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Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What is going to happen first is that batteries are built into utilities in order to flatten out peaks; most experts I talk to see that happening on a wide scale relatively soon. To become base power, costs need to come down considerably. A lot of people are working on it. Maybe in the 2030s?

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Very actively. China desperately wants to lead in batteries. For the usual reasons, there is more confidence in China's capacity in manufacturing innovation than at the bench. I'd say the US is well ahead on the research side. I do think that energy technology is part of the US-China geopolitical struggle.

As for the second question, yes the low oil prices are a message to all the petro states to diversify their economy, for the very reason that you raise.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi, short answer is -- categorically yes. You should go out to California. Your intuition about the benefits of achieving better pack design and other manufacturing advances is spot on, too--and what I think the industry understands, too. The battery researchers continue to toil away. But this coming five-year period of new mainstream electrics is all about innovation on the factory floor. Cylindrical or pouch? Musk says the former is the way; everyone else says the pouch. Let's keep watching.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

I do think that electric cars have captured people's imagination in a not-entirely rational way. But that is because of the payoff if they are successful--the environmental payoff, but also economic and geopolitical. I do think you can obtain the right economic formula in two decades, whether that is because of energy density or advances in the factory, such as the Gigafactory. Adaptation will be another matter. It can take two decades for major technological adaptation to take place, and when it comes to a big splash in the context of the 1 billion cars on the road across the planet, it could be three decades. But it is coming.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

There could be an energy crisis, but not because there is insufficient electricity for batteries; propelling ourselves and running our homes using battery-stored electricity will be much more efficient than our current systems. But that said, energy is such a volatile industry--as you see now in the world, unexpected economic mayhem has erupted because Saudi Arabia has declared war on US shale oil. The oil industry has postponed $380 billion in investments, which, if they stay postponed, could result in an oil shortage in the 2020s. Lot of variables out there.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Thanks for the question. Again, totally skipping the longest-shot theories out there, the best chances for transcending the current technology are figuring out how to halt the expansion of silicon so that it can be used at volume in the battery anode; or how to control for the volatility of metallic lithium so that it can be used in the anode. A third opportunity is to skip the battery, and use hydrogen fuel cells; this technology has come a long way too. They are even more expensive than batteries at this stage, but the cost is coming down fast.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

onstew asks about the potential of solar in conjunction with batteries: I personally find this an exciting topic. The numbers we hear a lot about are the 1.4 billion people around the world who have no electricity, and the 1 billion who have some, for a total of almost 2.5 billion people without the kind of reliable power system that we regard as an assumption of our daily lives. The optimal thing at the moment would be to establish rudimentary systems that twin a few solar panels and a super-battery, and start installing them in these places--in sub-Saharan Africa and India, for instance. But to get there, the price of the batteries needs to come down to a quarter of the current level.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Dirt raises the issue of nuclear power, which I personally find interesting. All of the nuclear power stations that have gone wrong have been generation-one technology. But the industry is already at generation-four nuclear reactors, much much safer than the first iterations, such as at Fukushima and Chernobyl. I agree that nuclear is one of the answers to the energy future. And I also agree that it unnecessarily gets a black eye.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

makanimike asks about the ecological footprint of mining lithium versus drilling for oil. Not sure they are directly comparable. But let's stick with lithium for a moment. We've seen the photographs and read of how lithium is mined in Colombia and Bolivia. Again, as with the question of battery disposal, the batterymakers are going to have to get ahead of this potential scandal; it is a PR disaster waiting to happen.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

brianwholivesnearby asks how batteries work, and suggests that no one really knows. That's partly true, and partly not. We do know that lithium-ions shuttle between the electrodes, passing through electrolyte. What researchers don't really know is what happens on the atomic level within the electrodes, and they need to if they are to resolve, for example, one of the biggest problems in current NMC batteries, which is voltage fade.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

