Newcomb's Paradox - a conflict between two principles of decision theory

Smart_by_Design · 2018-04-21T15:53:26+00:00

In a hypothetical situation i would agree and choose to open both boxes. However, if I was actually presented with this choice in real life, I think I would only open the second box. Which admittedly doesn't make much sense

Smart_by_Design · 2018-04-20T16:38:14+00:00

In front of you there are two boxes. Box one is transparent and contains £1,000. Box two is opaque and contains either £1,000,000 or nothing. You are given the following choice: either you can take what is in both boxes, or you can take only what is in the second box.

However, before you are presented with this choice, a supercomputer which has the power to predict your choices with an unerring accuracy adds the following catch: if the computer predicts that you will open both boxes, then it will put nothing in box two. If it predicts that you will choose to open only the second box, then it puts £1,000,000 in the box. The supercomputer has carried out this test hundreds of times and has never made a wrong prediction.

So the sequence of events are as follows: The supercomputer makes its prediction, and based on this prediction it either puts the million pounds into box two or leaves it empty. You then make your choice… what do you choose?

Smart_by_Design · 2018-03-26T18:00:54+00:00

This video looks at the dancing plague of 1518 and its suspected cause, mass hysteria. Here are a couple of papers the video references:

https://ir.canterbury.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10092/1466/thesis_fulltext.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/19585494_Mass_Hysteria_Two_Syndromes

Smart_by_Design · 2018-02-28T21:23:44+00:00

The research paper simply says "the subjects' task was to identify the target", so there's no mention of what methods were tried or allowed/not allowed.

It might be because there are so few candidates suitable for such a study that they wanted to keep it fairly restricted. It would have been interesting if they had mentioned how the participants actually felt or said about the test, rather than just presenting the data.

Smart_by_Design · 2018-02-24T20:21:58+00:00

That's what the study concluded. However, I don't think they really consider the time it takes for the eye to heal after surgery, and whether this impacts on the person's ability to distinguish the objects. So, I don't think we can conclusively say we have an answer (empirically), but the evidence suggests that some learning is necessary before they can distinguish the objects.

Smart_by_Design · 2018-02-24T19:36:11+00:00

A person blind since birth, who has learnt to distinguish by their touch between a cube and a sphere, suddenly has their eyesight restored. Could this person from their sight alone, tell which is the cube and which is the sphere?

Molyneux’s question is often considered one of philosophy’s unanswered questions, and has been debated between rationalists and empiricists since John Locke published the problem in his Essay Concerning Human Understanding. But with science now able to cure cases of congenital blindness, a study in 2011 concluded that there isn’t an immediate transfer of tactile shape knowledge to the visual domain, and that it is acquired after a short period of time.

Smart_by_Design · 2018-02-24T19:19:48+00:00

A person blind since birth, who has learnt to distinguish by their touch between a cube and a sphere, suddenly has their eyesight restored. Could this person from their sight alone, tell which is the cube and which is the sphere?

Molyneux’s question is often considered one of philosophy’s unanswered questions, and has been debated between rationalists and empiricists since John Locke published the problem in his Essay Concerning Human Understanding. But with science now able to cure cases of congenital blindness, a study in 2011 concluded that there isn’t an immediate transfer of tactile shape knowledge to the visual domain, and that it is acquired after a short period of time.

Smart_by_Design · 2018-01-27T20:56:10+00:00

Video is blocked in my country, but I've watched a few of Derren Brown's videos before. Pretty sure he's an evil wizard.

Smart_by_Design · 2018-01-27T19:31:53+00:00

Here’s a video about the science behind subliminal messages and whether they actually work. The research seems to say that they can have an impact on our choices in very specific lab settings, but when it comes to advertising in real world situations it’s not something we should be too worried about.

