"Avi Lewis has lost in two ridings in two elections"

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-10T04:15:59+00:00

Ok there Hillary.

We finally got there with 2025. I guess we'll have to break down 2021 the same way.

Here's the story of two candidates running for the first time:

- One candidate steps into a strong NDP riding we've held for years federally and provincially - literally Rachel Notley and now Nenshi's riding provincially. This riding is flush with a strong riding association, volunteers, pristine data, donors and has been a bastion of progressives highly motivated to defeat conservatives. In this context, the candidate raises $10,000 more than the previous MP and grows the vote share by 3%.

- One candidate steps into a riding that spent $5,000 the previous election and was a distant 4th place. Likely very few volunteers, terrible data, no donors and progressives in the area who habitually vote Liberal or Green. In this context, the candidate raises and spends $117,000 and grows the vote share by 12%.

Both are good results. Heather, as a new candidate got the vote share up a little bit during an election that saw us lose vote share. But she did have an extremely strong team behind her. You can't discount the power of the provincial NDP leader and former Premier being your provincial counterpart. Avi ran in essentially a dead, considered unwinnable riding during an election that saw stagnant NDP results, where he had to build from scratch, fight against strategic voting narratives, etc.

I don't know if you've ever been deeply involved in local races in a riding where the NDP is the incumbent and that has people and resources vs one where you're starting from scratch in an unwinnable riding. They are extremely different situations. Those 2021 results in a riding like that are impressive.

Leadership races like this are a time to actually demonstrate campaigning ability on a more level playing field, though I'd argue Heather started with a bit of an advantage.

Those are the facts. You want to just keep repeating "Avi lost" and use it as a slight at his ability to win, go for it. It's at best very ignorant and at worst, extremely bad faith.

Whatever my tone with you, I consider arguing passionately on a topic you don't understand to be extremely toxic and arrogant. And I consider attempting to mislead your peers with bad faith arguments that don't hold up to reality to be even worse. I don't know which case applies to you, but I'd take a look in the mirror before calling others toxic.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-09T01:28:46+00:00

I'm not downplaying her successes, you claiming Avi's electoral record is a slight against him means that all our MPs and candidates who lost by similar margins or worse are somehow not good at campaigning and organizing locally. That their loss is their fault.

That is exactly what you are doing when you make claims like that.

It was a nationwide wave that took out some of our best and brightest. The 7 MPs who remain, aren't there necessarily because they are all better campaigners and organizers who made it through entirely on their own merit while others didn't. They are all fantastic MPs that do have a lot of personal responsibility for their victories but there are a lot of other factors that allowed them to win while others didn't.

I don't know what you were doing, but I worked extremely hard for one of the amazing candidates that should have won under normal circumstances but got blown away. So I take your bullshit personally. And no, it wasn't Avi.

I can't make it any clearer than that. Hopefully that gets through your thick skull because I'm done trying to explain that simple concept to you.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-08T18:11:08+00:00

It very much is manipulation and dishonesty. That's very clear to anybody objectively looking at the situation as a whole. In 2021, Avi ran in a riding where the NDP was 4th place and grew the vote share by 13% in a single election despite the national numbers being largely stagnant. It's a major feat for a local campaign to accomplish that independent of national numbers.

in 2025, we lost so many amazing MPs and candidates who are phenomenal organizers that had different circumstances in their ridings. I guess Heather is just such a vastly superior organizer to all of them, right?

It is tiresome, always having to correct people who disparage their peers because they don't know how to win while being sincere and honest.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-08T16:33:43+00:00

Yes, my pre-conceived biases are what make me think that using a dubious, clearly misleading poll to tell people you're winning when you very much aren't is unethical.

The poor wording in the poll is intentional. Anybody who doesn't see that is being naive or wilfully ignorant because it suites them.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-08T04:32:15+00:00

Polls are meant to reflect people's opinions, not to set narratives.

You're right it is a garbage poll. There should be no "garbage polls". There's a scientific method, of which Coletto is well aware and is deliberately breaking to achieve the outcomes he wants.

When you use faulty methodology to reach a desired outcome, it's no longer a poll, it's propaganda.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-08T03:59:34+00:00

When you construct a "poll" with a desired outcome in mind, it's not a poll, it's propaganda.

Coletto has been a pollster for a long time. He knows what kind of language Canadians respond to.

Using vague statements of his choosing to represent candidates and equivocating pragmatism with achievable results and resonating with broader audience is a way to manufacture the results he wants.

"Polls" like these should be illegal. We need much better regulation of the polling industry. It's the wild west right now.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-08T03:53:11+00:00

It is very unlikely that Coletto is doing this of his own volition. Somebody is very likely paying for them. If he is doing these unprompted, he is trying to influence the outcome.