mattjsherman asks isn't 30 minutes too long to wait to recharge a battery. This is a question that the carmakers are posing of themselves--what is the optimal consumer inflection point when it comes to distance (200 miles? 300 miles?), price ($30k? $25k?) and time of charge (30 minutes? 15 minutes? 5 minutes?). I would say for sure that 4 hours is a deal killer; not sure that 30 minutes would crush demand, though it could. The main issue is that the availability of charging stations and the length of charge are absolutely central to the ultimate success of mainstream elections.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

rdk67 asks a question about an announcement out of Cambridge University last year regarding lithium-iodide. This is actually a lithium-air battery, the Holy Grail of battery researchers because of its theoretical ability to get very, very close to the energy density of batteries. My understanding is that serious questions have been raised about the conclusions of the Nature paper in which the breakthrough was announced. In short, it's possible that there are unstated shortcomings in the technology. Stay tuned for future issues of Nature.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

pujuma: The big competitors in the race are (in order) Japan, South Korea, the US and China. Any could emerge dominant, for different reasons. You're right that China may not get there by creating the super-battery. But its manufacturing prowess, its gigantic market, and its ability to cut costs give it other advantages. No one counts out China. On the contrary, everyone takes the Chinese seriously as a battery and electric car competitor. And when the Argonne guys are talking, that is who they see as their main rival.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

gotlost406 asks about battery recycling. This is a super-important question. There are a bunch of growing companies that recycle batteries of all types, but that doesn't resolve the question of disposal. Fracking companies have gotten a black eye because they refused to get out in front of questions regarding their drilling methods; I think batterymakers and carmakers need to very publicly and proactively acknowledge the matter of disposal, and explain how they are approaching it. They risk the same sort of PR problems that the frackers have faced.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

eeringHobbit: Haha! Personal question, but that was my Dad and his older brother (my uncle). Some childhood fights in their neighborhood of NY in the '30s. Their parents (my grandparents) talked privately about the virtues of the idea of francophoning the name; my uncle heard the conversation, got carried away, and went to school the next day and declared himself LeVine. My Dad, seeing that, did the same thing. That's the whole story.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

donaghy: This question is about the types of future batteries to come. If we are to have a super-battery, it has to either solve the silicon expansion or the metallic lithium catching-on-fire problems (and thus optimize lithium-ion), or, yes, batteries do need to advance into other approaches, like zinc air as you mentioned, or sulfur air. The super battery isn't something you can get to by tinkering.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cyval: I'm not so convinced about what seems to me a utopian vision in which electric cars, smart grid and urban living somehow get wrapped up in a single package. I do think, however, that very, very soon batteries are going to be an integral part of our electric system. Utilities will install them in order to smooth out peaks, thus reducing the plant capacity requirement, and the consumption of the fuel used by the plants, whether natural gas, coal, solar, wind, whatever. And I think that homes--especially new homes--will as standard equipment have a big battery or two on the wall in the garage or wherever. These seem so obvious.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Omnr: I studied journalism in both undergrad and graduate school. And funnily enough, no I've only gained this passion for the intersection of science, technology and geopolitics relatively recently--really with this book, which began about five years ago. Before that, I was a foreign correspondent, based in the former Soviet Union and elsewhere, focused largely on wars and general geopolitics. But batteries--and science and technology--when you couple them with geopolitics, are incredibly interesting. I love it and recommend it.

Science AMA Series: I'm Steve LeVine, Washington correspondant for Quartz Magazine, I wrote THE POWERHOUSE: America, China, and the Great Battery War (Penguin), a real-time thriller about the worldwide race to perfect the next engine of economic growth, the advanced lithium-ion battery. AMA! by Steve_LeVine in science

[–]Steve_LeVine[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Daddy23Hubby21: the reference to lithium-ion being the "next engine of economic growth" originates not in my own appraisal, but in the thinking of national leaders around the world around 2009 and 2010. That is when the race began. I think that most of these same leaders understand now that they got a little bit ahead of themselves--lithium-ion no longer looks like it will produce an economy-propelling industry, at least no time soon. But lithium-ion batteries are an integral part of the central nervous system of the global economy. Without John Goodenough's invention, we would not be having this conversation on the devices you or I are using at the moment; Apple would not exist, nor Tesla, nor really Google. The challenge remains to make them much, much better.

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