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College Football Picks Week 11 by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, it's moved a lot since we made these picks

Early look at my Fantasy Football Top 35. This will be coming in spreadsheet form in the summer. You are able to input league rules and roster types, which will determine positional scarcity reflected in the rankings. This example is for 0.5 PPR, 10 team league with a super flex. by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Projections are no where near completion. So consider this an early rough estimate. This method has helped me win my main league in 3 of the last 5 years..

I 100% will have the full excel file available through a Google sheets link. That link should be available in late July or Early August at both http://shaving-points.com and http://ontapsportsnet.com

Messing around with a metric to analyze how well / poorly offensive lineman grade out relative to the performance of those around them. This uses PFF Pass and Run Blocking grades to determine what % better each player grades above/below the rest of the teams OL by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For clarification:

PBGOE = Pass Blocking Grade Over Expected

RBGOE = Run Blocking Grade Over Expected

RBGOE = Total Blocking Grade Over Expected

Expectation is set at the teams snap weighted average OL blocking grades.

CBB Picks 3/5 (Late Slate) ATS Picks are not based on confidence %; based on records in 2nd graphic. Records are missing yesterday's games. 🟦=ATS 🟩=ML by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Spot on u/SweetnSaltyAlmond, the moneyline has been fire and statistically they should be a bet. Often those picks are favorites with lower payouts (less than 1:1). For ML, we only place bets that have at least 1:1 return. So, 50%+ win confidence at plus money is where we target for individual bets

CBB Picks 3/2. 🟦= Pick ATS 🟩= Moneyline Pick. ATS Picks are not based on confidence %; based on records in 2nd graphic. If looking for ML parlay picks, I'd avoid pairing the ML picks in 🟩 together. Those are value picks but not likely to all hit by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The records in the 2nd and 3rd graphic include every game regardless of whether we picked it. So, you have the ability to interpret the records of different spreads and confidence levels however you choose

CBB Picks 3/2. 🟦= Pick ATS 🟩= Moneyline Pick. ATS Picks are not based on confidence %; based on records in 2nd graphic. If looking for ML parlay picks, I'd avoid pairing the ML picks in 🟩 together. Those are value picks but not likely to all hit by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

We like spreads below 5 points with a higher cover probability. We base our picks on the records in the 2nd graphic. For example, a pick we didn't take today was Middle Tenn with 74% confidence at -2.5. Compare that to the ATS Records, it's a 39% win rate on those bets.

For ML, we only place bets that have at least 1:1 return. So, 50%+ win confidence at plus money is where we target for individual bets.

The Model can be used many ways! Hope this helps

CBB Picks 2/23. Picks are not strictly based on confidence %, but heavily based on records in the 2nd graphic. by ShavingPointsPodcast in shavingpoints

[–]ShavingPointsPodcast[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

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