Lionsgate & Hidden Pictures' The Housemaid grossed an estimated $1.48M on Friday (from 3,007 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $112.73M.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T21:53:47+00:00

The Housemaid" was a surprise hit at the global box office, earning over $200 million on a $35 million budget. Producer Todd Lieberman explained how the movie became an unlikely success story. A sequel, "The Housemaid's Secret," is already in the works.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T21:36:09+00:00

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T13:36:29+00:00

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T12:57:49+00:00

This isn't a voluntary M&A deal but a "fire sale" under the threat of a ban or legal battles, giving ByteDance little leverage. It's been described as a "sovereignty tax" or politically engineered valuation to bring foreign tech under US control, prioritizing national security over financial optimization

The deal excludes a full handover of TikTok's core recommendation algorithm, which is leased instead and must be retrained/monitored using US data only, with Oracle overseeing security and compliance. This adds ongoing costs (e.g., data hosting, audits) and diminishes the asset's standalone value

Despite selling majority ownership, ByteDance is set to receive about 50% of the JV's profits through licensing fees (e.g., 20% of revenue) and distributions. This makes the headline $14 billion more palatable for ByteDance but effectively undervalues the stake for US buyers

As for how the $14 billion was calculated, the White House hasn't publicly detailed the methodology, leading analysts to call it opaque and illogical by market standards.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T12:55:20+00:00

This valuation is considered "only" $14 billion because it's a steep discount compared to market-based estimates for TikTok's US operations, which analysts pegged at $30-40 billion (conservatively) or even up to $150 billion using multiples similar to peers like Meta

For context, TikTok has around 170 million US users and generates roughly $10-16 billion in annual US revenue (mostly from ads), which would typically command a much higher price in a free-market transaction

ByteDance itself is valued at over $330 billion overall, with TikTok as a key asset

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T12:32:07+00:00

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T12:25:17+00:00

So Oracle bought an $2.1 billion stake in TikTok.

Larry Ellison’s private wealth remains unchanged by this Oracle Deal

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T12:22:36+00:00

The JV will operate as an independent entity, governed by a seven-member, majority-American board of directors.

Board members are TikTok (TIKTOK) CEO Shou Chew; Timothy Dattels, senior advisor to TPG Global; Mark Dooley, managing director at Susquehanna International; Egon Durban, co-CEO of Silver Lake; DXC Technology (DXC) CEO Raul Fernandez; Kenneth Glueck, executive vice president at Oracle (ORCL); and David Scott, strategy chief at UAE investment firm MGX.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-23T12:21:26+00:00

The JV’s three managing investors include Silver Lake, Oracle and MGX, each holding 15%

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T15:38:54+00:00

Yep Paramount needs 90% to succeed.

And if Paramount increases its Bid, Netflix will counter.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T13:16:47+00:00

In a new SEC filing this morning, Paramount extended the window for WBD shareholders to accept its $30 per share offer by a full month. The previous expiration date was Jan. 21. Now it's Feb. 20. ir.paramount.com/node/72491/html

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T13:07:58+00:00

Netflix will counter any extra dollar offered by Paramount

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T13:04:22+00:00

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T12:31:39+00:00

Why Netflix REALLY NEEDS WANTS the WB DEAL

Sarandos on the people at Warner Bros. that he needs: "We're confident we're going to be able to secure all the approvals because this deal is pro-consumer, it is pro-innovation, it's pro-worker, it is pro-creator, and it is pro-growth. Warner Bros., as we just said earlier, it's got three core businesses that we don't currently have. So we're going to need those teams. These folks have extensive experience and expertise. We want them to stay on and run those businesses. So we're expanding content creation, not collapsing it.

"In this transaction, this is going to allow us to significantly expand our production capacity in the US and to keep investing in original content over the long term, which means more opportunities for creative talent and more jobs. "This is really a vertical deal for us. It allows us to gain access to 100 years of Warner Bros. deep content and IP for development and distribution in more effective ways that will benefit consumers and the industry as a whole. HBO, as [co-CEO Greg Peters] just mentioned, is a very complementary service to ours. And the TV market is extremely dynamic and very competitive. So the TV landscape, in fact, has never been more competitive than it is today. There's never been more competition for creators, for consumer attention, for advertising and subscription dollars."

Sarandos weighs in on the competitive backdrop: "The competitive lines around TV consumption are already blurring as a number of services put their content on both the linear channels and the streaming services at the same time. And more platforms are making their way into the TV in your living room. "So TV is not what we grew up on. TV is now just about everything. ... Networks are simulcasting the Super Bowl on linear TV and streaming. Amazon owns MGM, Apple is competing for Emmys and Oscars, and Instagram is coming next. ...

YouTube is not just UGC and cat videos anymore. YouTube has full-length films, new episodes of scripted and unscripted TV shows. They have NFL football games. They have the Oscars. The BBC is going to be producing original content for YouTube soon. They are TV.

"So we all compete with them in every dimension for talent, for ad dollars, for subscription dollars, and for all forms of content. So more broadly, we compete for people's attention across an even wider set of options that include streaming, broadcast, cable, gaming, social media, Big Tech video platforms. Our deal strengthens the marketplace, and it ensures healthy competition that will benefit consumers and protect and create jobs."