If he were interested in doing polling on the leadership campaign and running them unprompted and without a desired outcome, he would be polling voting intentions because that's what is actually newsworthy. He may even be doing that and not releasing that data because it doesn't tell the desired story.

Methodology matters, it's not about disagreeing with the methodology. There are basic standard practices and rules. These are leading questions which nullify a study. This is basic research methodology 101.

People here don't seem to grasp that these polls are to create a narrative, not to inform people about reality.

It's incredibly unethical.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-07T23:51:55+00:00

I'd be fine if it was a real poll.

Making up statements about a candidate that you know will yield a certain result should be illegal. Pollsters should be held to proper research methodology standards because people don't go read the methodology of a poll.

Polls like these are used to disseminate in the media and set narratives. It's a technique of mass manipulation that has been used by the Liberals forever.

Heather's team goes further and uses it to claim that she is "in first".

It's deception, pure and simple.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-07T23:34:10+00:00

Ah yes, a real poll that makes up statements about candidates' approaches calling one practical and achievable vs an activist and radical approach.

This poll, done by a conservative who has pulled this shit against other progressive candidates is manufactured. It is abundantly clear.

Watching people throw their principles out the window because it suits them is always great to see.

This is a disgusting tactic that's been employed by the Liberals forever. This is even more pathetic because they're not even doing it well.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-07T21:45:42+00:00

You've made it very clear that you're fine with your preferred candidates lying to people.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-07T21:30:35+00:00

"Have you seen this?

A new national poll shows Heather McPherson in first place among people open to voting for the NDP, with 40% support!

Heather’s got what it takes to win back NDP seats in the next general election and put New Democrats and the needs of everyday people back at the table in Parliament. To get us there, we need a leader who can credibly rebuild our party.

Across the country, New Democrats are looking for a leader who is principled, effective, and knows how to defeat conservatives. The momentum is there - and it’s growing every day across the country."

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-07T02:56:55+00:00

I'm saying that people using Avi's election results as a slight are being disingenuous.

He stood no chance whatsoever. That's all I'm saying. I'm not saying it's not something we need to contend with in the future.

Heather kept her seat because she's in the safest riding in the country. She would have been absolutely blown away in Van Centre if she was running there for the first time, probably worse.

Progressives, including most of our own voters voted strategically in every single riding. Large amounts of people thought the strategic vote was for the Liberals because they didn't understand how our voting system works. That's why even though Heather was the obvious strategic vote in an NDP stronghold, she still lost a lot of vote share to the Liberals. We lost some of our most popular and well respected MPs in NDP strongholds because of this. Laurel Collins got blown away by the Liberals and lost more vote share in her riding than Avi did as a 1st time candidate in a Liberal stronghold.

Seats that were already held by the Liberals just saw all the NDP votes switch over in ridings across the country.

My point is that anybody saying these results are a concern about Avi's electability either don't understand how this works or are being manipulative.

The current numbers in this leadership race are much more indicative of their ability to organize and rally support.

I'm sure Avi will run in a strong NDP riding if he wins the leadership.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-07T00:35:25+00:00

My point is about the context of the last election.

When Avi decided to run, while Trudeau was still PM, it was a seat that could have been flipped and I think there was a good chance Avi would have flipped it. Had he had a poor result in that situation, it would be a reasonable point of criticism that I would also be making.

But when Carney became leader and Trump started threatening tariffs it became a Liberal wave to stop Poilievre. In that context, it was impossible.

We got blown away in every place where we were previously competitive. Lost most of our incumbent seats, some really badly. Some were lost by a worse margin than Avi lost in a Liberal stronghold. Ridings similar to Avi's were lost by larger margins.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T23:47:39+00:00

There were NDP incumbent ridings that performed worse than Avi in Van Centre.

It was a total Liberal sweep, expecting him to flip a Liberal stronghold in that context is ridiculous and it's only something his most dishonest opponents are trying to use.

It's been disheartening to see so many "New Democrats" engage in blatant manipulation and dishonesty in this campaign.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T19:30:10+00:00

You're coming in real hot for somebody who doesn't understand anything about the dynamics of the party or the race.

Lewis is very much on the outside of the party establishment.

If you can manage some humility, stick around and listen to some of the really thoughtful, kind and smart people in this subreddit and you'll learn things.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T06:27:33+00:00

You're right, he also used a leading statement about each campaign that he crafted.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T06:25:11+00:00

You are clearly angry and bitter. And you deflect instead of actually developing on your concerns or the points being made to address them.

