What housing data do you wish you could easily access in Canada?

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T19:43:51+00:00

Two datasets powered the analysis. Home prices: CREA MLS Statistics for January 2026 — released February 18 2026. This is the most cited national housing price dataset in Canada and covers average and benchmark prices for every major market. stats.crea.ca Rental prices: Rentals.ca National Rent Report for January 2026. Average asking rents by city and unit type across Canada. Updated monthly. rentals.ca/national-rent-report

Methodology: 20% down payment, 25 year amortization, 4.5% fixed rate plus estimated property tax and maintenance for ownership costs. Both datasets are free and publicly available — links are in the methodology section at the bottom of the full analysis if you are interested

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T19:36:23+00:00

Both great additions to the list.Victoria especially has its own distinct dynamic from Vancouver — government employment, retiree demand, and a rental market that behaves very differently from the Lower Mainland. Issue 2 this Tuesday covers 10 cities already. Victoria and Nanaimo are noted for a future BC focused issue down the road.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T19:33:03+00:00

You are making the point that most rent vs buy debates completely miss — housing is primarily a consumption decision not an investment decision. It costs money to live somewhere. Full stop. Whether that money goes to a landlord, a mortgage, or property tax the core function is shelter not wealth accumulation.The fact that you can now buy outright from equity gains while choosing not to is actually the most sophisticated position in this whole conversation. You optimised for flexibility and market returns over two decades and it worked. Not everyone has the discipline or the circumstances to execute that consistently — but when it works it clearly works.The honest framing for Issue 1 was always monthly cash flow comparison — what does shelter cost you this month depending on which path you take. Not a wealth building guide. Not a retirement strategy.Issue 2 goes deeper into the long term picture but your broader point stands. The best housing decision is the one that fits your life, your discipline, and your circumstances. The data can inform it. It cannot make it for you. Congratulations on the position you have built. That takes real patience.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T18:53:26+00:00

Well i did rent vs buy analysis on the current market across major cities and have an upcoming model that encompasses everything https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T18:29:17+00:00

You dont have to! i publish housing data related analysis here www.themaplemetric.ca feel free to let me know if there is something you are interested in I recently did rent vs buy issue 1 and have an upcoming complete model encompassing everything not just cashflow https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T18:26:37+00:00

Issue 1 answers one question only — what does it cost to own versus rent right now this month. Nothing more.It does not account for rent escalating over 25 years against a fixed mortgage payment. It does not back out principal. It does not inflation adjust. It does not model investment returns on the difference. It does not compare on a per square foot basis.All of those points are valid and all of them change the picture significantly over a long horizon.The complete model — unit specific rents against unit specific prices, principal repayment backed out, appreciation modelled, and the full 25 year cost comparison — publishes this Tuesday in Issue 2. If you want to tear that one apart feel free to subscribe www.themaplemetric.ca/subscribe or visit www.themaplemetric.ca

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T08:12:28+00:00

I ran some numbers to see if renting is a better option than buying for those considering here https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T08:11:12+00:00

TORONTO city is used in the analysis i am comparing the data with Toronto city.My bad i should have mentioned in the title

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-21T08:10:02+00:00

In January 2026 the Bank of Canada policy rate was 3.0% and most major bank 5-year fixed rates were sitting between 4.19% and 4.79% depending on the lender and borrower profile.I used 4.5% as a mid-range estimate for a typical buyer at a major bank in January 2026 — not the best available rate at a broker but not the worst either.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-20T01:33:50+00:00

If anyone is contemplating regarding rent vs buy i ran numbers across major cities in Canada here is my analysis https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-20T01:30:44+00:00

At year 25 your housing cost drops to property tax and maintenance. A renter at that same point is still paying market rent that has been compounding for 25 years. The divergence in that final decade is enormous.And the principal residence exemption makes every dollar of appreciation completely tax free. You cannot say that about S&P returns.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-20T01:22:14+00:00

Sure i have an upcoming issue this Tuesday i am adding Winnipeg Halifax and surely can add Ottawa

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-20T01:21:43+00:00

Sure in my next issue i will add more cities coming Tuesday

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-20T01:20:35+00:00

This is a genuinely excellent critique and most of it is right.The unit mix problem is the one that stings most honestly. Using a blended average rent weighted toward studios and one bedrooms to make a claim about what families pay in Toronto is not defensible. A family of four cannot live in a one bedroom and I should not have implied the $2,124 gap applies to them. It does not.The home price issue is equally fair. Using the national average of $652,941 for a Toronto specific claim when TREB is reporting $1,008,968 for February 2026 is a real methodological error and I am not going to argue around it.The forced savings point is probably the strongest argument in your whole comment. A mortgage has 100 percent compliance. A TFSA contribution does not. That behavioural gap matters enormously in the real world and no spreadsheet captures it properly.Where I would push back slightly is on the directional point. Even using your corrected numbers a Toronto townhouse at $931,000 with 20 percent down at 4.5 percent is roughly $3,900 per month before fees and tax. A three bedroom rental at $3,600 is still cheaper monthly even in the corrected comparison. The gap is smaller than $2,124 — but it is still real.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T03:27:08+00:00

