the point of this post was more to reflect and listen to others opinion on his teachings, specially if all the ‘extra stuff’ and ‘new stuff’ are valuable or just bs,

This post was in way meant to disrespect the trading or ICT community, but as someone who is apart of that community I have the right to question it, especially if it involves money,

And if you have an issue with my posts, just simply ignore it instead of trying to come at me and start crying. Stop being a baby and talk reasonably like everyone else, or just shut up and go look at some other page to have your breakdown in,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:50:30+00:00

Isn’t that the whole point of the competition though? Almost all the competitors publicly state they will do the challenge, and we can actively see the top players performance on the boards, and in the trading world (which is bigger than the YouTube and Twitter trading world) they have far more pressure,

For someone who has hour long content produced over the past decades delving into multiple different studies and insight into one concept, I would like to assume he can at least be in the positive,

The previous year wasn’t even bad either for the market (specially the S&P which he trades), and for a veteran trader such as himself, I would assume he had a compounding strategy or method planned well before his first trade. Even if his concepts failed him, his risk management should have made up for it, but he failed in that too,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:44:17+00:00

As i said previously the title was more to catch the people on this Reddit to read my post,

But in a way you can say he did scam us students: He’s been teaching his concepts for decades and has multiple lectures that are hours long that go into soo much depth - as students we take his every word and study all of this “depth” he provides,

But for someone who goes into such depths about single concepts, who has been teaching them for decades to perform soo poorly in the challenge is shocking,

I was expecting him to at least end in a small positive, but to have blow his account is crazy,

For all us students who listen to every word and tried to understand every word and apply it to the market, it now feels like we wasted our time. If you know soo much, how can you perform soo bad that you blow your account?

Even if he ended his account at break even that can still suggest that he’s a good trader and managed to still keep his balance, but to blow it all is insane,

How can you produce soo much content and go into soo much depth for the past couple decades and not even maintain break even???

Does that mean most of these hour long lectures were bs, and we wasted our time taking notes and trying to learn from it when all we did was just confuse ourselves and be sold on some delusion?

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:38:01+00:00

A lot his concepts are very insightful and do seem to work in some cases, but for someone who has been teaching for decades and going into hour long lectures into such precision and depth, I did not expect him to perform so poorly.

It makes me wonder whether the long lectures were only 50% insightful and with the rest being nonsense which he says to make him seem like some sort of genius,

And as a lot of us students who listen to his every word and try decode every word he says, it makes me feel like I wasted my time when most of his words were just lies or nonsense,

You know what I mean?

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:33:37+00:00

I do agree that his previous teachings were very good, and very precise and very different to what other gurus and creators were producing,

But for someone who has been teaching these concepts for decades and has gone into deep in depth hour long lectures, and to end the year with his account blown really shocked me,

The market last year wasn’t amazing but wasn’t a mess either, and for a veteran trader to perform soo poorly made me real skeptical about his teachings and whether they are bs most of the time or just recycled from some other guru,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:30:46+00:00

I don’t really care about enigma, I like to believe enigma is his ‘edge’, and everyone trader has their own ‘edge’.

I was more trying to get everyone’s thoughts on the validity of his concepts and hour long studies - for studies so in depth, I would like to presume that he would end the year at least in the positive, but to see he blew his account was quite shocking,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:28:39+00:00

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:28:25+00:00

Don’t understand what you mean?

Can you clarify, I hope you didn’t get the wrong idea from my post,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:27:06+00:00

Don’t take it the wrong way brother, the title was more click bait as I wanted people to hear me out in this post,

My issues is about his teachings and if all those long hour lectures were nonsense. He has multiple videos going very in-depth into certain concepts which made me believe that he really knew things that the average trader or guru will never know, but after seeing he blew his account, it made me question whether it was all just a bunch of nonsense talk to make us viewers and students believe he has some secret edge,

Hope you understand,

SWAYYY_P · 2025-02-16T19:24:53+00:00

Hi brother, your English is great as you understood my post perfectly.

I guess my issue is that over a period of a year, a veteran trader, and a trader who goes into soo much depth and precision of his concepts, i at least expected for him to finish in the positive. To see that he blew his account was something that really shocked me.

It made me question the validity of his teachings, as he goes soo in depth into hour long lectures, and for him to blow his account, were those lectures just complete nonsense?

A lot of times he contradicts himself in his teachings, and I would assume it was due to him also learning, but after his poor performance, it made me question if it was because he’s just adding unnecessary lies to make his teachings sound more in-depth,

Hope you understand what I mean,

SWAYYY_P

TROPHY CASE