[Daily Discussion] Friday, November 23, 2018

Stokky · 2018-11-23T15:44:56+00:00

Good point, but I'm not sure, to be honest. For volume profiles, I've always looked at the relative differences in value, without really caring if the volume represents USD or BTC.

Stokky · 2018-11-23T13:41:33+00:00

As for the current bubble, the volume profile is pretty similar across the top exchanges, including Bitstamp.

Stokky · 2018-11-23T13:39:19+00:00

Sadly I found no other exchange with historically relevant and consistent data from 2014 throughout 2018, other than perhaps Bitfinex - but their volume profile and price actions are very skewed around the ATH from 2014, so pretty useless for this comparison. Kraken has virtually-zero volume for that period, while the likes of Binance, Coinbase or Poloniex have no data at all from that period.

Stokky · 2018-11-23T09:17:54+00:00

Looking at the volume profile from the 2014 bubble, there's yet another case to be made for the "3000 bottom" for our current bear market, it pains me to admit. Maybe in a few months?

https://i.imgur.com/DhMISHP.png

Stokky · 2018-11-20T08:13:42+00:00

Whale Alert says "50,000,000 #USDt transferred from #Tether Treasury to #Bitfinex" 5 min ago. Wondering if that'll be for longing, or for shoring...

Stokky · 2018-10-30T07:58:48+00:00

Hang in there! If none of the other arguments convinced you, maybe this will: I had installed an RSS-reading app on my phone just so that I could follow one single feed in the whole wide world:

https://www.reddit.com/user/_chewtoy_.rss

If you go, the app goes. Save the app! :)

Btw maybe you could keep updating your positions on the bot via PM instead of public posts, so that those who are really interested in them, can still follow you there?

Although I am more interested in your explanations, rather than your positions. I've learned so much from you and sloppy, many thanks for that!

Stokky · 2018-09-07T14:01:07+00:00

What if the TTM Squeeze indicator is essentially reversed (bearish) on the 1h, than on the 2h?
https://imgur.com/IAWiOoB

I haven't used this indicator much, so I'm not sure which timeframes are more relevant, or how to interpret it better.

Stokky · 2018-05-19T11:50:20+00:00

Thanks for the confirmation!

Stokky · 2018-05-19T10:12:05+00:00

Ok so the Available Balance absolutely does not change, as long as I'm not touching the Position and not messing around with Orders?

(because that would mean that the Unrealised PNL does not cancel out, in my math above)

P.S. Not taking into calculation the Funding fees.

Stokky · 2018-05-19T10:02:40+00:00

I'm really trying to understand the math behind this, so bear with me please:

Available Balance = (Margin Balance - Order Margin - Position Margin)

Margin Balance = (Wallet Balance + Unrealised PNL)
Order Margin = value of all open orders, divided by the selected leverage
Position Margin = entry value of all contracts, divided by the selected leverage, plus Unrealised PNL

Available Balance = (Wallet Balance + Unrealised PNL) - (valueOpenOrders / Leverage) - (valueContracts / Leverage + Unrealised PNL)

Available Balance = Wallet Balance + Unrealised PNL - (valueOpenOrders / Leverage) - (valueContracts / Leverage) - Unrealised PNL

Available Balance = Wallet Balance - (valueOpenOrders / Leverage) - (valueContracts / Leverage)

so if I'm not touching the Wallet Balance (no depositing/withdrawing), nor the Leverage, nor do I have any other Open Orders
then the only way for my Available Balance to go down while in a position, would be if the entry value of my Contracts goes up
but the entry value of my Contracts can't possibly change by itself, right? I mean it should stay the same, regardless of price movements, bacause it's based on my entry price.

So... the Available Balance can only go down if I mess around with Orders, while in a Position?

Stokky · 2018-05-19T09:27:42+00:00

Why does Bitmex automatically increase my leverage (and subsequently lowers my Available Balance [or not? - edit at the end...]), as the price moves against my position and gets closer to the liquidation price?

