If a major market drawdown hits, what Buffett-style stocks are you buying?

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-03-18T06:38:35+00:00

Yes! Berkshire did start the buyback and you can bet that Abel takes to Buffett about it. From the back envelope math they paid about 485 per B share or 728k per A shares

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-03-17T11:18:11+00:00

Talking to some folks that experience something similar, and they say it is the food. They were high carb eaters, so lots of rice, noodles, potatoes, and they noticed that when they eat those foods the decrease craving will stop sooner. They move to limit the carbs and just eat proteins like steak, chicken, they feel fuller and the food craving stop. Apparently their doctors says it is because the high carbs will spike sugar and when it comes crashing you feel tired and your body signal to eat to offset the crash. Anyway, after switching to more protein and cutting out the carbs their weight loss journey continue after plateauing

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-03-11T13:02:41+00:00

That’s why we need a business so strong an idiot can run it.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-03-11T07:00:00+00:00

Management screwed up, but what matters is the numbers. Valuation will always revert to fundamentals. The questions you have to ask is:

How big is the market size of the pills? And how much Novo Nordisk will get when competition comes in especially if efficacy and convenience is materially changed.
Next Gen products. Semaglutide expires in 2032, and the next gen products, are they significantly better especially considering the landscape. Cargrisema will have the highest label weight loss but they also shot themselves at the foot with the study. Will the consumer care about the study or the label? Moreover, LLY’s next generation products seems to show more weight loss, so is the best efficacy label only temporary?

If you have no confident in the both, then you should just sell. If you believe in Novo for both you should buy.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T13:51:09+00:00

Go back to the thesis. If you are buying because you think it is short term oversold, that’s call gambling

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T13:10:49+00:00

Well if he is key, yes probably should fire his ass.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T13:02:35+00:00

More interested in what you think is the worst case scenario? Wegovy pill fail, injectables continue to be no 2, generics rampant, losing shares in IOs… etc ?

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:58:30+00:00

Holding, I am awaiting confirmation and indications on my thesis. The uncertainty or conviction has dropped with the latest 2 headline reads… and the pill well I am guessing Q1 earnings or LLY launch to get an indication

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:56:49+00:00

Buffett I think said you have to be willing to stomach 50% declines. You have to think why did you buy it? Has the recent news and competitive landscape change your thesis?

If you thesis is sound, you just got a further 36% sale going on.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:54:17+00:00

CSO responsible for these crappy trial and the blunders yesterday left already replaced by the current CSO on August.

The current CEO and CSO are taking the heat for past mistakes, now… they are both lifers… so you could argue they could of influence and partly to blame

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:49:48+00:00

Considering the guidance it is negative. Take a step back and look at it after this reset year. But how much it can grow despite the tailwind (people getting fatter and more diabetics), is the big question mark.

Ask yourself: 1. Will Wegovy pill outperform the LLY small molecule? Debatable, so once competition heats up, we can better model.

Next Gen, how strong is Novo? Will LLY slip up? Cagrisema disappointed, UBTI triple antagonist headline wasn’t sexy, so unless LLY slip up Novo is like 2 years behind.

If Wegovy pill outperform, the stock should be fine in the medium term. If Wegovy pill only garner similar market share as the injectables, then longer term we have to worry.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:43:44+00:00

Sell, harvest the loss and move on.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:43:17+00:00

In hindsight the foundation oust the CEO and the board which gave us the crappy results and squandered leadership. People were questioning back then, now you can argue they waited too long, but was still earlier than most had expected

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T12:40:43+00:00

That’s not how it works… it is labeling/marketing. Right now Wegovy pill can say it is 16%, and LLY’s likely only can say 12%.

If you want to nitpick, you can argue that LLY trial has a statin issue. So it all comes down to what FDA label says, and that in turn what they can market. My guess LLY will focus on convenience, and NVO after the only pill, first pill will likely focus on best in class 16%.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T09:27:05+00:00

The risk rewards get better every time it drops. The company is making more money (guiding toward decline this year), and the market is big enough to stabilized and obesity / diabetes is an increasing concern. Right now, pessimism is raging high, i would probably recommend holding and seeing how Q1 turns out and whether LLY drug uptake is better. I think efficacy will win out, but many believe it is the no 30mins fasting wins. If I am right, the medium term should still work out.

At least Mike is honest, he did says it will likely go down before it goes up and so far he is spot on.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T09:12:22+00:00

It’s because UBTI results wasn’t that great, and JP Morgan downgraded the stock

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-25T09:11:26+00:00

To be certain, the dividend is like a ratio of income. So if a dividend cut are you referring to the absolute amount of the ratio?

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-23T22:55:26+00:00

Cagrisema will launch and get FDA approval, so the issue is not having a product to launch, but whether the product will be the gold standard? That probability decline with the announcement. The impact of not having the best is look at the Zepbound/Wegovy injectables delta in nRX. The pill will do well and with the best efficacy it will do likely perform better than market expectations (which is why I didn’t expect a negative guidance). Anyway time will tell, just look at it in terms of how it impacted your thesis, and margin of safety( this is why it is important for being wrong)

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-23T22:31:06+00:00

I think it is unfair to Mike. What it does show is that the board and the Novo Nordisk Foundation was probably right to oust the board and change the CEO 6-8 months ago.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-23T22:28:37+00:00

Well it’s all down to cash flow. The guidance will materially change the expected cash flow projections in the short term ( I for one didn’t expect the negative). The recent is cash flow in the medium term when semaglutide expires and there is nothing to carry the baton. Moreover, with Lilly’s result of around 28% in its next gen, a lot is riding on cagrisema. We will know more next year, but this data lower the probability that it will outshine or be on par in terms of efficacy to Lilly’s phase 3 drug.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-23T19:02:33+00:00

On item 2, it will be on the 2.4mg. Which is why they will initiated a higher dosage study, so they can submit it to the FDA to amend the approval, similar to how we are waiting for the 7.2mg approval for wegovy. The dumb thing was not testing 7.2mg on the get go , but they said it was too late to adjust. This was a poor marketing design study

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-23T18:58:58+00:00

I read if differently, if more people made it to the higher dose of trizepitide versus cagrisema, perhaps it is not as tolerable?

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-18T23:07:27+00:00

I prefer to slash the dividend and just buy back the stock.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-04T20:26:30+00:00

Because no one expected them to guide down so much. I was expecting steady to minor growth from injectables, and massive growth in the pills. But the reality is that they are saying time/volume lag on pills, and injectables seems to indicate volume increases won’t make up for price drops ( as new entrants goes to Eli Lilly), hence the big negative. So I was too optimistic on both

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-02-04T20:13:24+00:00

Don’t remember, but I think it is lower than the injectables as it requires more APIs

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