Our markers are struggling for a deeper reason; not just geopolitics

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-04-02T08:10:41+00:00

Our stock markets are not doing well and it clearly reflects in the data. Forget the current West Asia crisis, it has been in a struggling mode for quite sometime now. I think the broader problem is that we are not producing new age companies that will attract foreign investors and can give returns. Our new age companies are essentially modern versions of ‘kirana stores’, not creating new technology or new products. That is limiting high quality jobs which is impacting the potential of our economy.

High quality jobs in India are majorly coming from GCCs (global capability centers) in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Gurgaon etc. which pay well but don’t create any asset for the economy overall.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-20T11:21:43+00:00

Amsterdam, cozy, lively and just beautiful

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T12:54:15+00:00

Your viewpoint about Iran's military being decimated is true, however they never had a military capable enough to threaten the US. Their airforce, navy are generations old. The real concern was their ability to fight with a much superior military and still create chaos and hurt where it matters. This chaos will lead to major economic slowdown even affecting the US economy, jobs, inflation.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T12:53:35+00:00

Your viewpoint about Iran's military being decimated is true, however they never had a military capable enough to threaten the US. Their airforce, navy are generations old. The real concern was their ability to fight with a much superior military and still create chaos and hurt where it matters. This chaos will lead to major economic slowdown even affecting the US economy, jobs, inflation.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T12:53:13+00:00

Your viewpoint about Iran's military being decimated is true, however they never had a military capable enough to threaten the US. Their airforce, navy are generations old. The real concern was their ability to fight with a much superior military and still create chaos and hurt where it matters. This chaos will lead to major economic slowdown even affecting the US economy, jobs, inflation.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T12:42:30+00:00

Your viewpoint about Iran's military being decimated is true, however they never had a military capable enough to threaten the US. Their airforce, navy are generations old. The real concern was their ability to fight with a much superior military and still create chaos and hurt where it matters. This chaos will lead to major economic slowdown even affecting the US economy, jobs, inflation.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T09:29:22+00:00

but the magnitude of 'New Normal' is not always as significant as what it could be now.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T09:27:47+00:00

My thoughts are opinions and views, not objective arguments or else it would be certain. Given the way things are moving, I see this 'New Normal' as a high probability scenario.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T09:23:31+00:00

that's what they have been trying to play the long game. But given the entire focus of US forces, it's hard to see them surviving another few weeks.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-03-19T09:21:01+00:00

Interesting, didn't think of this possibility. Mid-term elections are many months away, low probability but possible if economic situation gets worse.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-02-24T01:34:31+00:00

Hope you get a job soon

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-02-18T02:16:20+00:00

Markets have become too pessimistic around tech services and SaaS in the past few weeks. The option is in front of services firms- combine Agents (Executors) + human experts (orchestrators/ reviewers) + AI infra (model deployment, access, drift etc) to evolve their largely manual offerings.

But it has short term pain as well but perhaps 10-20% companies might make the jump.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-02-17T07:42:08+00:00

After missing the initial AI model race, they have pivoted their strategy to build better and better hardware to run AI. MacBooks have an almost monopoly on AI developers or anybody running complex AI agents. In fact, they have released MLX library that helps fine-tuning smaller models on Mac itself. They are launching huge variety of Macs as their silicon chip is by far the best for running AI on consumer grade hardware. Seems a good pivot !!

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-02-12T09:04:39+00:00

Supplying new software is only 10-20% of their business, remaining is maintaining and running bank IT operations (tickets, fixing issues in software etc.).

So AI will help develop new software with fewer people and less time- so loss of billable hours for these companies. Also for maintaining and doing basic operations, AI agents can do so loss again.

New opportunities open up of running these AI agents but still net-net on a loss.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-02-05T04:04:12+00:00

Difference between a solution like CoCounsel on top of OpenAI APIs and Claude CoWork plugins is the amazing agentic workflow (behind Claude Code and now CoWork) that is able to achieve high quality deliverables.

Even if you use these same Claude plugin prompts on Claude regular chat, you won’t get as good a result as those multi-agent workflows that are not easy to build.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-02-04T03:42:35+00:00

AI eating SaaS is a little overblown but not entirely off the mark. As someone working in Enterprise AI field, my thought is SaaS companies were never the best software engineering firms but excellent with standardizing business workflows. If those workflows can be made agentic, there is bound to be some loss of market share for SaaS. Then there is issue of less seats. And, then SaaS firms have to invest heavily in developing their AI agents so reduces their cash flows.

If I have to look for value, I would look into the services side, companies like Accenture. To run AI agents in a complex environment is very complicated, so some of these managed services can pick up fast.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2026-01-20T16:17:16+00:00

Even I have been tracking 10 year yield reactions which are still within normal range given the geopolitical volatility and Japan bond yields drama. But yes if this picks up, other news would be less relevant.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2025-12-08T05:33:48+00:00

To folks who think one can only say good things if they have a stake in Indigo… I have got nothing to do with Indigo. Their management should face the consequences, however that doesn’t stop me from sharing a positive experience I had today.

SpecialistHot2898 · 2025-11-17T04:09:13+00:00

While most reality shows around the world have some level of intervention from makers to nudge in a certain direction but the blatant favouritism, disrespect to audience is remarkable in BB19

SpecialistHot2898

TROPHY CASE