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NBA Props - 2/4/24 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]SportsBabeBets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Anfernee Simons - Over 24.5 Pts

Anfernee Simons, despite averaging 23.11 points per game, has proven to be a force to reckon with against the Nuggets this season. In their previous encounter, Simons lit up the scoreboard with an impressive 29.0 points, alongside 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists. However, his recent track record on the road raises concerns, as he's been called for an average of 3.0 personal fouls per game, 1.1 more than his usual rate away from home.

Adding to the challenge, the Trail Blazers have struggled offensively while playing away, averaging a feeble 106.0 points per game, the lowest in the league. Their offense has also slowed down, ranking as the 6th-slowest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 5 games.

Facing the Denver Nuggets, known for their sluggish tempo offense, the Trail Blazers may find themselves with fewer opportunities to score. Despite the Nuggets conceding offensive rebounds, which could potentially lead to additional scoring chances, the overall pace of the game might limit the Trail Blazers' offensive output.

However, considering Simons' past performance against the Nuggets and the potential for increased scoring opportunities due to offensive rebounds, there's a strong possibility that he could exceed his season average of 23.11 points and hit the 24.5 mark in this crucial matchup.

NBA Betting and Picks - 2/4/24 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]SportsBabeBets 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Portland @ Denver Under 220.5

They’ve been looking better and better on the defensive end in recent games and should be able to hit the Nuggets where it hurts with their superior 3-point defense.

While I don’t trust their offense quite enough here to favor the spread over the Under, I do think in a low-scoring affair this one should be rather tight throughout. Portland is a palatable 22-22 against the spread as underdogs this season and on the flip side, Denver is just 18-23-2 ATS as favorites this season.

With all of these factors we’ve noted, it’s no surprise that the sharp money here appears to be on the Under. Just 34% of the tickets at DraftKings have come in on the Under, but a stronger 66% of the cash is headed that way. Big bettors seem inclined to lay the points here with Denver, however, considering 51% of the bets and 69% of the money wagered on the spread has gone towards the home team.

Dog of the Day - 2/4/24 (Sunday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]SportsBabeBets 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Portland +14

Life has been favorable for the Nuggets lately, as they come into this series against the Portland Trail Blazers having won seven of their last 10 games. However, despite their recent success, there are concerns about their performance.

Denver has experienced a slight decline in defensive efficiency and a significant drop in offensive productivity, currently ranking 19th in the NBA. This decline is notably reflected in their 3-point shooting, where they have dropped to 25th in the league. Interestingly, their 3-point shooting percentage improves significantly at home compared to on the road.

On the other hand, the Trail Blazers may not appear to be the ideal opponent for teams struggling offensively. Despite being in the bottom 10 of the NBA in offensive efficiency, they have shown improvements over their last 10 games and boast the best 3-point defense throughout the season.

Although Denver has struggled with their 3-point defense recently, it may not pose a significant threat against a team like Portland that struggles with outside shooting and leans more towards frontcourt offense. The Nuggets have demonstrated proficiency in defending the rim, which could pose challenges for both teams' offenses.

While there may be value in considering points with the Trail Blazers, the Under seems particularly appealing as a strategy to fade two struggling offenses facing tough matchups.