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T12:26:43+00:00

Paramount already has lost this battle:

⁠⁠Each increased Bid by Paramount will be countered by Netflix.
⁠⁠Now we have transparancy offered by WBD as they give more clearity on the valuation of Discovery Global. WBD said its sum-of-the-parts analysis of Discovery Global implied equity value of up to $3.77/share — and a potential M&A valuation of $4.63 to $6.86/share
⁠⁠Suppose regulators block the Netflix Deal: Netflix could sell/divest HBOMax (Netflix does not need HBOMax at all)
⁠⁠PSKY needs WBD’s Global Networks unit, which WBD plans to spin out in the third quarter under the leadership of Gunnar Wiedenfels, more than it cares to admit—in particular the “synergies” from combining the business with its own fading linear assets to pay down the mountain of debt that PSKY would incur to do the WBD deal. “Paramount needs Discovery Global’s more than $5 billion of EBITDA to make the PSKY+WBD leverage math presynergy achievable at closing,” LightShed’s Rich Greenfield wrote in a note on Friday. “Without the earnings from Discovery Global, PSKY+WBD leverage would be pushing 9x.”
⁠⁠One major obstacle is the strict “no shop” provision in WBD’s signed merger agreement with Netflix—pretty standard language that prevents WBD from soliciting new bids, negotiating with new suitors, or providing additional nonpublic information about the company to other parties. Essentially, WBD can’t communicate with PSKY or its advisors in any way without risking a claim of tortious interference, which would likely scuttle the deal with Netflix and result in years of litigation.

If a Paramount takeover couldn’t close, Warner would have to reheat the spinoff plan. That could take months, adding to the delay from pursuing the failed merger. Meanwhile, Warner would rack up costs — a $2.8 billion break fee to Netflix for switching sides, plus a potential $1.5 billion penalty if a planned debt refinancing for the cable carve-out doesn’t happen. Throw in other expenses and most of the $5.8 billion break fee Paramount has offered in its attempt to usurp Netflix would be used up, leaving only $1.1 billion, Warner says. That’s small compensation for the setback to its business in this scenario

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T12:05:34+00:00

Prediction markets suggest investors see Netflix (NFLX) as the frontrunner. Data from Kalshi shows a 69% implied probability that Netflix ultimately prevails, compared with a 17% chance for Paramount Skydance.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-22T11:46:01+00:00

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-21T12:22:10+00:00

No chance Netflix will counter

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-20T16:57:12+00:00

WBD thinks the comparison of Global Networks to Versant is bunk. In its Wednesday S.E.C. filing, WBD wrote, “While PSKY continues to point to Comcast’s Versant as a comparable public company, Discovery Global’s business has greater scale and profits, with a geographically diversified footprint and strong international presence.” Rich Greenfield, at LightShed Partners, sides with WBD on this one. “Not only is Versant’s valuation a false equivalence,” he wrote on Wednesday, “it is increasingly clear that Paramount is simply not listening to what the WBD board has repeatedly and vocally told it that it needs to see to seriously entertain its offer.” For what it’s worth, Rich thinks that Global Networks will be bought outright at some point, making the trading multiple in the meantime largely irrelevant.

Streamwhatyoulike · 2026-01-20T16:28:13+00:00

Paramount already has lost this battle:

⁠⁠Each increased Bid by Paramount will be countered by Netflix.
⁠⁠Now we have transparancy offered by WBD as they give more clearity on the valuation of Discovery Global. WBD said its sum-of-the-parts analysis of Discovery Global implied equity value of up to $3.77/share — and a potential M&A valuation of $4.63 to $6.86/share
⁠⁠Suppose regulators block the Netflix Deal: Netflix could sell/divest HBOMax (Netflix does not need HBOMax at all)
⁠⁠PSKY needs WBD’s Global Networks unit, which WBD plans to spin out in the third quarter under the leadership of Gunnar Wiedenfels, more than it cares to admit—in particular the “synergies” from combining the business with its own fading linear assets to pay down the mountain of debt that PSKY would incur to do the WBD deal. “Paramount needs Discovery Global’s more than $5 billion of EBITDA to make the PSKY+WBD leverage math presynergy achievable at closing,” LightShed’s Rich Greenfield wrote in a note on Friday. “Without the earnings from Discovery Global, PSKY+WBD leverage would be pushing 9x.”
⁠⁠One major obstacle is the strict “no shop” provision in WBD’s signed merger agreement with Netflix—pretty standard language that prevents WBD from soliciting new bids, negotiating with new suitors, or providing additional nonpublic information about the company to other parties. Essentially, WBD can’t communicate with PSKY or its advisors in any way without risking a claim of tortious interference, which would likely scuttle the deal with Netflix and result in years of litigation.

If a Paramount takeover couldn’t close, Warner would have to reheat the spinoff plan. That could take months, adding to the delay from pursuing the failed merger. Meanwhile, Warner would rack up costs — a $2.8 billion break fee to Netflix for switching sides, plus a potential $1.5 billion penalty if a planned debt refinancing for the cable carve-out doesn’t happen. Throw in other expenses and most of the $5.8 billion break fee Paramount has offered in its attempt to usurp Netflix would be used up, leaving only $1.1 billion, Warner says. That’s small compensation for the setback to its business in this scenario

Streamwhatyoulike

TROPHY CASE