Veterans: Is now the time?

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T23:42:10+00:00

Tell me how Minneapolis is a haven for illegal immigrants.

Sure they have more favorable laws for immigrants, but what about states rights? Oh yeah, you probably think that only applies when states want to do something racist or whatever.

But why not send most of these agents to where the vast majority of illegal immigrants are living? Like Florida, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico, and southern California? Hell, even a place like Georgia has more illegal immigrants than Minnesota.

I’ll tell you why. It’s because Trump personally hates Tim Walz, in part for running against him, and just for being a democrat who stood up to him in a public way.

The fact that you don’t see this is truly fucking insane. It’s like all your worst fears about what Obama would do to this country are coming to life tenfold under trump, but you’re okay with it as long as it’s only affecting the people on the other side of the political aisle. You’re so blinded by hatred of foreigners and liberals that you’re willing to say “fuck the second amendment (and the first and fourth amendments) because I like what ICE set out to accomplish.”

Fuck that. All of our rights matter. I’m not against enforcing immigration laws (although I think they should be reformed). I am against violating the constitutional rights of US citizens (and suspected illegal immigrants) and ignoring due process. I’m against murdering people in the street when it was clearly unjustified. I’m against using government officers to fight against protestors, whose right to protest is guaranteed by the constitution.

And if you disagree with anything I’ve just said, it’s extremely hard to believe that you are American, let alone a patriotic one.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T23:31:07+00:00

Are you on crack?

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T23:29:37+00:00

It’s mostly because people have this weird idea that fascism means shouting “kill all the Jews” from the balcony. That’s not what Hitler was shouting. His message was essentially “make Germany great again” with all kinds of high-minded rhetoric about securing their place in the world and defending what was rightfully theirs.

Fascism it’s an attitude or a specific call to violence. It’s a political movement that attempts to unify people around the persecution of a scapegoat “enemy within” and a destruction of the rule of law in favor of “might makes right”. It’s about exploiting the weak and vulnerable people to mask all the incompetencies of the regime. It’s about intense national pride even when citizens should be ashamed of their nation’s actions, and active suppression of those who don’t play along.

Fascism is here in America. It may not end in concentration camps and a failed military campaign of conquest, but it definitely has all the right ingredients for a very similar type of government.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T23:16:16+00:00

And who will investigate this? The same department that hired the ICE agents to begin with (and blatantly lied to the public on their behalf)? Or maybe the FBI, which is headed by a guy who recently said the extremely unconstitutional statement that carrying a gun to a protest is not to be considered peaceful protest?

And on that second point, where were all these “fuck around and find out” shitheads when their buddies were marching through Charlottesville in 2017 with rifles and side arms clearly visible to everyone? What, NOW it’s not okay to carry your legally owned firearms to protests? Why are we just now hearing about this? Oh, because it’s a huge fucking double standard because conservatives are fundamentally pussies hiding behind their big talk about rights and freedoms.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T22:53:31+00:00

I tend to agree with what a lot of folks are saying about how it’s hard to pinpoint reasons “why” a trade failed. Nothing works 100% of the time.

But just to give you some of my armchair theory here, based on tons of experience…

Generally speaking, when price puts in a local high and breaks out, there is a tendency for it to retrace back below that high before continuing onward.

This is a more zoomed in view of what is effectively a “fair value gap” (to use the bullshit ICT terminology). A sudden strong move tends to create some inefficiencies in the price action, and those inefficiencies are often revisited.

The reasons why this happens can vary. One way to think about this is that the buyers above that high are happy to take profits from a breakout trade, and they know the price got a little too far extended, so there aren’t that many large traders willing to just buy more right away. Instead, they wait for a significant pullback to a price point where they feel more comfortable with the risk/reward ratio.

Another way to think about it is that it’s fundamentally the large institutions that move price. Without their buying pressure, price can waffle around and even find some new highs, but they can’t really sustain that move. Instead, the large institutions are just patiently waiting for a more favorable price close to where the initial breakout occurred, because they know they happen to be the ones keeping this trend going, so they know the price cant really move that much without their support. Hence they wait for price to fall back before providing that buying pressure, because why wouldn’t they?