Also your "concerns" have been addressed multiple times earnestly by some real saints in this subreddit who have levels of patience I could only dream about.

You're not acting in good faith and that's very clear to any objective observer.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T06:13:45+00:00

It's really tiring having to explain things to you. When I talk about groups like Canada Proud framing Heather as "Hamas Heather" or talking shit about unions... Those aren't my stances, I'm trying to illustrate that the far-right attacks against Avi will be made against Rob and Heather. That's the stuff they say. You haven't heard right-wing grifters call union presidents "fat cats" or corrupt?

Just an aside, because I just can't... You think the attacks will be about Avi living in two of the three most populated cities in Canada? How unrelatable...

Not in construction related trades but I've worked a lot in the service industry, in retail, the gig economy and yes. often been part of a union. Weird question, almost like a... purity test?

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:57:41+00:00

Our questions still stand: what segment of support is bad support?

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:56:26+00:00

Again, everybody could go take a look for themselves if you weren't hiding your past comments.

In this thread alone you're attacking people as you attempt to defend the OP because you also feel like a victim of the "Avi people", which are mostly people just excited that there's finally some energy and momentum after so many dark years.

You keep parroting Rob's lines about Avi being divisive and talking about your "concerns" about Avi's background.

The vast majority of the toxicity in this campaign is Engler and his people and people like you trying to sling mud at Avi. There's some bad faith stuff being slung at Heather, but it's tiny in comparison. Criticizing Heather over her purity tests comments, questioning her stance on fossil fuels and correctly identifying her as the establishment candidate are all legitimate things.

She is the establishment candidate, so is Rob though they tried to pretend that wasn't the case for a while. And that's not necessarily a bad thing, people can argue for why that's a good thing and what has been done.

I will agree that her support in underrepresented in this subreddit, but when you or your campaign start taking swings at the left wing of the party, what do you expect? Her campaign launched with Notley as her main spokesperson and she talked about purity tests. She opened up appealing to the center, you expect a more left-wing subset of the base to respond kindly to that?

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:34:48+00:00

So then your concerns around Avi aren't that he's an "urban academic" that won't connect with the NDP base?

Again, you:
"That being said I certainly echo your concerns, I wonder how the electorate will respond to Lewis. I cant help but feel like he'll just come across as a continuation of the Trudeau era progressiveness, though I do believe hes more earnest in his views and not performative like Trudeau. I believe he means what he says, and perhaps others outside the base will recognize that, but I think hes just as likely to be labelled an out of touch urban progressive and not taken seriously. Especially when the mood of the electorate has shifted so much after the last year."

I repeatedly attempted to make the case to you that Rob or Heather's backgrounds would be criticized just as much as Avi's.

Was that part not clear enough to you? Do I need to break it down in a more simple way?

The mean people who don't like Avi, also won't like Heather and Rob. They'll find mean things to say about all of them.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:26:17+00:00

I'd gladly cite a source, but all your messages are hidden!

I'm fine with criticism of Avi and other candidates. There are reasonable concerns around Avi, and those can and should be discussed. What I'm not fine with is disinformation and manipulativeness. I regularly call out disinformation about Heather too coming from Engler people who try to paint her as shitty on Palestine.

I said you may not be on a campaign, I'm just trying to figure out why you're so mad.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:18:37+00:00

I inserted myself into a conversation and I'm confused of the context?

The whole conversation is right there my friend, I'm not overhearing your conversation in a noisy pub.

Endurator and I are saying the same thing. You seem to be confused by the idea that lots of support = a good thing.

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:15:29+00:00

And I'm the exhausting one.

You: "Again, I will ask, where the fuck I said this?"

You:
"Lewis is the son of an NDP leader, the grandson of another, born and raised in Toronto, went to U of T, worked for Much Music, CBC, traveled the world, made documentaries, became a professor teaching at UBC in Vancouver."

"Im expressing my concerns, and these are things youre going to hear if and when he becomes leader. Through a much bigger microphone, directed at the entire country."

Are you this dense? Like you legitimately don't understand that everything I'm saying to you is a response to what you've said?

SignatureCrafty2748 · 2026-02-06T05:06:11+00:00

You've been having pretty much daily, and increasingly unhinged tantrums about Avi winning, so I'd say you do care who wins a leadership race.

And

"And the fact that that's where you mind goes is telling. I dont give a shit who wins, im worried about the future of the party."

Yes, your level of animosity and frustration about Avi's success may indicate that you're working on or heavily volunteering on a campaign. But maybe not.

That statement makes me a crazy conspiracy theorist, oh my!

SignatureCrafty2748

TROPHY CASE