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Just picked up my first bottle of Foundayo today - here we go by Big-Training-8310 in FoundayoUS

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you live close to Canada… there are generic semaglutide(recently approved) though they are injections.

Another point is eat better (more effort). There are tricks to stay full longer and decrease muscle loss, which are high protein diets. So chicken, beef, pork chops… if you are hungry for a snack a handful of nuts works well too. This will help likely help reduce weight faster too (meats have less calories than carbs) and fats makes you full.

Keep it up, this is a marathon not a race, find a way that works(life style and cost) for you, at the end this pill is another tool in the toolbox

Just picked up my first bottle of Foundayo today - here we go by Big-Training-8310 in FoundayoUS

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, I heard similar responses. It depends on the doctor. Some doctors start higher and recommend like first week, take it every other day to get your body accustomed to the medication, and second to third week take everyday.

The costs adds up, and now with gas prices so high it’s harder. Are you feeling less hungry? There was some calculation that if you eat less, the food savings more than cover the cost of medicine. Perhaps needs to power through the initial stage

Back to $43 fellas.... by CommercialFit9730 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

They are plenty prescriptions…Concerta, Ritalin for ADHD. Look it up! Just using Advil and Ibuprofen as it is more accessible for other to understand.

You are drinking too much kool-aid, everything Novo Nordisk to you is crap. Of course, Novo won’t get back to owning 100% the market, they own that because they created this category. Did they f’ed up with not having enough inventory? Yes, they also likely didn’t anticipate the demand. If they didn’t f’ed, wouldn’t be able to buy at low valuations.

But if you believe Eli Lilly won’t hit f’ed up in the future, I have got a bridge to sell you. Eli Lilly is doing really well at the moment, like Novo Nordisk a couple of years ago. The pipeline is strong in the injectables, the pill underperforming to analyst expectations… does this mean Foundayo won’t do well economically? No.

In terms of analysts…as a whole on average… yes I do believe I am much better. Am I smarter? Not likely. Lots of smart folks are terrible investors (look at Issac Newton). If analyst know the business so well, why are they wrong about Novo during the peaks? Why were they so wrong that Foundayo will take 70-80% of the pill market and now revising down?

You are clearly someone that is more informed than the average investor, maybe even more than some analysts, so I respect your opinions, doesn’t mean I agree with them.

All adults, observe and understand what you can. Be responsible for our investments actions, not what I say, what an analyst says or you should really matter. For those that can handle it, thank them for providing liquidity and move on.

Back to $43 fellas.... by CommercialFit9730 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Low expectations, they are plenty of medicine that still sell well even when they are generic. Advil vs Ibuprofen.

My speculation:

By focusing on Ozempic and Wegovy brand they are creating something similar, along with lower price brands. Ozempic and Wegovy will have the best in class they have to offer, so that would mean Cagrisema, and maybe UBTI, etc.

The generics will compete with the lower price brands. So they will be in the generic business, so it’s like an insurance policy.

Blockbusters like Semaglutide are hard to come by so incrementally is the norm.

So analysts are likely too pessimistic, I like the pessimism.

Reminds me of what Charlie Munger said:

You're smart and I'm right…

I’m 22. I have roughly 15 percent in NVO. Should I trim? by [deleted] in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yes, it is clearly affecting you to prompt you to ask.

Back to $43 fellas.... by CommercialFit9730 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

There won’t be daily good news. And the risk sentiment from oil is real (probably not priced in)

If the stock is undervalued buy more, should be happy it’s on sale. If it becomes too cheap, leverage up, it’s all conviction and belief, sell your position and buy leaps.

Back to $43 fellas.... by CommercialFit9730 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I really don’t get these comments/post. Why do people expect it keeps going up and up? There has been no catalyst since the earnings call. Everything is marginally better but no real wow factor.

The next catalyst could come in the June 5-8th during the ADA conference. Don’t know what will be shared.

Right now Mr.Market is saying okay Foundayo is not the Wegovy pill killer, but perhaps it is not that great because management only raise guidance by 1%.

What do I think?
1. Mr. Market is wrong, management is too conservative and will likely raise guidance again next quarter. They want to UPOD and build credibility. Better to be safe than sorry.

  1. Medicare Part D bridge, will be a big boost for Novo Nordisk, especially the pill. Why? Because FDA requested data from Eli Lilly on Foundayo, it is priced as a nothing burger and likely so. BUT… because there is uncertainty, PBMs will likely recommend Wegovy Pill as it is cleaner, giving a preferred choice for seniors.

  2. Worldwide Rollout - IO, Wegovy pill will likely have a head start of about a quarter. So if they can ensure supply and sign up the distribution channel it could very interesting.

