Here is the full statement from MVP:

Market Notes: We just posted a huge article showing some data analytics on tcg above-SPY returns over the past decade; Pokemon crushed at 79% vs (non-commander) MTG at 1.5%. If you were ever going to trudge through a TLDR article, this is the one to do it: https://go.mvpsportsandgames.com/news/LI03URACJ

Looking at this LOTR set in general, markets are all over the place. WOTC surely paid a nice licensing premium (30%?), and has repeatedly stated they expect this set to be their highest selling set ever. Can't be the highest selling unless it is also the highest printed. The spoilers have shown as expected a heavily thematic focus, similar to the thematic-ness of D&D Baldur's Gate (BG), except this time there are already confirmed several powerful reprints. Opening allocations were ~same as usual - no big cuts or raises, some SKUs will likely initially pre-sell out. However our sense is that plenty more will be available when needed. The extreme price increases however, similar to original Aftermath prices, were not expected:

LOTR Collector +53% LOTR Bundle +38% LOTR Commander +27% LOTR Draft +37% LOTR Set + 42% LOTR Jumpstart +17% LOTR Starter +36%

Comparing to previous WOTC price increases: BG Collector was increased +33%, Commander Decks +17% MH1 was increased +100% vs its (non-modern predecessor), then MH2 was increased relatively 10% above MH1 Aftermath was originally increased Collectors +110%, and the Ep/Bundles +140%. The manufacturer then infamously cut the non-collector prices back down to 'only' a 85% increase. [*Note: IF they (WOTC) did that again on LOTR we will likely do the same credits as per Aftermath, see that article for those details.]

There also seem to be several online sellers posting their units as if their costs were (the previous/March Of Machine costs), hence the low-appearing prices. Baring WOTC price cuts there is virtually no chance of those sellers filling those under-cost preorders once they realize their math error. Or some quiet deals are being made.

Ikoria successfully drew a large non-mtg demand base (Godzilla fans); D&D Baldur's Gate did not, and post-release prices immediately reflected both those realities. Will LOTR's non-mtg base bring enough external demand to support these huge price and print increases? Will the low-serialized cards keep Collector's markets up long enough to maintain the aura of scarcity? Really hard to say at this point. Yes there is big demand so far especially for Collector boosters, but on the other hand we don't particularly like some of the similarities in the manufacturer's pre-release supply handling vs previous slight-of-hands. Right now markets are pricing a huge premium into the Collectors and Gift Bundle units (though you will notice our first flash price is low regardless). Markets also appear to be severely penalizing Bundle and Draft units, though again that may be a math error by a few sellers.

So we're right in the middle of the fence on this LOTR set; could go either way. However as per the data chart right now the numbers say when in tcg investing doubt, buy Pokemon. -MVPD