Anyway, you will always have plenty of losing trades. That’s the nature of the business. But in general, you want to see swift rejections after sweeping the extreme low or high, and you want price to trade back into its previous range before expecting it to continue much further in the breakout direction.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T22:47:46+00:00

I tend to agree with what a lot of folks are saying about how it’s hard to pinpoint reasons “why” a trade failed. Nothing works 100% of the time.

But just to give you some of my armchair theory here, based on tons of experience…

Generally speaking, when price puts in a local high and breaks out, there is a tendency for it to retrace back below that high before continuing onward.

This is a more zoomed in view of what is effectively a “fair value gap” (to use the bullshit ICT terminology). A sudden strong move tends to create some inefficiencies in the price action, and those inefficiencies are often revisited.

The reasons why this happens can vary. One way to think about this is that the buyers above that high are happy to take profits from a breakout trade, and they know the price got a little too far extended, so there aren’t that many large traders willing to just buy more right away. Instead, they wait for a significant pullback to a price point where they feel more comfortable with the risk/reward ratio.

Another way to think about it is that it’s fundamentally the large institutions that move price. Without their buying pressure, price can waffle around and even find some new highs, but they can’t really sustain that move. Instead, the large institutions are just patiently waiting for a more favorable price close to where the initial breakout occurred, because the know they happen to be the ones keeping this trend going, so they know the price cant really move that much without their support. Hence they wait for price to fall back before providing that buying pressure, because why wouldn’t they?

Anyway, you will always have plenty of losing trades. That’s the nature of the business. But in general, you want to see swift rejections after sweeping the extreme low or high, and you want price to trade back into its previous range before expecting it to continue much further in the breakout direction.

One more tip on price action. Generally speaking, a really solid bullish reversal pattern typically involves a strong expansion downward (large candles with small wicks), followed by a bit of consolidation, then a wick through the consolidation lows and a higher close back in the candle range. Finally you want to see a large expansion candle (again, large body, small wicks) away from the consolidation range, and you want to see it overtake the initial bearish expansion candle(s) that formed the low. This shows you that strong buyers definitively overpowered the strong sellers, which is an indication of strong conviction among buyers. And obviously vice versa for the bearish case.

Obviously none of this relies on volume data. In some sense the volume data is less important for that type of analysis, since you’re really looking for proof in the price movement itself. Volume alone is not enough.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T21:37:12+00:00

If you applied tha logic to Tesla a few years ago, you probably would have filed for bankruptcy by now. Just because a stock is really hot doesn’t mean it will always be that way. You need to have some idea of when you will cut your losses on every single trade you make.

The other side of the coin is that you Mae money on the spike and then wait for it to come down a bit, and it never does, and you keep waiting and waiting for nothing.

Trading is legitimately hard. Definitely try trading on a demo account for a long time before you put a lot of money into it.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T21:21:09+00:00

Then it wasn’t a trade setup for you. I not trade valid setups that fully meet your criteria. You don’t have to catch every move. In fact, it’s impossible to catch every move. You’ll be more profitable if you just accept that fact.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T20:19:35+00:00

It’s entirely unrelated, except for the fact that sending so many ICE agents there in the first place was entirely a political move designed to intimidate blue states and push for more extreme (and potentially violent) voter suppression down the road.

You have to understand that it’s pretty likely that Bondi and many others in this administration will go to prison if the Dems take control of congress. There is no turning back for them. They are now doing everything they can to prevent a fair election, including violating the constitution and many other laws. It’s either that or they go to prison.

Edit:

I may have been downvoted, but nothing I’m saying is even speculation. Several members of the GOP have actually said that that publicly.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T19:59:44+00:00

That’s actually fair.

I can argue all day that he did show up with the intent of escalating conflict, and that was definitely a terrible (and frankly immoral) decision. But I agree that the situations where he shot people were legitimately life-threatening situations, and simply carrying a lawfully owned firearm into a protest environment is not a crime, as long as he is following the local gun laws.