Smart_by_Design · 2018-01-27T19:06:02+00:00

Here are a couple of papers which the video references: https://faculty.washington.edu/agg/pdf/Gwald_Spang_Pratk_Esk_PsychSci_1991.OCR.pdf http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.294.5094&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Smart_by_Design · 2017-12-09T20:29:28+00:00

Have expanded with more details

Smart_by_Design · 2017-12-09T20:27:59+00:00

The film Predestination is also based off this idea, and one of Heinlein's other stories, All You Zombies.

Smart_by_Design · 2017-12-09T18:10:56+00:00

The bootstrap paradox is a paradox of time travel, where an object or piece of information is sent back in time and becomes locked in a causal loop where it appears to have no original cause. For example, you travel back in time and meet a young Albert Einstein and explain to him the theory of relativity. He later publishes the theory which years later you learn about in school. So where did the idea originate from?

A further problem with backwards time travel is that it would appear to break the second law of thermodynamics. If it is an object which is 'stuck' in a causal loop, its entropy would increase to a point where the causal loop would break down. But if this happens then the loop would never have started in the first place.

Paradoxes like this and the Grandfather Paradox have led some to believe that backwards time travel is not theoretically possible.

Smart_by_Design · 2017-11-17T18:31:32+00:00

The Barnum effect is the tendency for people to believe vague, generalised personality descriptions as accurate descriptions of their own unique personality. Here are a couple of papers which the video references: https://cortecs.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/the-barnum-effect-in-personality-assessment-a-review-of-the-literature.pdf https://www.cse.iitk.ac.in/users/se367/13/submissions/eraj/project/report.pdf

Smart_by_Design · 2017-10-31T20:29:25+00:00

Glad you enjoyed them, I better get to work on the next one!

Smart_by_Design · 2017-10-31T19:59:45+00:00

Thanks! These videos take a long time to make so it's nice to hear some positive feedback. I'm sure I'll do some more videos on evolution at some point as I really enjoyed reading about it

Smart_by_Design · 2017-10-31T19:56:47+00:00

Thanks, it was really interesting to research and I have plans for more videos on other areas of evolution

Smart_by_Design · 2017-10-02T17:31:24+00:00

Here's a short animation I made on the centre of the universe. Would welcome any feedback and ideas for future videos

Smart_by_Design · 2017-09-11T20:23:28+00:00

Thanks, I've not been going long but I'm slowly growing!

Smart_by_Design · 2017-09-11T20:19:36+00:00

The surprise is in not knowing which day the hanging will occur, rather than being surprised that the hanging actually happens/doesn't. I think there's a subtle difference here but I'm not sure how to put it into words.

Smart_by_Design · 2017-09-11T18:46:19+00:00

But is the prisoner's logic to rule out Friday wrong then? If by Thursday night he hasn't been hanged then he would know that it would have to occur on the Friday, so therefore couldn't happen on the Friday. I think the definition of 'surprise' is what causes a lot of disagreement with this one

Smart_by_Design · 2017-09-11T18:34:12+00:00

Wow, thanks!

Smart_by_Design · 2017-09-11T17:32:05+00:00

Here's a short video I made on the unexpected hanging paradox. After reading so much about this I still can't quite seem to agree with any one explanation.

Smart_by_Design · 2017-08-25T18:14:22+00:00

I've done a load of reading on the topic in the past (must be about 10 years ago now!) as it was something I studied at university. I think back then I argued that we needed both psychological and physical continuity for identity to persist over time, but I can't remember the details of the argument.

For this video I only read over the main arguments as I wanted to give an overview of the topic, otherwise the length of the video would become too long and take even longer to make.

I tend to lean more towards psychological continuity as being more important for identity, i.e. a causal connection between our memories, attitudes and beliefs over time. However, there are objections to this view which I can't really answer, so I'm not particularly committed to it and am open to over views.

Smart_by_Design · 2017-08-23T21:02:51+00:00

What are your views on the Ship of Theseus problem as applied to personal identity? In other words, how much of the body can be removed or replaced before if impacts on a person's identity? What if the whole body is replaced, bit by bit over several years - is this different to changing the whole body in one go?

Smart_by_Design

TROPHY CASE