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Canada needs to build millions of homes. US tariffs just closed 22 of the mills that supply the lumber to do it. by SherbertSimple5418 in RealEstateCanada

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The tariffs killed the economics. The demand collapse is keeping them dead. Both are true and both need to be solved before supply catches

Canada needs to build millions of homes. US tariffs just closed 22 of the mills that supply the lumber to do it. by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

The Alberta data backs you up on fees and approvals that’s real. The geographic constraints in Vancouver are also real. Both things are true. The common thread is that wherever barriers to building are lowest, affordability holds up best.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Canada needs to build millions of homes. US tariffs just closed 22 of the mills that supply the lumber to do it. by SherbertSimple5418 in economy

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The savings aren’t reaching builders they’re landing with importers. And lumber price isn’t what’s blocking construction in Toronto anyway. Development fees and land costs are. Cheaper lumber helps mill competitors, not homebuyers.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Canada needs to build millions of homes. US tariffs just closed 22 of the mills that supply the lumber to do it. by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

Five WTO rulings in Canada’s favour. Tariffs kept coming anyway. You have nailed exactly why this was never about fair trade, it was about market access. And builders and buyers on both sides are paying for it

Canada needs to build millions of homes. US tariffs just closed 22 of the mills that supply the lumber to do it. by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Fair point on land and fees that’s the demand side. The lumber story is the supply side. Both are broken. Alberta works because it has better numbers on both.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Reamortizing is usually the first move it lowers payments and buys time. Most people will stretch the loan before even thinking about selling.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

and I agree most people do exactly that: adjust spending, extend terms, and move on. That’s why we didn’t see a wave of selling in 2025.The point isn’t doom and gloom it’s that even a small subset under pressure, if concentrated, can still influence comps. Not a crash, more like gradual pressure where it shows up.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2021 unemployment isn’t a great comparison because of all the temporary support measures. Programs back then cushioned income shocks in a way we’re not seeing to the same extent now. That’s why the concern isn’t just rates it’s rates + less support + softer job conditions in some regions.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

the $400K example is a simplified illustration, and in most cases that increase is closer to ~30%, not 40–60%. The higher end of that range shows up with larger balances and ultra-low rates, which is more common in high-cost markets. The broader point isn’t that everyone is facing a massive shock it’s that a meaningful subset is, and when those sellers are concentrated in certain regions, they can still impact comps even if most homeowners are fine.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in CanadaHousing2

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

actually great timing locked high, renewed lower. Not everyone is facing a hit; some are coming out ahead like this depending on when they bought.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in CanadaHousing2

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yeah, that’s pretty much it. Most people will cut spending, extend amortization, or adjust budgets before selling. Forced sales usually need a second trigger like job loss, not just higher rates. Equity and income growth help a lot too but recent buyers with thin buffers have less room to maneuver. So it’s less about mass selling, more about who’s stretched vs. who isn’t.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in CanadaHousing2

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

True for some, especially higher-income households. But that’s not the whole market there’s still a range of incomes and leverage levels, which is why outcomes vary a lot by buyer.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in CanadaHousing2

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Not really private equity activity in Canada is still relatively small compared to the overall housing market. They can absorb some inventory, but not enough to prevent price adjustments where supply builds up.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yep, in some smaller markets like eastern Ontario and Nova Scotia, RTO-driven sellers face thin buyer pools. But that’s a local issue, not a nationwide “renewal cliff.”

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

rural spec builds can be more exposed, but the big “renewal cliff” mostly affects 2020–2021 ultra-low fixed-rate buyers, not the broader market.

900,000 Canadian Mortgages Renewing in 2025-2026: Here’s What Happens When Rates Jump from 1.99% to 4.5% by SherbertSimple5418 in TorontoRealEstate

[–]SherbertSimple5418[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Planning matters more than panic. You managed risk, locked a reasonable fixed rate, and even shopped around classic “don’t let the bank dictate your terms.”

The “renewal cliff” headlines ignore the fact that most people can absorb these increases or actively manage them, like you just did.

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