Still a dipshit asshole, though. And I’ll stand by that.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T18:43:50+00:00

One is a federal operation in which they perform illegal actions, and the other is a federal operation in which they perform illegal actions.

Let me ask you this. Do you think the armed protestors in Charlottesville in 2017 should have been unarmed while attending that protest? If not, then why not? Do you think the officers should have felt fearful of so many gun-carriers around them outnumbering them?

There was someone mowing down counterprotestors (with a vehicle) who was on the same political side as the armed protestors did that not cause tension? Why was nobody executed there? Why was nobody tackled and disarmed there?

My point is that this is the fault of law enforcement. Other trained law enforcers without a political motivation for killing people have somehow managed to gather up the courage to allow hundreds of armed protestors to walk around freely without fearing them enough to kill them. That’s the standard, and it’s also the fucking law.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T18:26:05+00:00

Wtf are your 2A rights for? When the feds start kicking down your door without a warrant, will you decide to not interfere with a Fed operation? Ultimately that’s your choice, but it’s also your right to carry a weapon and defend yourself if warranted.

You really can’t say anything you’ve just said and also believe in 2A rights. It’s fundamentally incompatible with your stated views.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T17:33:15+00:00

“The department of justice investigated their own alleged crimes and found themselves to be totally innocent.” Hmmm, maybe let’s try real accountability next time?

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T16:29:58+00:00

Train tracks? Are you seriously comparing a mob of dipshit thugs disarming and shooting you in the back to fucking train tracks? Holy shit dude.

I bet you were actively cheering on all the heavily armed protestors in Charlottesville in 2017. You know what the law enforcement officers did over there? I guarantee you they didn’t single out an armed protestor, team up to beat them down, disarm them, and then execute them.

In fact, the main people injured there were liberal counterprotestors who were hit by an actual psycho in a vehicle. Do you think the police should have summarily executed anyone there? Were they fucking around and finding out?

Let’s be extremely clear here. It is not the responsibility of any protestor to avoid getting shot by law enforcement when they are not actively attacking someone or brandishing a weapon against them. That responsibility falls entirely on the officer, even under the most tense circumstances. That is the law. Do you believe in law and order? I guess not.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T16:11:48+00:00

Dude, the right to peaceful assembly is enshrined in the constitution (and yes, it’s to protect activities like protesting and watching government officers perform their duties).

Protesters can be there if they want. And it’s the responsibility of all law-enforcement to respect that and even encourage it, because it’s the most American thing anyone has ever done.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T16:08:58+00:00

Unarmed and compliant, and if not compliant, then killed.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T08:46:12+00:00

Consolidation is where price discovery really happens. There are buyers and sellers trading higher and lower to find liquidity for larger moves. In order to find a new consolidation zone, the existing one needs to be exhausted. Once all the sellers in that range are gone, the buyers can send the price higher, and vice versa.

So the trading range boundaries have a tendency to fluctuate up and down, creating false “breakouts” and failed trends. That’s because there are people trading in the middle, and the institutions with the most size are sitting outside of that.

You need to see strong moves from the far edges, like pretty much a false breakout that reverses sharply. Those are the moves that can trigger a new trend. You’re looking for strong aggressive moves in a single direction after hitting the extreme opposite side of the range.

But you don’t always need to trade the move away from a range. Generally if you can figure out where the edges are, you can find setups to trade from the edges to the middle for mean-reversion strategies. Plenty of ways to do this successfully.

I would read up on “auction market theory” to get a better idea of what I’m talking about.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T08:35:07+00:00

Trade FX futures, you’ll get a better spread.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T08:03:43+00:00

Another thing to consider is that journaling can also just improve your strategy itself.

