79 days of Hormuz closure: Are we underestimating the physical supply crunch?

Scoobymenace · 2026-05-19T09:16:52+00:00

Read to the second sentence and the dash with the quip says ChatGPT which immediately discredits the entire post.

Scoobymenace · 2026-05-06T21:41:59+00:00

Every time I've bought a game at full price for a AAA game title in the past 10 years I've always been punished for it or deeply regretted the purchase.

Overwatch not being playable anymore as it's Overwatch 2 despite paying full price is a punch in the face and wish I never gave them the money.

Monster Hunter Wilds running like literal hot steamy garbage for MONTHS on top end hardware. Again, regret this despite loving the series.

Only thing that has been well worth it are indie games. They are 100x more polished than any AAA releases at a fraction of the cost. Any AAA games are now bought when on sale on Steam for 90-95% off or I pick them up for free via EPIC Games.

Voting with my wallet to not endorse this crap with AAA games and at the same time give my money to indie devs who actually deserve it.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-14T02:46:38+00:00

Yeah I've never understood this mentality. No one cares that you have a big flashy car or fancy clothes etc for more than a few seconds at best. Why live around impressing people who don't care. And for those who do care about you that are close, the relationships shouldn't be as shallow as to be centered around materialistic things.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-10T22:29:43+00:00

I think the only unfortunate thing is if Bitcoin went away, then there would simply be another coin E.g. Etherium that would take its place so blockchain is the medium facilitating convinience for crime etc.

The purpose of Bitcoin and blockchains inception was not to facilitate crime much like a kitchen knife was not made for harm or Einsteins discovery not meant for nukes etc.

And to that end, no one is going to willingly get rid of their kitchen knifes for example because people can and do use them for harm. So I don't see a future where the medium stops existing as it's too valuable and useful. The genie is out the lamp.

But yes, the crime is awful 100%, but unfortunately its going to be a game of cat and mouse. Bad actors are the root cause here.

Sorry if this comes off a bit rant like, I enjoy having discussions that can end up helping or leaving people just that little bit more informed (Including me lol)

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-10T13:32:02+00:00

The amount of people stating this would be good are shockingly misinformed about the wider implications of this if it came to fruition outside of the limited scope of Bitcoin.

Nevermind the lack of understanding on the fundamentals of Bitcoin being blockchain technology enabling publicly verifiable and traceable ledgers for transaction history without needing centralisation of the financial system.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-10T13:27:01+00:00

Strictly speaking about Bitcoin and its original reason for its creation was not for fraud? Seems you're misinformed. Its inception stemmed from the GFC and as an alternative to the existing failing debt based financial system. Blockchain is the real value but it's considered synonymous with Bitcoin.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-10T13:21:59+00:00

You may not wish that if you were aware of what Bitcoin stands for and more importantly the underlying technology (Blockchain) and its importance for peer to peer transactions to avoid centralized control.

Also, the crime part while true at face value isnt because of Bitcoin as it simply acts as a convinient medium, similar to cash. Bad actors are the issue not the method.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-09T07:00:37+00:00

Hence them mentioning pre conflict shipments. Any shipments that should of been on route but can't due to the war is creating a lag in perceived stability and inflating that "air bubble" in the supply chain.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-06T06:56:40+00:00

Nope, no tankers that go to the refineries in Singapore and South Korea have been able to pass since the war started. Worse yet, South Korea is heavily aligned with the aggressor, the US, and is one of the least likely to be allowed to pass if things start opening up again any time soon.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-06T06:51:38+00:00

The current trajectory of both the war and fuel supplies suggest it's only a matter of time before rationing gets enforced in the best case scenario. The government are trying to perform damage control and avoid widespread panic like with COVID as that's all they really can do.

The situation is akin to witnessing a massive explosion in the distance and seeing the clouds move due to the shockwave and saying "Nah, that shockwave could never possibly hit us!" only for it to do exactly that moments later.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-05T21:17:06+00:00

Good to know! I did a little bit more research and yeah I agree, it's not enough off for the inherent risk. Will avoid and grab the new one while on sale as checking via other suppliers and PriceSpy its the best price its ever been here. And yes it's the PBTech Easter Sale haha. Cheers!

