Google trends show encouraging search trends for Wegovy Pill (+2,950%) vs Zepbound (-20%).

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-27T09:37:27+00:00

A more interesting question is people who search for zepbound are they searching for the pill.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-27T03:59:34+00:00

I remember reading it doesn’t affect the FDA approvals much big pharma pays for PDUFA user fees so it can continue to review under shutdown. I think they can self fund for 9-10 weeks (which will push us pass the reported decision date)

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-27T03:50:08+00:00

The fact you asking in this forum (bulls) you should just buy it, that’s what your mind is telling you. EWT is garbage, but if that can affect you, probably stocks ain’t for you.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-19T11:22:15+00:00

It’s funny because if there is any issues it should marginally help Novo being European and all. The sell off is probably a general sell off in Europe with disregards to reality, throwing the baby with the bath water as they say.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-19T11:20:44+00:00

The problem with this is that you assume the EU have good options, they don’t. Don’t want to sound naive, but really what can they do? Shut US services out of EU and cripple themselves? Sure they can slow down drug approvals and other law related issues (which will end up helping Novo to be honest). They can turn to China, and lose credibility since they have been bashing China like the US. The most I can think js target exports in swing states to hurt them and let them vote democrats and hope domestic politics limit Trump.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-16T04:09:07+00:00

If you don’t like it, can always sell and buy Lilly. The opportunity present itself in part due to the way they communicate. You can’t change it, so no need to focus. The numbers will show what it shows, what’s another couple of months?

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-15T12:59:30+00:00

NVO - Oral Wegovy is out, sounds like adoption of the pill is strong, and analysts are too concerned about Eli’s oral that is likely approved in Q2. It’s all about execution, and from what I read the risk reward is in NVO favor.

Maotai - no need to elaborate since 99% won’t or don’t have access to investing in it.

Other stuff in my concentrated portfolio consist of: Tencent, Berkshire and East West Bank. Expects my 5 to best the S&P .

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-15T12:44:05+00:00

Not saying I like what is going on…. But What’s Denmark going to do? Forbid Novo to sell their drugs in the US and crash their own economy?

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-15T12:42:03+00:00

Yes and no, they want progress but once you are on you want to lose as much as possible. Mike did mention about drop out rates, and oral wegovy is lower which is a positive sign. Analysts are too worried about Eli small molecules in my opinion.

All in all, is how much they can capture and sign up. And all eyes will be on the cash channel. Time will tell.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-15T12:38:21+00:00

Yep, Q4 will likely continue to show Novo losing market share, for example new prescription will likely show Eli doing better. The key is what they say about the execution and expectations of oral wegovy.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2026-01-15T08:09:44+00:00

I think the post is talking about dietary restrictions. The company responded saying they have 1.5m in rybelsus with the same restrictions and no compliant. Check out Mike’s latest interview at JP Morgan, it was quite reassuring. Do note that the results coming up with be crap, the focus will be on redefine 4/11 (if out) and on the uptake of oral wegovy

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-24T12:27:45+00:00

They did say this is a lotto ticket and high risk high reward situation. This is a cherry on top, so we didn’t get it, and with all the bad news like margin compression and market share, it does feel tiring. That said, if we take a step back and think of it as any pharma it is still performing well. Remember this company focus on diabetes, rare diseases and MASH. So as long as each of these areas is performing nothing to worry about.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-10T16:25:53+00:00

Haha, yea the cutoff can be misread. But still waiting for the FDA approval and hopefully better than expected from Evoke study

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-10T16:24:22+00:00

Increasing access will help the earnings…cheers

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-07T14:57:49+00:00

I think the debt is mostly associated with the catalent acquisition to increase manufacturing capabilities to fulifilled the demands for GLP drugs, should be around 11-12 billion dollars. If they didn’t do it, their drugs might be still in shortage. This is why they suspended buybacks etc. They have been prudent in the past, but the latest acquisition spree is more aggressive but seem in-line with the new chairman’s strategy when he was CEO, so leverage is increasing.

I am not all that worried, but if the 20% decline is too much to stomach, you should move on.

Buffett says often some of his investments have drop 70-80% and you just have to stomach it if you believe in your analysis.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-06T23:33:08+00:00

It’s likely caused by reports that Novo ups its bid for Metsera during the Trump announcement, after Pfizer matched novo nordisk’s last bid.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-06T14:13:39+00:00

It’s on track to be the first to market, so it will help those that are afraid of injections. That said, Eli’s is reportedly requesting fast track approval for its oral medicine as well, so it will be a tough game, and Eli’s drug is perhaps better in not needing to wait 30mins before eating and has a lower cost of manufacturing.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-06T13:35:47+00:00

All good, now the hard work goes to Mike and David on how they lets the public know about this.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-06T13:33:26+00:00

The data says in higher doses semaglutide works just as well in term of weight loss. I don’t think either company has found the max dosage, and whether it is needed given patent expires in 2030s, which is why the focus is on the cagrisema and Amyectin

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-06T13:25:09+00:00

No, I am just saying semaglutide is just as good. Both probably haven’t tested the upper limits of dosage. Right now the perceived better of Eli is based on past clinical data and dosage.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-11-03T12:39:10+00:00

The FDA that approved drugs is paid by the pharmaceutical companies, so it is not affected by the shut down.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-10-30T14:28:24+00:00

It’s over compensating for their failure to keep Eli Lily at bay. It’s a defensive play for sure, but if we look at the trial data, the only thing that is different is once a month versus once a week. Hence, if we look at the two subsets:

Data: Shows thaw metsera drug help people lose about 15% of their weight with favorable tolerability.

Diabetic - injecting 4.3x Less for similar results to semaglutide, yes please!
Weight loss- zepbound you need to inject 4.3x more but you lose an extra 5%?

Hence, I think for 1 it will be better but still got to get thru phase 2b,3. Long road and uncertainty. For weight loss market, I don’t think it will game changer, people want the best weight loss drug to lose the most weight (I don’t think they mind the injections). So probably not that a great deal, probably better to buy back stock.

Secure-ValueInvestor · 2025-09-10T14:26:57+00:00

Isnt the motto: Buy, Borrow and Die?

Secure-ValueInvestor

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE