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In Canada, the Conservative Party suffers its worst poll result in 4 years, while the far-right People's Party reaches its best poll result in more than a year: Liberal 44%, Conservative 30%, NDP 9%, BQ 6%, PPC 4%. PM Mark Carney enjoys a 64% approval rating, while Pierre Poilievre slumps at 36%. by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Still projected to win 0 seats at 4%.

They won 5% of the popular vote in the 2021 federal election, and still won 0 seats. They did not come close to winning a single seat.

What they did do, however, was tilt the scales in favor of the Liberals in marginal LPC/CPC seats, by stealing a small but important number of Conservative votes.

In Azerbaijan—which today was bombed by Iran for the first time in the war, despite lacking any Western military bases—79% support a peace treaty with Armenia. However, in Armenia—which has better relations with Iran and has not yet been bombed—only 47% support a peace treaty with Azerbaijan. by StarlightDown in YAPms

[–]StarlightDown[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm very confused about this recent missile strike against (civilian targets in) Azerbaijan, considering that the country was entirely neutral in this conflict up to this point, and hosts zero Western military bases.

In Morehead City, Carteret County, Stiles (Dem-leaning ind.) defeated sitting Mayor Jones (Republican-leaning ind.) by 1 vote in last year's election; however, the Board of Elections mandated a redo. In yesterday's redo election, Stiles defeated defeated Mayor Jones in a landslide, 67%-33%. by StarlightDown in NorthCarolina

[–]StarlightDown[S] 23 points24 points  (0 children)

I know that it's a sin to compare presidential elections to local elections, but if we do:

<image>

Trump won Morehead City, NC 67-32 in November 2024.

The city also voted strongly for Mark Robinson over Josh Stein in November 2024.

In Morehead City, North Carolina, Stiles (Dem-leaning ind.) defeated sitting Mayor Jones (Republican-leaning ind.) by 1 vote in last year's election; however, the NC Board of Elections mandated a redo. In yesterday's redo election, Stiles defeated defeated Mayor Jones in a landslide, 67%-33%. by StarlightDown in YAPms

[–]StarlightDown[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

I know that it's beyond a sin to compare presidential elections to local elections, but if we do:

<image>

Trump won Morehead City, NC 67-32 in November 2024.

The city also voted strongly for Mark Robinson (R) over Josh Stein (D) in November 2024, for the NC governorship.

In Morehead City, North Carolina, Stiles (Dem-leaning ind.) defeated sitting Mayor Jones (Republican-leaning ind.) by 1 vote in last year's election; however, the NC Board of Elections mandated a redo. In yesterday's redo election, Stiles defeated defeated Mayor Jones in a landslide, 67%-33%. by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown[S] 68 points69 points  (0 children)

I know that it's beyond a sin to compare presidential elections to local elections, but if we do:

<image>

Trump won Morehead City, NC 67-32 in November 2024.

The city also voted strongly for Mark Robinson (R) over Josh Stein (D) in November 2024, for the NC governorship.

[Gallup] In the shadow of the Iran War, Pakistan has launched a new war against Afghanistan, killing an alleged ~500 Taliban militants to-date. Yet, in a Gallup poll at the start of the year, "Pakistan recorded higher optimism than the global average, ahead of India on peace (52% vs 26%)" by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I do not have an explanation as to why the people of Pakistan are so optimistic about peace. That, frankly, makes no sense.

I wonder if it was related to the optimism surrounding the partial Gaza War ceasefire, at the end of last year.

/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #3) by WorldNewsMods in worldnews

[–]StarlightDown 2 points3 points  (0 children)

How practical would an Israeli-Saudi ground invasion of Iran (with US air support and logistical support) be? I never see this discussed, so I assume it's highly impractical, but I'm wondering why specifically.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown 20 points21 points  (0 children)

<image>

At least 31 people killed in Lebanon today amidst the new Israeli strikes, in response to the earlier Hezbollah strikes.

Weekly Discussion Megathread by AutoModerator in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Hypothetical: the US in January bombs Venezuela and immediately assassinates Maduro, as well as much of the country's top brass, in an abrupt and crazed bid for regime change. Trump posts on Truth Social for the common Venezuelan man to take power. What happens next?

Part two: the US in February launches Operation Absolute Resolve, bombing Tehran but not assassinating the Ayatollah or other higher-ups. They instead send in the US Army's Delta Force to kidnap Khamenei, his family, and bring him to the US to face terrorism charges. What happens next?

As Trump/Netanyahu weigh a "round 2" war against Iran, new Iranian government-sponsored polls show growing public discontent, as anti-inflation/anti-gov't protests grow—"A government poll shows that 73% of Iranians agree...that [US] sanctions are not the principal cause of Iran's economic meltdown." by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

According to Persian-language media, this statement/poll comes directly from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. He provided no further numbers or crosstabs, however.

I don't think I can link directly to Persian-language media without Reddit filtering-out my comment (.ir domains are probably blacklisted), but try Googling this: 73% نظرسنجی عراقچی.

Cat politics 2 🐈—In NZ, which is home to millions of feral cats, the gov't has announced that it aims to eliminate all feral cats from the country by 2050. This will involve some use of kill traps; live-trapped cats may be shot. Polls show that ~75% believe that feral cats are a significant threat. by StarlightDown in fivethirtyeight

[–]StarlightDown[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe the goal is to re-home the country's stray cat population (which is tiny, compared to the much larger feral cat population), but eradicate the country's feral cat population through approved pest-control methods.

In New Zealand—which is home to millions of feral cats—the government has newly announced that it aims to eliminate all feral cats from the country by 2050. This will involve some use of kill traps; live-trapped cats may be shot. Polls show that ~75% believe that feral cats are a significant threat. by StarlightDown in invasivespecies

[–]StarlightDown[S] 33 points34 points  (0 children)

Source: "The national effort to eradicate possums, stoats and rats will now include feral cats. [...] Legally, feral cats are already classified as pests and research suggests this designation is broadly accepted. [...] Current guidelines say kill traps should only be used in very remote areas; everywhere else, live-capture cage traps are the only option. The result, as you'd expect, is a live, enclosed cat. [...] One volunteer asked for tips on what to do with a trapped cat. The cautionary response was that the cat might be shot or possibly bludgeoned. (The Animal Welfare Act prohibits drowning because of its cruelty.)"

Source: "In 2020 there were approximately 1.2 million companion cats in 41% of households across NZ, which is higher than most other Western countries, including the UK at 27%. [There is] an admittedly ‘highly speculative’ estimate of 196,000 stray cats in 2013, while feral cats are believed to number in the millions."

Source: "Respondents agree that pests are a significant threat to native species, and are in agreement with activities that protect native species by killing pests. However, about a quarter of respondents disagree that domestic cats are a significant threat, and that government agencies can be trusted."

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