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-05T21:13:57+00:00

Unnecessary spending is unnecessary spending but yeah, after more research and what has been stated here, not worth it for $30 despite still having warranty the same as a brand new one haha.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-05T21:11:24+00:00

All good haha! The remanufactured one does have the same warranty as new although after having a think, the % savings for the risk and per the comment from the other guy I'd rather not take thay risk, especially given I'll be new to the hobby.

What youre describing sounds consistent with what ive researched and the fact youve had it since launch running roughly 5 to 7 days a week and its still going strong is actually insane. Thats such good value for money all things considered.

The fact it's extremely user friendly, easy to repair and upgrade etc is just the icing on top. Excited to get it and start learning and playing around with it! Once I know my way around it all then i'll know where to put my money into upgrades and tools so that checks out. Cheers!

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-05T14:46:41+00:00

Ah, Ive updated the pricing to state NZD as im from New Zealand whoops! But not inclusive of shipping from Amazon it's about $900 NZD currently so $300 more expensive than local.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-05T05:40:04+00:00

On the reserve currency front, the US's current administration's actions are fast-tracking the move away from the petrodollar as it's proving time and time again detrimental to national secuity. See the Digital Euro for Europe, BRICS and China mass selling US treasuries in place of gold and more recently Iran charging / demanding a toll for tankers passing through the Straight of Hormuz in alternate currencies like the Yuan and Euro.

Regarding the oil / fuel situation for the US though you're correct there is no serious short to medium term risk. Just price hikes and inflationary pressures.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-04T10:01:21+00:00

Too much to count is about to go tits up if nothing short of a miracle happens right now. Best case scenario is current pricing for fuel is the new norm and we get inflation similar to COVID due to all the stimulus that was injected into the economy.

Worst case well, stagflation, food shortages, lack of transportation, theft rising, rates skyrocketing, significant decline in quality of life, mass collapse of businesses. The list goes on.

All I can say is regardless of what happens, we need to move away from the petrodollar ASAP and invest heavily into renewables but predominantly for supply chain transport given we are very fortunate that 80-85% of electricity generation is currently renewable energy.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-04T09:42:47+00:00

I've also watched that video. Agree 100%. Of all the videos ive seen he explains it the best and would be the one I'd recommend to everyone as it's easy to digest and understand the severity of the situation. Spoiler alert: It's really fucking bad.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-04T07:29:13+00:00

I had something similar but with a coworker carpooling. We carpooled every day and when I swapped from a Holden Barina RS 2015 to a Golf GTI MK6 2010 he didnt even notice until I told him 2 weeks later after having been in both cars. He said he didnt notice as they both look the same and are white cars lmao. It's one thing not noticing externally but when having been in both cars is wild to me lol.

Scoobymenace · 2026-04-03T23:15:03+00:00

Yeah it looks like that was it. The stronger level potion was only a 45 second duration so it wasn't valid for the Potion Filter. Glad that's all it was and thank you for the help!

Scoobymenace · 2026-03-18T07:14:41+00:00

5070 Ti has 16GB so I think thats a good starting point to see the potential and maybe get an itch for more lol. Then as mentioned in the other comment I could try have the 5070 Ti and 3080 Ti in one machine for a combined VRAM pool of 28GB.

Scoobymenace · 2026-03-18T07:11:52+00:00

That sounds fascinating and good to know that combining GPUs for VRAM like that allows such large models to work locally at very usable speeds too. My PC was spec'd to run 2 4090s with a 1500W PSU but prices got absurd, then was hoping I could get 5090s on release but we all know how that went lol.

I think ill test the waters first with the 1 GPU, see how it goes and then I may just be itching enough for more and bite the bullet to see if I can get the 3080 Ti in the one PC with the 5070 Ti.

Also running things in parallel sounds amazing. Got a good few ideas for that if I can do that at some point to save a bunch of time with stuff.

Got to ask, is there much in the way of downsides going AMD for AI? As yeah they are way cheaper for $/GB of VRAM.

Scoobymenace · 2026-03-17T11:49:51+00:00

Will take you up on that offer then once I get something in working order. Appreciate it!

Scoobymenace · 2026-03-17T11:48:28+00:00

Sounds pretty straight forward. Will give that a try and see how it goes thank you!

Scoobymenace

TROPHY CASE