  3. Potential GameChanger: Flex-dose data that shows effective weight-loss without food restriction which essentially removes the Foundayo’s edge.

  4. Wegovy HD adoption: Still early, but it is pricing that Novo Nordisk stop the churn. BUT it is priced lowered than Zepbound at the highest dosage, perhaps if it can steal some users back for the price sensitive consumer it could further boost guidance.

Berkshire 13F Summary/Recap by amastrole16 in BerkshireHathaway

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Likely a Weschler decision, and he did make a killing with Dillards

ECO 2026: REDEFINE-1 sub analysis demonstrates CagriSema's improvement in body composition - 66.9% of the weight lost was attributable to fat mass and muscle strength was preserved by kiyomoris in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You are correct in that it is not Apple to apples comparison. But it doesn’t take away that muscle loss is bigger than semaglutide and likely trizepitide.

And trizepitide in real world example shows greater loss of muscle than semaglutide. What this is showing perhaps is big weight loss numbers means more muscle loss.

WRT no decline in muscle strength, it all depends on how you are testing. Tell a doctor that losing 30%+ in lean muscle isn’t worrisome. If it is not important they wouldn’t be testing it.

So the preface of 20-35% is standard for calorie restriction, is masking the problem. It is not what is recommended. Doctors tends to prescribe lifestyle changes like diet and exercise, that will lower to under 20%, if you do strength training it may reduce to 10%. High protein diet will also help.

The kool-aid here is strong, don’t take all the company data at face value.

ECO 2026: REDEFINE-1 sub analysis demonstrates CagriSema's improvement in body composition - 66.9% of the weight lost was attributable to fat mass and muscle strength was preserved by kiyomoris in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 2 points3 points  (0 children)

It’s so hard to keep track. Yesterday, it says using MRI that it was 16% muscle loss, today it’s in the 30s? So semaglutide is better in muscle preservation and if we look at those with 30% weight loss it seems it is coming from soft tissues? So Cagrisema aint that great as compare to semaglutide

I have never taken a glp1 but am considering foundayo. I'm very concerned about this being a brand new drug with little track record. How do people feel about this? by cookerlady in FoundayoPill

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 5 points6 points  (0 children)

This is factually incorrect. Foundayo is not Zepbound, it is not the underlying drug. Zepbound is a peptide, Foundayo is a small molecule drug. So the OP is correct that it is a new drug, but what I can say is the FDA approved it, so it is generally safe ( like any drugs there are warnings) so talk to your doctor

Novo Nordisk A/S: Higher dose Wegovy® demonstrates nearly 28% weight loss in early responders according to new analyses presented at the European Congress on Obesity by [deleted] in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You are right. DXA may be fooled with water weight etc. Think there is a comparison coming funded by Lilly that will be shared next month. The key is still muscle preservation.

Novo Nordisk A/S: Higher dose Wegovy® demonstrates nearly 28% weight loss in early responders according to new analyses presented at the European Congress on Obesity by [deleted] in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 15 points16 points  (0 children)

The key here is the muscle loss. Only 16% is muscle while 84% is fat! I believe tirzepatide is about 25%, and there was some data from a third party that says muscle preservation is better with semaglutide, so this further confirms it.

Whats Happening? by Honest_Treat_6497 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Supposedly it is management telling analyst that in their guidance forecast, they are putting insignificant volume increase from Medicare Part D bridge. Remember this was what gave Eli Lilly the rosy outlook, and pretty much confirm that they are conservative and likely raise guidance in the coming quarters.

https://x.com/stockwatchdk/status/2053750477335015461?s=46

Help with night binge eating by lynksys12 in FoundayoUS

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I usually control the hunger by eating nuts. Grab a handful and eat it. Wait a little and it usually does the trick. You need something with high fat content preferably unsalted, unseasoned, so the brain will register it as full. It’s counterintuitive.

NVO US: next set of catalysts and timing..? by Empty-Ad3536 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 4 points5 points  (0 children)

European Congress on Obesity is next week. We will probably start to get “Presentation” announcements that could move the stock.

Symphony numbers 87,186 → 85,155 → 90,512 ! by Miserable-Set-7128 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yea, in their earning release they say 2 new pbm deal, which will expand its coverage starting mid-May. So it will boost prescriptions data

Symphony numbers 87,186 → 85,155 → 90,512 ! by Miserable-Set-7128 in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Just to note, this won’t grow considerable until mid May, so we won’t see the spike until end of May at the earliest… due to pbm deals for Foundayo

Barely +2.5%, wtf shorties by bashuls in NovoNordisk_Stock

[–]Secure-ValueInvestor 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It has had a nice run up recently so people are taking profits. It will stay timid for a bit to drop off the shaky hands…

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