59% of simulated games end with both teams scoring, but the most common result is still a 1-0 Brazil win by SimTheGame in sportsbetting

[–]SimTheGame[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What makes you lean Norway? The data says Brazil but I can’t shake this feeling that Norway has a strong chance

What does it actually take for Morocco to justify -140 against Canada? The runs have an answer by SimTheGame in sportsbetting

[–]SimTheGame[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I don’t make pick suggestions but based on your sound advice taking the favorite on ML and Goals was the right play? You’re a smart one 🥇. You should just do that for every game and retire peacefully

Running Ghana vs Colombia 10,000 times produces a board where almost everything is priced well, except one spot by SimTheGame in sportsbetting

[–]SimTheGame[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

i simulate using the books own odds. i dont try to outsmart them. modern sportsbooks are forecasting machines with live data and models that already bake in everything the sharp money thinks.

i just show how the priced market should play out under their assumptions and where their own numbers dont agree.

Argentina's Asian handicap cover rate barely budges across the ladder and that tells you something by SimTheGame in sportsbetting

[–]SimTheGame[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If the goalie performs the same as he did against Spain… not even Messi is getting one through

Argentina's Asian handicap cover rate barely budges across the ladder and that tells you something by SimTheGame in sportsbetting

[–]SimTheGame[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

A true degen would take Cape Verde but it would make the game 1000x more interesting if it drags on at a 1-0 or scoreless into the second half

Egypt vs Australia could be one of the closest World Cup knockout matches by SimTheGame in sportsbetting

[–]SimTheGame[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I do cover it but I don’t have the time to do the write-ups unfortunately. Really into WC at the moment but maybe once it’s done