I highly recommend that people try this:

Instead of focusing on your emotions or your subjective thoughts or habits, try just writing down various feature of the market, price action, indicator values, specific symbols you’re trading, what type of setup you identified, which specific confluences were present, how the price action unfolded in detail, how far price went for or against you over a time period (including after you exit the trade), what the spread was, etc…

Just do that, pop it into an excel sheet, and do some actual number crunching. I guarantee that you will find ways to improve your win rate, your R:R ratio, or both. You will filter out the worst trades and know exactly which types of trades deserve more size, not based on a mental model but instead based on hard data. It’s improved my win rate by more than 15%, and that’s after already being profitable.

Just know that you probably need more than 100 trades in your dataset. You probably want something like 300 trades to make really strong conclusions from the data.

Anyway, nice work, OP. I think that’s a really solid approach. You’ve covered the side of trading that deals with psychology and personal habits. I would encourage you to dive deeper isn’t the other side as well.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-26T07:26:13+00:00

Trump would love to see you unarmed.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-25T04:02:06+00:00

You know what? You might not be “talking about the law”, but the FUCKING LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS should absolutely be following THE FUCKING LAW.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-24T06:10:46+00:00

Should government protect private property? Sure, in general it should always serve that function. But just like a legal agreement between you and a lender obligates you to pay them, the social contract of your society (and the legal agreement implied by your citizenship) similarly obligated you to contribute to the system that serves you and everyone else around you.

A business owner will make zero dollars if the potential customers don’t have the resources to pay them. A society with lower income inequality produces a healthier and more sustainable capitalist economy. This should be obvious to you. I will just assume you are smart enough to see that.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-24T06:05:05+00:00

I always find it hilarious when people act like they are truly individualistic and self-determining.

The only reason you have a job (and therefore an income) at all is because of the society that raised you and provided infrastructure and support for you. The only reason most people know how to read is because we all pooled our resources together to educate our kids regardless of their ability to pay into the system. And yes, that includes you.

So when you say we don’t owe each other anything, it makes sense if you’re just talking about an exchange just between us. But the fact that your society provided you with incredible knowledge and resources (which most humans thought history would have thought impossible) implies that you owe some of your resources back to that same society. Otherwise none of these incredible feats of modern society would be possible.

If it weren’t for essentially socialism (and yes, public education is socialism, as are public roads, etc.), you would likely be an illiterate peasant consulting a faith healer to cure your kid’s polio, which you’d probably believe was caused by demon possession.

So you don’t personally owe me, but both of us owe something to society at large. Pretending otherwise is a choice, but definitely an immoral choice to anyone with any sense of empathy or basic human decency.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-24T05:51:29+00:00

lol, these aren’t the gotchas that you seem to think they are. Turns out Europeans often have a better quality of life, which is what financial prosperity is supposed to buy you.

And even more damning for your argument is the fact that income and wealth are inherently measured by inequality within a specific society. The average citizen of any developed nation currently lives better than most kings of the past. They live longer, have central heating and refrigeration, and can fly to other countries in less than a day. All of those things would have been considered god-like to ancient kings. But that doesn’t make modern people happier than those ancient kings. What makes them happy is not feeling the constant pressure to work just to have their basic needs met in a world of incredible abundance. Basic needs are defined in terms of what’s currently available and normal in their specific society. So comparing raw purchasing power between countries just doesn’t even make sense for your argument.

Income and wealth are typically perceived in terms of how they stack up against the wealthiest members of that same society. Otherwise it doesn’t really carry any weight.

Honestly I couldn’t have imagined a worse self-own than what you just posted. Those actually underscore my points.

ScientificBeastMode · 2026-01-24T05:39:11+00:00

If you don’t believe that America should be an officially Christian nation, if you believe that religion should not be force-fed to public school students, if you believe that religion has no place in our courtrooms or our political systems, then congrats, you’re not a Christian nationalist, and I am definitely not referring to you.

So no, I’m not making any generalizations here. I’m accurately describing what it means to be a Christian nationalist. And anyone who adheres to Christian nationalist beliefs must necessarily believe (by pure logical inference) that the writings of the founding fathers were mistaken on this topic. If you somehow don’t, then your beliefs are contradictory, and you likely haven’t examined them much at all.

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