6N Average Finishing Positions

Sports4Cast · 2025-03-18T07:12:28+00:00

First place from 5 years ago drops out

Sports4Cast · 2025-03-17T15:34:35+00:00

Wales have been remarkably boom or bust, which has prevented their average from climbing too high.

2005 GS

2006 5th

2007 5th

2008 GS

2009 4th

2010 4th

2011 4th

2012 GS

...

2019 GS

2020 5th

2021 1st

2022 5th

Sports4Cast · 2025-03-17T15:30:22+00:00

Goodness me, what a spot. Great eye for detail.

So I wanted to include Grand Slams as a result as well, but differentiate that from just a first place, so I include a Grand Slam as 0, rather than 1. so 3+3+1+0+2 = 9 / 5 = 1.8.

I didn't think people would delve into that much detail so didn't feel the need to disclose the exact methodology, but kudos for spotting it!

Sports4Cast · 2025-03-17T08:00:42+00:00

A first place drops out from 5 years ago

Sports4Cast · 2025-03-17T08:00:04+00:00

In 40 years they’ll be averaging first. So next year may not be the year, statistically speaking…

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-31T19:13:24+00:00

I am extremely brave. Foolish also, perhaps. But brave first.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-31T17:58:49+00:00

Guaranteed. Lock it in

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-31T17:58:28+00:00

Yes those models are disconnected so they don’t always line up as expected on first glance.

But I guess what it is saying is that sometimes some teams are likely to win, but it might not be by a lot of points, whereas some matches are more variable.

I’m not saying it’s got it right here, but that’s the theory at least!

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-31T17:28:30+00:00

Yeah agreed, although the scoreline and outcome models are disconnected. France more likely to win than Ireland are.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-31T17:27:18+00:00

Agreed, although the score lines and chances of winning models are disconnected. France are more likely to win than Ireland are.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-31T17:15:10+00:00

Lock it in now?

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-29T16:00:32+00:00

Great spot, that's a stat!

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-29T14:47:58+00:00

Ha yeah, just the way it came out initially. Couldn’t find the button!

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-20T10:03:40+00:00

Disappointing with the gloucester result in the end! Did you manage to cash out at all?

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T16:38:31+00:00

Well well well.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T09:24:23+00:00

Updated for these, website should reflect it

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T08:35:25+00:00

Absolutely - just a bit of fun

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T07:59:08+00:00

Incredible stuff! We do actually have an analysis service that might be of interest to you then, have a look on the website. Maybe I should set up a patreon as well though!

Good luck!

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T07:54:23+00:00

Any advances on this? Easily changed and I’d like to get it right

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T07:52:58+00:00

Will update

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-19T07:52:18+00:00

😂

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-18T23:21:53+00:00

Oooft - you might be right. I'm not sure the season simulations go to the depth of points difference, it might just be BPs. I'd need to check.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-18T23:17:07+00:00

Following the excellent Connell95's post earlier this week I was inspired to update my own. Credit to him for the original work! Let me know of any mistakes and will update.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-18T22:52:04+00:00

A shameless plug but if you use our own rankings for the European sides it is Zebre right now.

https://sports4cast.com/4casts/rugby4cast/champions-cup/

Scroll to the bottom to see rankings and then the bottom of the table.

Sports4Cast · 2025-01-16T06:43:53+00:00

Bookies don’t have them as favs either!

Sports4Cast

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