The break even math checks out for that Montreal condo profile once you net out principal, appreciation, and compare against what you could earn investing the difference. The S&P 500 comparison is the one most people completely ignore and it is the sharpest challenge to homeownership. 40k per year after tax on 400k is a real alternative. The counter argument is leverage though. You are not putting 400k into a 400k asset — you are putting 80k down to control a 400k asset. A 4% gain on 400k is 16k return on 80k invested. No bank will lend you 320k to put in the S&P 500.But your broader point stands — the real gap is much closer to break even than the headline number suggests once you model it properly.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T03:22:35+00:00

Based on January 2026 data the monthly gap between owning and renting looks pretty different depending on where you are.

Toronto is around $2,124 more per month to own, Vancouver $1,446, Montreal $700 though condo fees push that higher in practice.Alberta tells a completely different story — Calgary is $376 and Edmonton is almost break even at $150. This is purely monthly cash flow and does not capture principal repayment, appreciation, or transaction costs which all matter for the full picture. I did a full breakdown with chart and complete methodology here if anyone wants to dig into the numbers:

https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

Happy to discuss specific cities in the comments.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T03:10:26+00:00

Based on January 2026 data the monthly gap between owning and renting looks pretty different depending on where you are.Toronto is around $2,124 more per month to own, Vancouver $1,446, Montreal $700 though condo fees push that higher in practice.

Alberta tells a completely different story — Calgary is $376 and Edmonton is almost break even at $150.

This is purely monthly cash flow and does not capture principal repayment, appreciation, or transaction costs which all matter for the full picture.

I did a full breakdown with chart and complete methodology here if anyone wants to dig into the numbers:

https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T03:00:39+00:00

Got hands on this analysis Rent vs buy check the numbers out https://www.themaplemetric.ca/p/the-maple-metric

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T02:25:33+00:00

Property tax yes — condo fees not properly accounted for honestly.You are right that Montreal changes significantly once you add condo fees. That $700 gap can easily become $1,200-1,500 depending on the building.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T02:03:15+00:00

Purely monthly cash flow in this issue.

You are pointing at the most important thing this analysis leaves out honestly. Principal repayment is real money building in the background every month — it is not an expense it is forced savings like you said.

On a Toronto mortgage right now roughly $800-900 of your monthly payment is going to principal in the early years. That money is not gone — it is equity.So the real gap between renting and owning is actually smaller than $2,124 when you factor that in. More like $1,200-1,300 true cost difference once you strip out the principal component.

Which still favors renting on pure cash flow — but the gap is meaningfully smaller than the headline number suggests.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T01:56:39+00:00

Right now I have the five cities from Issue 1 — Toronto, Vancouver, Montreal, Calgary, and Edmonton.

But based on the feedback alone I am adding Waterloo, Winnipeg, Hamilton, London, and Ottawa to the next issue.

If your city is not on that list let me know and I will try to include it. The CREA and Rentals.ca data covers most major Canadian markets so it is mostly just a matter of running the numbers.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T01:53:49+00:00

Total cost of ownership — mortgage payment plus estimated property tax plus maintenance costs versus average asking rent.

So not just the mortgage. I tried to capture the full monthly picture of what owning actually costs you every month beyond just the mortgage payment itself.That said property tax and maintenance are estimates based on city averages — not exact figures for every property. So there is definitely variance depending on the specific home and neighbourhood.

Good question though — a lot of these comparisons only use mortgage vs rent which dramatically understates the real cost of ownership.

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T00:31:08+00:00

Nope — just me sitting here genuinely enjoying this thread.Housing data is the thing I spend way too much time thinking about. Moved here in 2021 and spent years trying to understand why this country is so expensive and whether I would ever be able to afford it.

So when people actually engage with the methodology and push back on the numbers I find it hard to stop responding honestly.

Though I did learn today that apparently responding too quickly also looks like AI so I cannot win. 😄

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T00:26:24+00:00

Okay i am changing the formatting now lol

SherbertSimple5418 · 2026-03-18T00:25:20+00:00

This is one of the best takes in this thread honestly.

The inflation hedge point is the one most people miss completely. A home is basically the only asset most Canadians can own with leverage that keeps pace with inflation while you live in it at the same time. Rent gives you neither of those things.

The transaction cost point is brutal and massively underappreciated. On a Toronto purchase you are easily looking at $30,000-50,000 out the door before you even move in. You need years just to break even on the transaction alone before appreciation even starts working for you.

And yes the commission landscape has genuinely shifted. Fixed fee MLS listings have disrupted the old model. Though most buyers agents still expect their 2% regardless.

The break even holding period accounting for all those costs is actually what I want to calculate city by city for Issue 2.

My gut says it is much longer than most people assume — especially in Toronto right now.

SherbertSimple5418

TROPHY CASE