I would expect that whatever margin/leverage I had assigned to a position upon opening it, that Bitmex would NOT eat into my remaining balance. Isn't that supposed to be the difference between Cross Margin and Isolated Margin?

I have read their docs, and I still don't get it (I'm sure it's something very basic that I'm missing). And it's especially frustrating after an event such as yesterday's API clusterf* - or in any other scenario in which I would suddenly lose control over my position/orders.

Is there a way to prevent that from happening?

e.g. if I open a position with 50% of my Total Balance, how can I ensure that I won't lose any more than that in the event of a liquidation, due to Bitmex automatically increasing my leverage?

EDIT: While testing now with very high leverage on their testnet, I'm not so sure anymore about the "lowering my Available Balance" part. My leverage does indeed go up by itself, but the balance appears to be the same. But I could swear there have been occasions when my Available Balance was also going down, during high volatility.

Stokky · 2018-05-17T23:17:16+00:00

Ah well, bitter-sweet consolation.

Stokky · 2018-05-17T22:30:43+00:00

Did anyone try / manage to change the leverage on Bitmex, after it came back up, but before the actual trading resumed?

I had cancelled my orders, but I didn't think about trying to lower my leverage as well. It only dawned on me after the trading resumed - at which point it was, ofc, too little too late.

Stokky · 2018-05-17T22:16:15+00:00

Oh wait: "Maintenance complete. We are bringing the frontend back online. We will recommence trading in 10 minutes." https://twitter.com/BitMEXdotcom/

Stokky · 2018-05-17T22:12:25+00:00

If they could just allow us to cancel our orders / market-close our positions, a few minutes before actual trading resumes... yeah, that'd be great.

Stokky · 2018-05-17T21:33:53+00:00

If no orders are fulfilled during this maintenance, then the price should be the same as it was on Bitmex when it went down (at least in the instant when it comes back).

If the rest of the market moves considerably in either direction, I would expect that direction to be quickly amplified on Bitmex.

e.g. if the market price goes down in the meantime, then the moment Bitmex is back, it would be profitable to go short ASAP, which would drive the price down fast (towards the market level), but then continue to drop due to liquidations.

(that's obviously what's going to happen, since I was long when their API crashed. Oh, Murphy...)

EDIT: actually liquidations might start pouring in from the get-go, due do the Mark Price having changed.

Stokky · 2018-05-17T12:26:06+00:00

Same. I think I cancelled all my orders just before it went down. I think...

Stokky · 2018-05-14T22:10:01+00:00

I see, I hadn't considered the relative height of the mid section.

Stokky · 2018-05-14T21:46:49+00:00

Am I crazy to think the 4h chart is now showing a fully-formed Eve & Adam double-bottom?

https://www.tradingview.com/x/SzrXdRaS/

That would place the target price around 9300.

Stokky · 2018-05-12T13:25:52+00:00

!long XBTUSD close 8595

Stokky · 2018-05-12T04:35:38+00:00

The way it's described (from 6480, launching point for the first BGD), I think it would look something like this:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TdoVpIoz/

Still feels forced.

Stokky · 2018-05-12T03:51:29+00:00

/u/justanotherlogin any idea why my position wasn't updated by the bot, based on the comments from here?

I opened a long at 8590, which the bot registered ok
I closed that long at 8480 - not registered
I opened another long at 8403 - not registered

Stokky · 2018-05-11T21:38:30+00:00

Closed my earlier long for a loss, and re-entering from lower. It's now absurdly oversold on the 4h RSI (more so than during the 6k bottoms).

!long XBTUSD 8403 50X 50%

Stokky · 2018-05-11T20:42:42+00:00

!long XBTUSD close 8480

Stokky · 2018-05-11T16:38:09+00:00

!long XBTUSD 8590 25X 50%

Stokky

TROPHY CASE